Earnings call transcript: ArcelorMittal Q3 2025 beats expectations, stock rises

ArcelorMittal, the world’s leading steel and mining company, reported its Q3 2025 earnings, surpassing analyst expectations with an EPS of $0.62 compared to the forecasted $0.57, marking an 8.77% surprise. Revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $15.66 billion against the anticipated $15.46 billion. Following the announcement, ArcelorMittal’s stock rose 3.42% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor optimism. This continues a strong year for the company, which has delivered a remarkable 63% return year-to-date according to InvestingPro data.

Key Takeaways

• ArcelorMittal’s Q3 EPS and revenue surpassed forecasts.
• Stock price increased by 3.42% in pre-market trading.
• Strategic growth projects received nearly $1 billion in investment.
• Positive outlook for 2026 with potential demand recovery.
• Challenges in Mexico and import pressures in Brazil and India.

Company Performance

ArcelorMittal’s performance in Q3 2025 was marked by strategic investments and a focus on high-margin products, contributing to its earnings beat. The company invested close to $1 billion in growth projects and maintained strong operational performance across its diversified asset base, despite challenges in some regions. The company’s strategic initiatives, such as the expansion in Liberia and the Calvert EAF ramp-up, are progressing well, indicating a positive trajectory for future growth.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $15.66 billion, up from the forecast of $15.46 billion.
• Earnings per share: $0.62, exceeding the forecast of $0.57.
• EBITDA per ton: $111, 25% above the historical average margin.
• Nine months free cash flow: Approximately $0.5 billion positive.

Earnings vs. Forecast

ArcelorMittal reported an EPS of $0.62 for Q3 2025, surpassing the consensus forecast of $0.57 by 8.77%. The revenue of $15.66 billion also exceeded expectations, with a 1.29% surprise. This performance continues the company’s trend of beating market expectations, driven by strategic investments and operational efficiencies.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, ArcelorMittal’s stock rose 3.42% in pre-market trading, reaching $38.70. This increase reflects investor confidence in the company’s strong financial performance and strategic direction. The stock’s movement aligns with its upward trend, moving closer to its 52-week high of $41.28.

Outlook & Guidance

ArcelorMittal maintains a positive outlook for 2026, with expectations of demand recovery and strategic projects contributing $800 million. The company anticipates a working capital release in Q4 2025 and projects a capital expenditure range of $4.5-$5 billion. The Calvert EAF is expected to significantly contribute to EBITDA growth, supporting the company’s long-term strategic goals.

Executive Commentary

• "Our results continue to demonstrate structural improvements." - Genuino Christino, Group CFO
• "We are actively enabling the energy transition." - Genuino Christino, Group CFO
• "The outlook for our business has clearly improved over the past three months." - Genuino Christino, Group CFO

Risks and Challenges

• Import pressures in Brazil and India could impact market dynamics.
• Challenges in Mexico operations may persist until normalization in 2026.
• European steel sector capacity utilization remains low, affecting regional performance.
• Potential impacts of CBAM and CO2 emissions regulations.
• Macroeconomic uncertainties could influence global steel demand.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about potential European trade protection measures and the dynamics of working capital. Questions also addressed the challenges in Mexico and Ukraine operations, as well as the potential impacts of CBAM and CO2 emissions regulations on the company’s future performance.

Full transcript - ArcelorMittal SA ADR (MT) Q3 2025:

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Hi, good afternoon everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal’s performance and progress during the third quarter of 2025. Leading today’s call will be our Group CFO, Mr. Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items. As usual, we will not be going through the results presentation, which was published this morning on our website. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide number 20 of that presentation. As usual, Genuino will make some opening remarks before we move directly to the Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, then do please press star 11 on your keypad to join the queue. Over to you, Genuino.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Daniel, and welcome everyone, and thanks for joining today’s call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief. Beginning with safety, a core value for our company. The company is completing the first year of its three-year transformation program, supporting ArcelorMittal’s journey to be a zero-fatality and serious injury company. The first year has focused on building the foundations for improvement across the business, and I’m encouraged by the progress we are making. We are already observing an improvement in the frequency of serious injuries and fatalities compared to last year. There is more to be done, and there is clear determination across the entire company to implement the bespoke safety roadmaps that have been developed to drive lasting change. Now, I want to focus this quarter on three key points. First and foremost, our results continue to demonstrate structural improvements. Third quarter EBITDA per ton was $111.

