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Investing.com -- A growing number of app-based businesses are pushing users toward direct payments, a shift Morgan Stanley sees as a meaningful tailwind for margins and earnings across the app economy.
The Wall Street giant says companies from mobile gaming to online dating are “increasingly calling out success circumventing app store fees,” and the trend is starting to inflect.
Direct payments allow users to buy digital goods or subscriptions outside the iOS and Android app stores, avoiding the roughly 30% fee charged by the platforms.
Companies instead pay 2–3% for payment processing, creating what Morgan Stanley analysts call “a straightforward upside driver to future earnings” for in-app-purchase-driven businesses.
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Over the past year, more companies have reported higher adoption of direct payment channels and are highlighting additional opportunities as recent court rulings and the EU’s Digital Markets Act open the door for alternative checkout flows.
Mobile gaming publishers are among the biggest beneficiaries. Roblox has introduced cheaper virtual currency for web-based payments, Playtika reported a 600-basis-point sequential increase in direct revenue mix, and Take-Two and EA have pointed to expanding opportunities following changes in Google Play and Apple rules.
Morgan Stanley estimates that for every 5% shift to direct payments, EBITDA could rise between 0.5% and 1.8% for large publishers, while more aggressive adoption can drive far higher gains.
Online dating apps and language-learning platforms are also leaning in. Match Group said direct payment uplift is exceeding expectations, raising its estimated full-year 2026 (FY26) benefit to $90–105 million “reflecting more than 30% direct payment adoption on average across the portfolio.”
Bumble and Duolingo have shown similar progress, with the latter saying it “minimally loses bookings” when steering users to external purchase flows while seeing a notable boost to profitability.
Elsewhere, Korean publisher NCSOFT will introduce direct payments for major Lineage mobile titles, a step Morgan Stanley says could meaningfully lift operating profit given the revenue scale of those games.
In Japan, Konami’s September-quarter beat was supported by titles like eFootball that have emphasized direct payments for two years, with the impact becoming more visible this year.
Australian lifestyle app Life360 has also begun directing hardware-linked purchases to the web. The bank also sees second-order benefits for performance-ad firms such as AppLovin and Unity.
Still, some friction remains. Lower trust in off-app checkout, reduced conversion for mass-market apps, and the risk that platforms introduce new fees could slow momentum. Companies might also reinvest margin gains into marketing, raising acquisition costs across the sector.
But overall, with regulatory pressure rising and early tests showing stronger-than-expected adoption, Morgan Stanley sees direct payments as an increasingly important lever for margin expansion across the app economy.
Analysts highlight that this shift “represents a clear margin upside driver,” and the list of companies experimenting with, testing, or scaling these channels continues to grow.