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Investing.com -- Yardeni Research is reiterating some of its most ambitious long-term market calls, maintaining projections for gold to hit $10,000 an ounce and the S&P 500 to reach 10,000 by the end of 2029.
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While Yardeni avoids making a valuation call on gold, it recounts the firm’s turn bullish when the metal first broke above $2,000 an ounce last year. Persistent central-bank buying after the freezing of Russia’s reserves in 2022 was a key factor.
As gold surged above $3,000 this year, Yardeni identified a rising price channel pointing to “a reasonable price target” of $4,000 by year-end. With prices now consolidating above that level, it expects the next leg higher to begin by mid-2026, aiming for $5,000 at year-end.
The longer-term trajectory remains central to Yardeni’s thesis. “We are still targeting a gold price of $10,000 by the end of 2029, when we expect the S&P 500 to trade at a record 10,000,” the note says.
“Gold tends to be inversely correlated with the S&P 500 on a cyclical basis. But their trends on a long-term basis have been nearly identical,” it adds.
The views come alongside the investment research firm’s fresh commentary on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and the shifting landscape for alternative assets.
Yardeni says it still has no opinion on Bitcoin “because we don’t have any way to value it.”
“It has been widely called "digital gold." We’ve previously described bitcoin as "digital tulips”,” Yardeni wrote.
Even so, the firm highlights the cryptocurrency’s global, round-the-clock trading and the growing role of regulated investment vehicles.
Bitcoin jumped on Wednesday after reports that Vanguard will allow crypto-focused ETFs and mutual funds to trade on its platform, a reversal from the stance of its previous CEO, who had said that the asset manager would never offer Bitcoin ETFs or similar products.
Yardeni also points to the impact of the GENIUS Act, signed by President Donald Trump in July, which set new rules for issuing stablecoins backed by liquid U.S. assets. It links the legislation to Bitcoin’s earlier price weakness, arguing that stablecoins “reduce demand for Bitcoin transactions.”
The note highlights Cathie Wood’s revised $1.2 million forecast for 2030, lowered from $1.5 million as stablecoins are “usurping” some of the utility she initially expected Bitcoin to capture in emerging markets.