Tui AG shares drop 8% on weaker M&A performance and cautious outlook

Published 11/02/2025, 11:02
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Tui AG (ETR:TUI1n) shares fell by over 8% on Tuesday following a mixed set of quarterly results, with analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC) pointing to weaker-than-expected M&A performance and cautious trading outlook for the coming months. 

Despite a strong start to the year, with Q1 EBIT reaching €51 million, marking a €45 million improvement compared to the same period last year, concerns over investment-related challenges weighed on market sentiment.

The solid EBIT growth was driven by a strong performance in the hotel segment, which saw improved operational metrics and a notable €60 million improvement. 

The cruise division also contributed positively, with a €14 million increase thanks to higher passenger cruise days and better rates. 

However, the results were partially offset by a €29 million decline from the Markets & Airlines division, primarily due to higher investment costs ahead of the summer season, as well as pressure from rising energy and fuel costs, alongside additional financing expenses. 

These pressures are seen as somewhat inevitable, given the company’s strategy to invest in expansion and prepare for a busy summer season. The impact of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) costs and delayed deliveries also contributed to the weakness in this division.

Bookings for the winter 2024/2025 season showed a normalization in growth, with bookings up by 2% year-on-year, down from the 4% increase seen at the time of the last update. 

For summer 2025, bookings were also growing at a slower pace, up by 2% compared to 7% previously. ASPs (average selling prices) continued to show strength, increasing by 4% for both winter and summer seasons. 

Despite these positive pricing trends, analysts were cautious, especially with the shift in Easter timing, which is expected to impact Q2 trading. As a result, profits are expected to be more heavily weighted in the second half of the year.

The company maintained its full-year guidance, projecting revenue growth of 5-10% and EBIT growth of 7-10%. The mid-point of the EBIT forecast stands at €1.4 billion, in line with consensus expectations. 

Analysts at Barclays see Tui as on track to meet its targets, but noted that the absence of any material change to guidance, coupled with 68% of the summer programme already sold, makes it unlikely that consensus estimates will shift significantly.

Tui expects growth across its divisions. Hotels should see slight growth from higher occupancy and rates. 

Cruises anticipate modest growth, driven by the MS7’s full operation and the MS Relax program, though environmental and route costs remain a challenge. Musement should grow strongly due to continued expansion. 

Markets & Airlines likely faces moderate growth from dynamic packaging and higher average selling prices, despite inflation and rising sustainable aviation fuel and emissions trading system costs.

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