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Investing.com -- Nvidia heads into earnings with expectations so elevated that even solid results may struggle to move the stock, according to a new note from Mizuho.
The firm’s TMT Sector Specialist, Jordan Klein, told investors in a note that the setup “feels like a poor NVDA near-term set-up,” with shares now so “over-analyzed” that “it feels hard for the company to beat and guide up enough to really create a rush of buying right after the fact.”
Mizuho said investors are focused less on Nvidia’s quarterly numbers and more on whether CEO Jensen Huang can shift a narrative dominated by concerns that “AI capex spend is getting to excessive levels that is unsustainable and not fundable via existing credit markets.”
The note cited rising anxiety that the funding side of massive data-center buildouts is now front and center.
Revenue whispers sit near $57 billion for the October quarter and $64 billion for Q4, levels that imply multi-billion-dollar beats.
But Klein warned the stock “doesn’t move higher unless the rev guide is over $65B,” adding that near-term trading reactions matter far less than Nvidia’s momentum over the next “2-3 qtrs if not longer.”
What could actually help the stock? Klein believes Huang needs to give Wall Street something with longer duration than a 90-day guide.
“What I would like to hear … would be more details and specifics on their order pipeline or backlog,” he wrote.
The firm noted that competitors such as AMD and Broadcom have boosted sentiment by offering multi-year revenue frameworks and forward-looking design-win disclosures.
Mizuho argued Nvidia should “outline more on order book or backlog in DC segment,” especially after Huang revealed at GTC that cumulative GPU orders through 2026 had reached $500 billion.