This is 25% above our historical average margin. To be achieving such improved margins at what we believe to be the bottom of the cycle demonstrates the positive impact that our asset optimization and growth strategy is having. Our strategic projects, together with the impacts of recently completed M&A, will support structurally higher margins and returns on capital employed through the cycle. We remain on track to capture $0.7 billion in structural EBITDA improvement this year, and the expected medium-term impact of $2.1 billion remains unchanged. My second point is on free cash flow. Our underlying business continues to generate healthy cash flows. Excluding working capital, nine months free cash flow was approximately $0.5 billion positive. Remember, this is after having invested close to $1 billion in our strategic growth projects. As we head into year-end, I expect that working capital investment will unwind as it normally does.

This supports a positive outlook for free cash flow and lower net debt. My final point is on the positive outlook for our business. Relative to where we were three months ago, the outlook for our business has clearly improved. We welcome the new trade tool proposed by the European Commission. They will support a more sustainable European steel sector, returning the industry to healthier capacity utilization levels. The proposal must now be transposed into legislation as fast as possible. Together with an effective CBAM, this can provide a solid foundation for our European business to earn its cost of capital, as we have been achieving in other regions. With our advanced product offering and strong market franchises, we are well equipped to seize new structural opportunities and translate them into profitable growth. As a company, ArcelorMittal is actively enabling the energy transition.

We are supplying the steel required for new energy and mobility systems, and the steel required for infrastructure development. We are investing in high-quality, high-margin electrical steels and building a competitive renewable energy portfolio. Putting this all together, ArcelorMittal is in a strong position both operationally and financially. We have a unique, diversified asset base across geographies and markets. We are delivering structurally higher margins supported by an optimized asset portfolio and execution of our strategic growth projects. We have momentum, and our growth will continue. We will continue to implement our clearly defined capital return policies. It is working well, allowing us over the past five years to grow our dividend at a compound rate of 16%. As well as repurchase 38% of our equity.

Each ArcelorMittal share now represents a greater proportion of our capacity, a bigger share of our leading franchise businesses, a larger stake in our growth projects, and a greater ownership of our unique business in India. With that, Daniel. Let’s move to Q&As.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thank you, Genuino. We have a good queue of questions in front of us, but just to remind anybody who wants to join that queue, please do press star 11 on your keypad. We will take the first question, please, from Alan at Morgan Stanley. Hi, Alan. Please go ahead.

Hi, Daniel. Hi, everyone. Hi, Genuino. I have two questions. I’ll ask them one at a time. The first one is looking forward to 2026, and before we take into account any impact from CBAM or the new safeguards, what are the unusual or exceptional costs that we need to consider while building our EBITDA bridge into next year? I’m thinking here more the incurred U.S. tariff costs here today, the stoppages in Mexico, et cetera. That’s my first question.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Okay. Sure, Alan. Alan, thinking about 2026 in terms of exceptionals. Right now, I cannot really point to you when it comes to tariffs that we are seeing change, right? We will see, of course, in 2026, as we know, we have the USMCA. I am sure the negotiations between Canada, U.S., Mexico will continue. Of course, we have to wait and see what comes out of the negotiations, right? Clearly, we have the losses in Mexico, and we do expect that they will not reoccur in 2026. That is really, in terms of exceptionals, what I see. Of course, when you think about the bridge for 2026, there are many positives that we could potentially talk about, right? One is the contribution from our projects. We have another $800 million coming in 2026. We just saw also the.

First forecast of the World Steel Association in terms of demand for next year. I think we will start to see some of the benefits of the lower interest rates impacting the economies. We are seeing PMIs in Europe recovering. As we know, demand has been just moving sideways in most of our core regions. I think there is hope that we might see a better picture next year also in terms of demand. I do not know, Daniel, if I am missing something, if you want to complement.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Genuino. All I was going to do was perhaps just add the numbers for Mexico. If you recall back to the Q2 conference call, Q2 results, we talked about a $40 million impact from costs and operational costs in Q2. In our release today, you will see a number for Mexico of $90 million. In Q4, things should improve, but there will still be a cost in Q4 of maybe $60-$65 million. As Genuino said, that should not recur in 2026. When you think about the bridge from 2025 to 2026, there is close to about $200 million there from non-recurrence of Mexico.

