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Investing.com -- On Wednesday, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James initiated coverage on Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) with a Market Perform rating, citing concerns over the sustainability of its impressive growth and elevated valuation.
While acknowledging Robinhood’s disruptive impact on online brokerage and its strong recent performance, the firm remains cautious about its long-term risk/reward profile.
“Despite all those positives, however, we believe the company’s current valuation requires one to underwrite sustainably high transaction volumes and/or limited downside to short-term interest rates, assumptions we are not comfortable forecasting,” the analysts wrote.
Robinhood’s fourth-quarter results are expected to be strong, with transaction-based revenues forecasted to rise about 230% year-over-year.
The firm noted that crypto trading revenues are expected to jump nearly 800%, driven by post-election activity and Robinhood’s pricing strategies.
However, Raymond James remains skeptical about whether this momentum can last, pointing out that “over Robinhood’s history we have seen periods of transaction revenue strength subsequently retrace lower.”
The firm highlighted Robinhood’s multiple long-term growth drivers, including expanding services in crypto, futures, index options, and international markets, as well as strong client deposit growth.
However, it warned that lower short-term interest rates would weigh on net interest income growth, which accounts for nearly half of Robinhood’s revenue.
“Rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have already and are likely to continue to impact net interest income for the foreseeable future,” the analysts stated.
Raymond James established a fair value of $47 per share, applying a 24x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is above the one-year average of 20x due to near-term momentum. The firm’s bull case sees a 79% upside, while its bear case projects a 67% downside.