TSX lower ahead of key inflation data

Published 17/11/2025, 13:34
Updated 17/11/2025, 22:16
© Reuters

Investing.com -  Canada’s main stock exchange ended lower on Monday, as investors awaited a fresh batch of domestic inflation data.

By 4.01 ET, the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract was down by 14 point or 0.82%, 

The S&P/TSX Composite shed 250 points or 0.83% at 30,076.21. 

Index ended higher by 0.2% at 30,326.46 on Friday, helping the average increase by 1.4% for the week despite a series of swings in either direction during the period.

Attention now turns to Canada’s headline consumer price index, which has inched higher in recent months to marginally above policymakers’ preferred target level, casting some doubt on the potential for future rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.

In individual shares, the board of Canada’s Barrick Mining is eyeing the possibility of splitting the firm into two separate entities, Reuters has reported.

U.S. stocks down

U.S. stocks were down on Monday as investors remained cautious ahead of the restart of official U.S. economic data as well as earnings from artificial intelligence-darling Nvidia.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 556 points, or 1.2%, the S&P 500 index index dropped 0.9%, and the, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.8%.

The main indices logged a mixed close on Friday, with the NASDAQ Composite outperforming as tech stocks rebounded. However, the averages have suffered sharp losses over the past two weeks as investors pared expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.

Key economic data set to emerge

The end of the prolonged U.S. government shutdown means that economic data will start to flow once more this week, with new figures on employment and inflation from the world’s largest economy set to be released.

One of the big publications in the days ahead will be September’s U.S. jobs report, due out on Thursday, although comments from the White House have appeared to suggest that October data could, at least, be truncated.

Crucially, these numbers are likely to figure into how the Federal Reserve approaches its final interest rate decision of the year in December.

The Fed slashed rates at its previous two gatherings, but concerns that the central bank is effectively flying blind without up-to-date economic readings have led to bets that policymakers will keep borrowing costs steady next month.

Markets are now pricing in just over a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, down from over 60% earlier this month.

Nvidia’s earnings to dominate the week ahead

Turning to the corporate sector, the main event this week is the release of Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) earnings after the close on Wednesday, which are shaping as a test for the artificial-intelligence bull run.

Analysts expect the company to post another bumper quarter, but expectations are riding very high given the artificial intelligence bellwether’s massive $5 trillion valuation.

Nvidia was at the heart of a sharp sell-down in tech stocks through late-October and early-November, as investors questioned an AI-fueled spike in tech valuations.

Caution over Nvidia was furthered by filings over the weekend showing that billionaire investor Peter Thiel offloaded his nearly $100 million stake in the semiconductor giant.

Beyond Nvidia, there are also earnings from major retailers this week, including Target and Walmart on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

The two, along with prints from Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe’s Companies and TJX Companies are set to provide more cues on the U.S. consumer.

Crude steady after previous gains

Oil prices stabilized after strong gains after Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed crude loadings, easing immediate concerns over supply disruption.

Brent futures dropped 0.2% to $64.27 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $59.95 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had surged more than 2% on Friday after Ukraine launched a high-profile attack on Novorossiysk and a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, causing damage and halting exports equivalent to roughly 2% of global supply.

By Sunday, however, media reports said that tanker-tracking data showed tankers were again loading crude at the port.

Gold hovers around flatline

Gold prices were mostly unchanged, as traders gauged expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates next month.

The yellow metal was pressured by a stronger dollar, while increased risk-aversion, amid bets on delayed rate cuts and heightened economic uncertainty, also did little to deter gold’s losses.

Spot gold was broadly flat at $4,079.01 an ounce, while gold futures for December fell 0.3% to $4,079.96/oz.

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