Thanks, Daniel. Genuino, that’s very clear. The second question is, in Europe, you currently ship around 30 million tons of finished steel. If the safeguards work next year as intended or designed and imports dramatically reduce, how much can you flex your production in the near and medium terms after taking into account the restart costs, the purchase of CO2 allowances, et cetera? In other words, what is your achievable blue sky shipments in Europe if we go into that scenario where imports decline dramatically? Thank you.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: The way we see it, I mean, we do expect to be able to supply the market. I mean, as we all know, the expectation, looking at the numbers, there is an expectation that imports will come down by about 40% in flat, as we saw, right? It’s not a secret that our market share is about 30%. We do not see any problems to make sure that we can capture that part of our market share. You know, I mean, you have that also in our backbook. Our capacity in Europe is way in excess of $31 million that we are currently producing. We feel very comfortable here to be in a position to supply the market when these new measures are in place.

Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thanks, Alan. We will move now to the next question, which we’re going to take from Tom at Barclays. Hi, Tom. Go ahead.

Hi, Genuino, Daniel. Thanks. Two from me as well. The first one, just the usual one on the kind of moving parts, maybe please into Q4 by division and any color around realized pricing, volumes, that kind of stuff. Thank you.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: You want to take it, Daniel?

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Yeah, sure, Genuino. Thanks. When we look at the bridge from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, I think it’s pretty simple. I think there are really three key building blocks for you to be thinking about. The first, of course, is the normal seasonal improvement in European volumes. The second factor or the second building block would be higher iron ore shipments. As Genuino was talking about, we have good momentum in our strategic projects. We’re well on track to achieve the targeted 10 million tons of shipments in Liberia, and that will be a nice increment in the fourth quarter. The third building block would be North America. We would expect normal seasonality in volumes. We do have two holidays in the fourth quarter, so normally, volumes are seasonally weaker in the NAFTA segment.

If you look at pricing, and if you just purely on a sort of a two-month lagged basis. Pricing should be lower in the fourth quarter than the third quarter. That is going to be slightly offset by the improvement in our Mexican operations, which we just talked about in Alan’s question. Those would be the three key building blocks: seasonally higher volumes in Europe, higher shipments in mining from the Liberia expansion, and seasonally lower volumes and lower lagged prices in the North America segment.

Great. Thank you. Maybe just following up on North America, I mean, is there anything else that you guys would call out for the print in Q3, which I guess was very strong despite the sort of additional Mexico outages? I know you’ve added Calvert, but I guess on the consolidation numbers you’ve given before, that was maybe sort of $60 million a quarter of incremental EBITDA contribution. Maybe that offsets the hit from Mexico. US spot pricing has been drifting. There’s obviously extra tariff costs. Is there anything on either the cost side, the mix side, that you’d flag for North America? Thanks.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah, Tom. First of all, we had a record level of shipments at Calvert. Calvert doing extremely well. I would suggest that the contribution was a bit higher than what you referred to. Our Canadian team is also doing a very good job in managing what they can. Costs, there’s a very high focus on making sure that we take costs out. That is also supporting the results in quarter three. You have strong operations in Calvert. You have strong operations in Canada, in both of the facilities, in the long facility as well. We have also a good contribution from some of the other business. Our HBI and DRI plant in Texas are also performing well. I think we have, except for, of course, the problems in Mexico, we have our franchise business in North America operating quite, quite well.

Okay. Okay. Thank you. I’ll turn it back.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thanks. We will move now to the next question, which we’re going to take from Cole at Jefferies. Hi, Cole. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I’d just like to ask on the CapEx profile, medium term, and the envelope that you’re thinking about, because you do have a number of strategic projects in the pipeline. How should we think about broad buckets for CapEx ’25, ’26, ’27? Any broad-based guidance you can provide? Following up on working capital, it’s a strong improvement into the fourth quarter coming back, but I imagine as you look into 2026, you hopefully will benefit from a stronger pricing environment. I’m just wondering how you’re thinking about working capital into 2026. Are you hoping for kind of working capital outflows and stronger pricing and demand environment for 2026? Thank you.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: In terms of CapEx, what we have been seeing is, and then, of course, we are now, we’re going to be actually just, we’re going to be starting now our budget discussions for 2026 and beyond. What we have been seeing is that the range that we have been using over the last couple of years between $4.5 billion and $5 billion, including strategic, sustaining, maintenance, that is a good reference for now. I would encourage you to keep that as your reference. I’m sure in Q4 we will be updating with more details, but that is a good reference. In terms of working capital, I hope you’re right. I mean, I hope that in 2026, we have to deploy working capital because then it means that the business is strong. It’s performing well, prices are moving in the right direction, volumes as well.

