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Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) for ZipRecruiter, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZIP) to 'B' from 'B+' on April 10, 2025. The rating outlook is negative. The company's senior unsecured notes were also downgraded to 'B' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4' from 'BB-'/'RR3'.
Fitch's downgrade is due to the expectation of continued pressure on ZIP's revenue and EBITDA due to weak hiring in a more competitive environment and a deteriorating macroeconomic landscape, leading to high leverage. The company experienced sharp revenue and EBITDA declines in 2023 and 2024, suggesting some market share erosion.
The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty surrounding the timing and pace of a demand recovery and the possibility that EBITDA generation could remain pressured for an extended period.
ZIP's growth profile, which was previously a credit positive, is hampered by a steep reduction in demand for recruiting services. Fitch expects ZIP's revenue to contract to around $400 million in 2025 from a peak of $900 million in 2022, with EBITDA declining close to 70% over that timeframe.
Fitch believes ZIP has underperformed the industry and ceded some share in 2023-2024, with revenue declines of 3%-18% per year compared with ZIP's mid-20% declines. ZIP's exposure to small- and medium-sized businesses increases volatility, as their staffing needs vary widely with the economic cycle.
Fitch forecasts EBITDA leverage to rise to the mid-teens in 2025 and 2026 from 7.1x in 2024. The leverage metrics could improve if hiring increases, bringing paid employers back to ZIP's platforms. However, the timing and extent of recovery are uncertain, with 2025 and 2026 likely to be challenging due to a deteriorating macroeconomic landscape and intense competition.
Despite depressed hiring conditions, Fitch expects ZIP to generate neutral free cash flow (FCF) over the next two years. This should help to maintain low net debt considering the company's cash and marketable securities balance of $506 million as of the end of 2024.
ZIP competes in a large and fragmented online job search industry. Many of its primary peers including LinkedIn, Indeed, Monster, CareerBuilder and others are private or divisions of larger companies and are not rated by Fitch.
ZIP's rating is constrained to the 'B' category due to its early business stage in a fragmented and competitive industry, its relatively small EBITDA scale, and the recruiting industry's inherent cyclicality.
Fitch's recovery analysis assumes ZIP would emerge from a default scenario under the going concern approach versus liquidation. This results in a senior unsecured notes recovery of 'RR4' and a 'B' issue-level rating, in-line with ZIP's IDR.
The rating could be downgraded further due to expectations of sustained weakness in revenue and EBITDA, significant decrease in cash and/or liquidity position, mid-cycle EBITDA leverage sustained above 5.5x, or expectations of sustained neutral or negative FCF. On the other hand, the rating could be upgraded if mid-cycle EBITDA leverage is sustained below 4.5x, or expectations of reduced earnings volatility due to increased scale and/or strong brand recognition, leading to a more stable revenue and leverage profile throughout economic cycles.
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