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Investing.com -- U.S. bond firm PIMCO highlighted on Tuesday that the diminishing business and consumer confidence due to President Donald Trump’s policies is reducing the advantage U.S. capital markets once had over global counterparts. This shift is encouraging investors to consider a more global diversification strategy.
On April 2, Trump is expected to introduce "reciprocal tariffs," which will align U.S. duties with those of other nations. This move could potentially exacerbate a market downturn instigated by his economic policies. This downturn has already led to U.S. stocks experiencing their most disappointing three-month period since 2022.
In a report penned by Tiffany Wilding, an economist, and Andrew Balls, the chief investment officer for global fixed income, PIMCO shared that the decline in both business and consumer confidence could imply that the U.S. economic and financial-market exceptionalism of recent years might be waning. They noted that the U.S. signaling a retreat from some traditional responsibilities is challenging long-standing assumptions about the country’s reliable international leadership role.
PIMCO anticipates that U.S. protectionist policies will reignite inflation and slow U.S. economic growth this year and next. Conversely, increased government spending in Europe could enhance those nations’ economic outlooks.
The California-based fund manager, which handles nearly $2 trillion in assets, argued for diversifying away from high-priced U.S. equities towards a broader mix of global, high-quality bonds. PIMCO also pointed out that while European fiscal expansion could stimulate growth, it could make their bonds less appealing. Instead, PIMCO favors the UK and Australia for ’duration’, or exposure to bonds that could benefit from interest rate cuts.
PIMCO also anticipates the beginning of a multi-year phase where fixed income assets, such as corporate and sovereign bonds, may outperform equities. PIMCO advised that in this unusually uncertain macroeconomic environment, it is wise to prioritize simple, stable investments over attempting to predict the unpredictable.
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