TSX finishes lower on tariff-driven volatility

Published 08/04/2025, 12:12
Updated 08/04/2025, 22:18
© Reuters

Investing.com - Canada's main stock market fell on the day despite a strong start, as analysts gauged the ongoing fallout from the imposition of new tariffs on both friends and foes alike by U.S. President Donald Trump.

By 12:00 ET, the S&P/TSX 60 index had advanced by 16 points, or 1.2%. However, the index closed at 4:00 ET down 20.2 points or 1.5%.

In a similar fashion, the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index saw an uptick throughout the day, but closed up 352.6 points or 1.5% lower. The results come after dropping by 334.01 points, or 1.4%, in the prior session, hovering around a seven-month low. Sentiment was dented by lingering fears that Trump's expanding trade war could spark a global economic recession.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has flagged that the risks of a U.S. recession have increased significantly because of Trump's tariff policies, warning that this could have a negative impact on the Canadian economy as well. More Canadian firms also see a chance of a recession happening in the next year, a Bank of Canada survey showed.

Since touching a record closing high on January 30, the index has now slid by 12.9%, placing it in correction territory. However, the decline is less than that registered by the benchmark S&P 500 during that period.

Trump said he was not considering a pause on the tariffs, which include a minimum 10% levy for all U.S. imports and targeted rates of up to 50%, to allow for negotiations with trading partners. But he noted that he was open to speaking with China, Japan and other countries.

Markets are still attempting to understand if the Trump administration plans to impose the tariffs permanently or use them as cudgel during negotiations with trading partners. On Monday, Trump said "both can be true."

U.S. stocks jump... then drop

U.S. stock indexes soared, before also falling in the latter half of the trading day. This follows heavy volatility in the prior session, amid a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the future trajectory of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.

At 12:05 ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 935.5 points, or 2.5%, S&P 500 rose 128 points, or 2.5%, and Nasdaq Composite surged by 391.7 points, or 2.5%.

By the 4:00 ET close, the Dow finished down 320 points or 0.8%, the S&P 500 fell 79.5 points or 1.6%, and the Nasdaq lost 335.4 points or 2.2%.

The main Wall Street indices logged wild swings during regular trading on Monday, with sharp opening losses being overturned after a report -- eventually deemed to be false -- that the Trump administration was considering a reprieve from the tariffs.

The blue-chip Dow and benchmark S&P 500 both finished modestly lower following the rollercoaster trading activity, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq edged up by 0.1%.

These swings led to a surge in the VIX, widely known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, to levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a sell-off in March 2020, while volumes on Wall Street were the highest trading in at least 18 years at roughly 29 billion shares.

Nevertheless, the S&P 500 has lost more than 10% over the past four trading sessions.

Crude mixed after plunge, Oil trades at four-year lows

Oil prices were mixed following a prolonged sell-off on fears the Trump administration’s tariffs would result in a global recession, hitting demand for crude. 

At 5:10 ET, Brent was slightly higher, gaining 0.26% to $61.76 per barrel after its fall throughout the day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures diminished by 4.1%, pricing in at $58.22 per barrel.

Both contracts have tumbled by over 14% since Trump’s April 2 announcement of tariffs on all imports, but have recouped some of those losses in a relief rally. Despite this, Oil prices are trading at four-year lows.

Gold mixed

Gold prices were mixed on Tuesday, as the safe haven had trouble withstanding the tariff-induced fears of investors.

As of 5:15 ET, XAU/USD fell to $2,982.16 per ounce. Gold Futures rose 0.8% to $2,998.15/oz.

Gold fell below $3,000 per ounce in the previous session to hit its lowest level since March 13 as traders liquidated their positions to cover losses in other financial markets.

“Gold is traditionally a safe haven, but sometimes investors sell it along with other asset classes to cover losses elsewhere,” ING analysts said in a note.

(Scott Kanowsky also contributed to this article)

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