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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has revised LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE:LYB) N.V.’s outlook to negative while affirming its ratings, citing challenging conditions in the petrochemicals industry expected to persist through 2027.
The rating agency points to subdued macroeconomic conditions and an extremely oversupplied market as key challenges for the company. These difficult conditions began in the second half of 2022 and are predicted to remain pressured for at least the next two years due to supply and demand imbalances.
Current market conditions are characterized by weak demand across various end markets and regions, with Europe and Asia experiencing significant pressure. Demand remained sluggish throughout the first half of 2025 as consumer spending continues to be limited by persistent inflation, tariff uncertainties, and weaker-than-expected performance in housing and automotive markets.
The situation is further complicated by considerable new capacity additions, especially in China, which is pushing toward self-sufficiency goals. Significant capacity is still scheduled to come online for the remainder of 2025, 2026, and 2027, primarily from Chinese competitors.
LyondellBasell recently announced an agreement with AEQUITA for the sale of four olefins and polyolefins assets in Europe. These assets represent approximately 30% of LyondellBasell’s capacity in the olefins and polyolefins Europe, Asia, and international segment, which had total 2024 sales of approximately $10.9 billion.
S&P expects LyondellBasell’s 2025 EBITDA to deteriorate to modestly below 2020 levels, when its adjusted EBITDA was about $4.1 billion. The company’s adjusted EBITDA declined to below $4.5 billion on a last-12-months basis ending March 31, 2025, from about $10 billion during the peak in 2021 and early 2022.
The rating agency forecasts materially negative discretionary cash flow in 2025, given expectations of adjusted 2025 EBITDA near $4 billion and LTM March 2025 dividends of around $1.75 billion.
Despite these challenges, LyondellBasell has reduced its adjusted debt balance by over $4 billion as of March 2025, compared with over $16.5 billion at the end of 2020. The company also announced a $0.03 per share increase for the dividend in the second quarter of 2025, marking its 15th consecutive year of dividend increases.
To maintain its current ’BBB’ issuer-credit rating, S&P expects LyondellBasell to maintain weighted-average adjusted funds from operations to debt of 30%-45%. The rating agency forecasts credit metrics will remain below this level through 2025 but improve to this range in 2026-2027.
During its first-quarter 2025 earnings call, LyondellBasell highlighted that it is targeting $500 million of incremental cash flow from capital expenditure reductions, working capital improvements, and fixed-cost reductions.
The company continues to leverage its position as a leading global petrochemical producer with access to low-cost shale gas, particularly in North America, which provides a sustainable competitive advantage over European counterparts.
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