What we try to encourage is you should think about working capital moving in line with our EBITDA, right? So if you believe that if you have for 2026 high EBITDA numbers, then it would be fair to expect that there will be potential investments in working capital, which is something that we would see as positive.

Maybe just as a follow-up. Have you seen any changes in order books or how are you managing your order book for the start of 2026? Are you keeping some availability for higher prices or how are you seeing your order book develop into 2026? Thank you.

Yeah. As we talked about, the demand has been moving sideways, right? Our order book remains relatively stable, right? We have segments doing better than others. The order books are relatively stable across the group. We are not doing anything special to try to anticipate a stronger 2026 other than making sure that we allow the business to keep the working capital that they need so that they can benefit from a stronger 2026 that we hope will materialize. That is really how we are planning. Yeah, that is how we are seeing it so far.

Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thanks, Cole. So we’re going to move to the next question, which we’ll take from Reinhardt at Bank of America. Hi, Reinhardt.

Hi there. Can you hear me?

Yes, we can. Go ahead.

Thanks, Dan. Hi, Genuino. Thanks for taking my question. I just want to ask on capital allocation. If these safeguard replacements in Europe come through in their proposed form, how would you think about Europe from a capital allocation point of view? I do not want to necessarily draw into discussion about sort of decarbonization investment and CBAM, but just from a purely economic perspective. You talk about organic growth. Do you think Europe could be a home for capital in the future if we get this framework?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: I think you touched on it. I mean, this is an important framework, right? What we are talking about is that this framework should allow the industry to be sustainable, to earn its cost of capital. When you achieve that, then you are in a position to consider investments. That is exactly where we are. We are encouraged by these new measures. Of course, still waiting for the implementation. We still need to hear more about CBAM, as we all know. The last piece of the equation is, of course, energy. Energy costs. I think once we have that framework very clear, we are going to be in a position to move forward. As we discussed before, this will happen gradually, right? You should not expect a launch in a number of simultaneous projects. It will happen gradually.

This is going to be a multi-year journey.

Understood. That’s very helpful. Thank you. Could you just remind me, I mean, you mentioned the business in Europe could potentially return to its cost of capital. Could you just remind us what exactly is the installed capital base of the European business?

I don’t think this is something that we are very specifically disclosing, Daniel.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: No, you’re right, Genuino. It’s not something that’s broken out in our financials.

Okay. No, that’s fine. Maybe just one last quick one, Genuino. You mentioned that you’ve got the capacity to be able to deliver effectively your share of the 10 million tons. Can I just see what kind of costs you might need to incur in order to bring that capacity to market? I mean, I appreciate it’s there, but could you just maybe talk through some of the costs that you’d need to incur to actually get that utilization up?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. It is a good point. I would break it down into two components or two parts, right? First is, you have the fixed cost part. In a number of facilities, we are going to be able to leverage the fixed cost that we have, right? You are just going to be running at a higher capacity, so you benefit on the fixed cost side. In such cases, normally what you are going to see also is an increase in your variable costs, including then CO2 costs, right? If you want to improve your productivity, you might need to charge higher quality materials, pellets, more pellets. There will be, you should expect that to have an impact as well. I would just encourage you to think about the two components.

Perfect. Thank you very much, Genuino.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Reinhardt. We’ll move now to a question from Timna at Wells Fargo. Hi, Timna.

Timna, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Yes. Hey, everyone. Wanted to ask two things. One, just kind of probing a little bit more your efforts to mitigate the tariff costs and specifically how you’re approaching the annual contract negotiations with automakers at Difasco. Then separate question, just if I missed it, I apologize. I’m just wondering if you commented on why there were not any buybacks in the quarter. Thanks.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Hi, Timna. Yeah. We continue to renew our contracts, our OEM contracts. We just basically are almost done now for part of the first half of next year, so signing even more than a one-year contract. I think fundamentally, our customers, they like the product, they like what they get from Difasco. I think there is very good cooperation between us and our customers there. We do not expect really here significant change in terms of looking at our North America business in terms of volumes going to automotive. Of course, other than if we have lower production next year, which we are not talking about, but just because of renegotiations, we are not really expecting significant change in the overall volumes going to automotive. In terms of buybacks, there is not really much more I have to say. As you know.

