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Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has initiated coverage of Trevi Therapeutics (NASDAQ:TRVI) with an “overweight” rating and a price target of $18.
The brokerage flags Trevi’s development of Haduvio, an oral, extended-release formulation of nalbuphine, for chronic cough.
The analysts underscores that chronic cough, while often underestimated, is a debilitating condition that affects millions in the United States and currently has limited treatment options.
Existing therapies either provide insufficient relief or carry significant risks, such as abuse potential and respiratory depression.
The initiation notes that Haduvio has shown consistent and meaningful clinical benefit across trials, with placebo-adjusted reductions in cough frequency of more than 40% in three separate mid-stage studies.
This efficacy was demonstrated across different patient populations, including those with refractory or unexplained chronic cough and patients with cough linked to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).
Trevi’s lead program is in IPF-related chronic cough, which affects about 150,000 patients in the U.S.
The company plans to meet with the FDA in the second half of 2025 to discuss its Phase 3 program, with the trial expected to begin in the first half of 2026.
Morgan Stanley’s valuation reflects risk-adjusted peak sales of about $900 million in IPF-related cough, where the probability of success is estimated at 75%, and roughly $1.6 billion in refractory or unexplained chronic cough, with a probability of success of 60%.
Morgan Stanley’s analysis also points to the potential upside from development in non-IPF interstitial lung disease, though this is not included in its current model.
Trevi reported $203.9 million in cash at the end of the second quarter of 2025, which it expects will fund operations into 2029, covering pivotal Phase 3 trials and additional studies.