We have a very clear policy, and we believe that is a differential. I mean, not all of our competitors will have a very clear policy. I think we were, in a way, lucky. We did a lot of buybacks at the very beginning of the year when the share price was still low. All I would say is that you should expect that the company will honor that policy, that 50% of the free cash after paying dividends will be distributed to shareholders. I would just also add that the policy is working quite well. I mean, we talked about 38%. We did 9 million shares this year already, and we have a very low average price. We are really creating a lot of value to our shareholders. Anyway, if you want to complement.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thank you, Genuino. I think that was very complete.

Timna, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Okay. Great. Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Timna. We will move to the next question, which we will take from Tristan at BMP. Hi, Tristan. Please go ahead.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Yes, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on working capital. Just wanted to see how confident you are on the almost $2 billion released that you expect in Q4 and what should be driving that. Is there any impact from outages at Fos or Mexico? And isn’t there a risk of reducing inventories a bit too much and missing the recovery in Q1? If you can discuss that as well, is that not your base case that notably in Europe, you’ll see a bit of a pickup in Q1? Also, if you can comment on the CBAM uncertainty, and does that have any impact on your order book in Europe and pushing more buyers towards local producer? That’s my first question.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. So the working capital release in Q4 to some extent, it’s seasonal, right? I mean, as we know, we have just less working days in December. That will have an impact on how much receivables we carry at the end of the year, right? If you look also, we had a reduction in payables. As we prepare actually for potentially a stronger 2026, we start also increasing, that should also start to normalize. You’re right. There are a couple of one-offs, such as the fact that we are not producing as standard in Mexico, some accumulation of raw materials that should also start to normalize, right? We have the reline of our Dunkerque blast furnace, which is also then in the process for now of we are normalizing the inventory of slabs.

Yeah, we are very confident that you’re going to see a significant release of working capital, as was also the case last year. If you go back to 2024, you’re going to see something very, very similar. You’re right. We have a concern here not to squeeze the working capital that is available to the business. That’s why what you’re going to really see is more on the receivable side than the payable side, not so much in terms of inventories.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Okay. No, that’s clear. Just following up then on Europe and with the steel action plan, do you believe that there is a possibility of seeing the new quarters implemented before July next year? To go back to my earlier question, what kind of market environment do you see in Q1? If the quarters are not implemented in January, April, but in July, do you see a risk of input surging? Yeah. If you could comment a little bit on your order books in Europe, if you’re starting to see a bit more activity there, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. In terms of timing of implementation, when we discuss internally, I think there is still hope that we might actually see it earlier. I think that’s quite important. That’s really the efforts in terms of making sure that the parliament and the council understand the urgency of having these measures implemented as soon as possible. Even though it’s challenging, I think there is still hope that we may see this implemented earlier. Of course, we have to wait and see. One thing is for sure, though. I mean, of course, we don’t even yet know for sure all the details of CBAM. CBAM for sure is effective already from 1st of January, right? We’ll see what are the final terms. That alone should already at least make the imports less competitive.

In terms of order book, I think we discussed, I mean, order books. They are not higher than the normal. I think it’s just, as we have seen, demand for now at least kind of moving sideways. The order book is relatively stable.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: All right. Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thanks, Tristan. So we’ll move now to take a question from Max at Oddo. Hi, Max.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Yeah. Good morning. Good afternoon. Sorry, Daniel and Genuino. My first question is on Mexico. This is an asset where you have had a number of issues over the recent past. There was this illegal blockade last year. There was a rotation on the EAF earlier this year, and now there’s this problem on the DRI plant. How confident are you basically that the asset can return to a normalized productivity and performance and that on a recurring basis from next year?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. That’s a fair question. We are not pleased. Some of the problems that we are facing this year are still a result of the legal blockade that happened last year. What we are doing right now is really reviewing all of our SOPs. We have our engineers, we have our CTO group going through all the procedures, making sure that we avoid repetition of some of these issues. I’m very confident that with the support of Group CTO and the local team also very engaged, we’re not going to have a repetition of some of these operational issues in Mexico.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Okay. Then the second question is on the import pressure in Brazil and India, which seems to be quite high at the moment. It is reflected in very low prices. It seems that the authorities there are not really willing to tackle the situation at this stage. How are you confident that this will be the case? Would you be ready to scale back your investments in Brazil if that is not the case, given that I think one of your competitors has done such a move? Brazil is still the biggest region where you invest at the moment, if we leave aside Liberia.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. Look, I mean. Mid to long term, we continue to be bullish on Brazil. We will continue to invest. You’re right that we have seen imports rising in Brazil. There is also a very close dialogue with the government showing what other governments are doing around the globe, right? What is encouraging is we have a number of anti-dumping measures that should start to have an impact, we believe, by the end of this year or beginning of next year. We have anti-dumping against China on Cobra, Galva, which, of course, are products that we are selling domestically. That should have a positive impact. I think the system, the way it is designed today, also allows for, if we see surges in other products, that we can also then look to add them to the quota systems that we have in place today.

We have seen a reduction of imports already in quarter three compared to quarter two. We will see. I think the fact that we have the anti-dumping, it is important. It is showing that the government is also concerned. Local mills, as we know, announced price increases as well at the beginning of the quarter. We will see how it plays out. In India, I would say that demand continues to be extremely good, strong, rising. Strong economic performance. You are right that prices are low. I would say that is also the impact of the new capacity that normally takes a while to be absorbed. We are going through that process right now. I think we can also be optimistic for the near term.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Okay. Just perhaps the last one is on Ukraine. It seems that the challenges there have gotten bigger in recent months in terms of railways, in terms of electricity costs. Is there a point where you will consider shutting down production entirely, or are you still committed to maintaining production as it is for the time being?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. The situation in Ukraine, you’re right. We are running today at basically at capacity that is available to us. We are running two furnaces. The plant is a bit positive. We are not yet free cash flow neutral, as we discussed before, right? The key issue for us remains the high energy costs. Again, here, we are trying to engage in discussions with the government to show the importance to bring that to levels that will allow the industry to be sustainable, even in these very challenging conditions of the war. We will see. For now, the plan is to continue to produce. We have the mining operations that are also close to capacity. We are able to sell iron ore to our own mills either in Europe or to third parties outside. Yeah, I think for now.

We are managing through a very challenging situation.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Okay. Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Max. So we’ll move now to take the next question, which is going to be from Bastian at Deutsche Bank. Hi, Bastian.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Yeah. Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one is on Europe, and can I please come back on the situation here in the context of the policy plans? When you look at the European capacity landscape, do you believe that the current capacity, which is in operation, would be enough to pick up the additional market share, which the domestic industry would likely absorb from the imports? Would this 10 million tons, which you refer to in the charts, require idle capacity to restart? Maybe just as a quick add-on to that, are you generally more positive on the volume or the price leverage for your business from the policy, which has been laid out? Those are my first questions.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. I think in terms of, as we know, I mean, that was also made very clear by EuroFair, by the Commission. As we know, the capacity utilization in Europe today is low. That is the whole idea behind some of these trade actions to allow the industry to regain a level that is more sustainable, right? I think it will depend on where you are in Europe, right? There can be cases where you’re going to need to bring some idle capacity. Then, of course, costs are going to be also higher because you’re not going to have the benefit of the fixed cost, right? It’s difficult to be very precise on that. For us, I think it’s.

I guess what is important here is really to make sure that the industry can run at a decent level of capacity utilization, right? I think that’s the whole idea. Because then you can earn your cost of capital, you can optimize your fixed cost base, your cost base, etc., etc. So that’s how we are seeing it.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Okay. Just in terms of the leverage for your own business, when you look at the give and takes, are you more positive on the price effect, or are you more positive on the volume impact on your earnings contribution?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: I do not want to be drawn on that. I think for us, as I said, what is important is that we can run our facilities at a higher capacity utilization, right? That should be then if you have less imports, which, as we know today, the cost or the price of imports is so low, right? Do you want to add anything to this question?

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. Thanks, Genuino. I think, like you’re saying, it’s very difficult to isolate the sort of contribution of the fixed cost absorption, the sort of operating leverage, or the impact of just higher industry utilization on spreads. I think, I’m sure you’ve analyzed this in the past, that, Bastian, there’s a good correlation between spreads and utilization. There should be two factors, and those two factors should contribute to what Genuino is talking about. Our business in Europe, the industry in Europe, being in a position to cover its cost of capital. That’s ultimately the objective here.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Okay. Sounds good. My next question is on North America. I guess one of your Canadian peers here is heavily loss-making. Could you maybe give us a bit of color on how Dofasco is actually performing on a single entity basis? Are you still making money there?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yes, absolutely. Dofasco is one of the best facilities in the world. It is still very much profitable.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Okay. Great. Very last question, just on your expansion strategy in Hazira, is that on track? Just, I guess, given what you discussed earlier in terms of the capacity, which has been brought on already this year, do you think the market is ready for the ramp-up next year as you’re planning it?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. I think, first of all, our projects are ongoing and going well. We are going to be, as we discussed, commissioning some of the finishing lines later this year, beginning of next year. During 2026, we are going to be completing the upstream, including coke batteries. A lot of the new capacity has just come now. I think we are going to be in a good position to ramp up our own capacity, allowing some time so the market can absorb that. I think in terms of timing, it looks good.

Tristan/Max/Bastian, Analyst, BMP/Oddo/Deutsche Bank: Sounds good. Okay. Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thanks, Bastian. We still have a few more questions to take, Genuino. The first of those we’ll take from Dominic at JPMorgan. Hi, Dominic.

Dominic, Analyst, JPMorgan: Hi, guys. Just a couple of quick questions on, again, sort of real-time indicators of demand. You obviously have a seasonal slowdown in the North American market. Are you seeing any visible signs of kind of new pockets of weakness in the U.S., particularly given the government shutdown? My second question relates to Europe and the auto segment. Do you have any insight you can share with regards to how you’re approaching contracts moving into January?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. Starting with the U.S., you’re right. I think overall, as we all know, the numbers are right. The demand is moving sideways. I would say that when I look at our business, Calvert is running absolutely full. We had record levels of production, shipments, right? The two segments where we are very much focused are energy and automotive, doing relatively well. When it comes to Canada and Mexico, I think that’s where we also see some potential because, of course, the demand domestically, let’s forget tariffs for a moment, also significantly impacted, right, with all the uncertainties created by the change in the relationship between the various governments within North America. I think we see potential for stabilization there that should also support the shipments domestically in Canada and Mexico.

Coming to the auto contracts, I mean, it’s going to be as always is. I think we have a lot to offer to the automakers. In some cases, in North America, as we know, the negotiations will happen gradually during the year. In Europe, there is a heavy weight at the beginning of the year. This process is ongoing, and I expect that it will be, as always is, we have an agreement that should be a win-win for both companies.

Dominic, Analyst, JPMorgan: Is there any sense that the sort of the price tension that we’ve seen over the last two years could alleviate this time around?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. As you know, I mean, we don’t comment specifically on prices, as you can imagine. These negotiations, first of all, they are specific. We don’t comment on prices. I would just, of course, the spot price is always a reference, right? Starting point, you see prices are moving higher in Europe already. They are also coming up again in North America. We talked about prices in Brazil also. Higher prices have been announced. I think the environment in that sense is positive.

Dominic, Analyst, JPMorgan: Thank you. Thanks.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Dominic. We will move now to Andy at UBS.

Andy, Analyst, UBS: Hello. Can you hear me okay?

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Yeah.

Andy, Analyst, UBS: Excellent. Just to go back to the European question about the CO2, can you just remind us what your emissions are likely to finish at in 2025 if we assume the normal seasonal uptick in Q4 and how that compares to your free allocation levels this year? Going into 2026 with the reduction of free allocations, and I guess at some of your sites, you’ve produced less in recent years, so you may lose some free allocation because of lower production. Can you give us an idea by how much you expect your free allocation to change next year? Maybe as a follow-on to that, are there any assets which are kind of emitting less than their free allocations where the uplift in production would have minimal costs on the CO2 side? Just to give us an idea for how much you could ramp production easily.

Thank you.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Andy, I mean, there are many, many moving parts, right, when it comes to the ETS system. It is complex. I would just say that. As we know, in Europe, most players, if not all players, they are short, right? So they do not meet the benchmarks. I would say a good rule of thumb is you are paying CO2 costs for about 20% of your production, right? That is the ballpark. It should give you an idea. I think when we look at our, and it is always based on an average, you have your how. It is highly technical. We do not really expect going forward in 2026 that we are going to be losing free emissions meaningfully because of levels of operation, right? As we know, there are reductions, gradual reductions that will happen with the implementation of CBAM.

You need to take that into account. There are also revisions to the benchmarks, right? That is the situation.

Andy, Analyst, UBS: Yeah. You don’t have a number of credits reduction that you expect for next year?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: I mean, we all know what’s going to happen in terms of reductions in. There is a 2% reduction in the ETS system, the free allowances, right? And then we have to see what happens now with the benchmarks. So it’s too early to. Talk about it.

Andy, Analyst, UBS: Okay.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: I would just add that what is important here also is now with CBAM, right? To the extent that CBAM is effective, then at least you are at par with imports. So they will be paying the same costs, right? I think I would encourage you also to see, to the extent that cost is increasing in Europe, but you have at least the same costs being applied to imports, then at least there is a level playing field in that regard, right? Which is, I guess, what the whole industry in Europe has been advocating.

Andy, Analyst, UBS: Okay. That’s clear. Just a second question on Canada. There was a recent document about medium and heavy vehicles, a proclamation on the auto industry from the White House, which had a paragraph in it talking about potential carve-outs for auto-grade steel from Canada where the tariff would drop from 50% to 25%, conditional on some conditions around investments in the U.S. and things like that. I was wondering how you interpreted that because it seemed slightly unclear to me. If you’ve got an asset in the U.S. that you’re clearly investing in, do you see potential to use that recent proclamation to reduce the tariff on Dofasco into the U.S.?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: My understanding is that the negotiations at this point in time, as we all know, they are suspended, right? We are hoping that they will resume the negotiations. We will see finally what comes out of these discussions. I do not have anything else really to add.

Andy, Analyst, UBS: Okay. Sure. No worries. Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Great. Thanks, Andy. Two questions left. We’re going to take the first of those from Phil at QBank. Hi, Phil.

Phil, Analyst, QBank: Hey, thank you. Regarding North America, how is the Calvert EAF ramp going? Is that part of your incremental 2026 strategic EBITDA growth bridge as you look into next year as that comes up to the levels you expect?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. Phil, we are ramping up. Our expectation now, latest expectation, is to end the year with a run rate between 40% and 50%. It is progressing. We started also the qualification process. You are right. When you look at our bridge, that is on slide 10, and the $800 million, you are going to have contribution from Calvert in two buckets. One is, of course, we are going to be consolidating Calvert for the full year. As you know, we started the consolidation at the end of quarter two. You are going to have an extra contribution from Calvert consolidation, which is in our M&A bucket. You are going to have the contribution from the EAF, especially in this environment, right, when Calvert is also paying for tariffs on these slabs. That is also part of the $600 million that you see from projects.

Calvert, next year, it’s in the two buckets there.

Phil, Analyst, QBank: Thank you. As a follow-up, you mentioned in your remarks and your analyst deck that Canada is beginning to address some of the unfairly traded steel or some level of reciprocity for the U.S. tariffs. What have they done specifically? Do you think they’re doing enough?

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: As we know, we have a very large level of imports into Canada, right? Of course, they reduce the quotas for non-FTA countries. That’s a good step, but it doesn’t really address the problem. We believe that Canada should be putting in place a much stronger trade protection to make sure that the industry can, again, also regain market share vis-à-vis imports. As we know, a lot of the imports also come from the U.S., right? We are hopeful, again, as we said, that Canada, U.S., Mexico, and maybe as part of the USMCA negotiations, they will also come to an agreement. That would be very good, right, if you have the whole USMCA with similar rules, similar protection. That would be extremely positive, and you would expect if you have a common trade block that the rules would be similar.

Andy, Analyst, UBS: Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Thanks, Phil. We’ll take our final question, and we’ll take that from Boris at Capital Shubra. Hi, Boris.

Hi. Good afternoon. Two questions and one technical precision. The first is on Europe. I think you’re quite close with politics in talks about those trade barriers to be implemented. What is your take on the fact that those proposals of the European Commission will be adopted in the current state they have been proposed, or whether there could be some dilution? That would be my first question. On China, there is a lot of talks about the anti-pollution measures. Do you see any chance that China might be moving towards a cut in production as some headlines were referring earlier this year? Lastly, just to confirm what you said earlier on the market share in Europe, is it 30% or 20-30%? Thank you.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Okay. Boris, I will take your first question, and then I will comment on China. I mean, the dilution is coming. There is a process, right? The proposal is now going through the Parliament. It is going through the Council. I think there is a desire, expressed by a number of governments, by the Commission, to have an accelerated approval process. That is only possible if we do not have significant change. I think that is our request, that we have these measures in place as soon as possible. On the market, I mean, I am just giving you a reference. Okay. Do you want to talk about China?

Daniel Fairclough, Investor Relations, ArcelorMittal: Yeah. Yeah. Thank you. It is obviously a question that we receive on most of our calls around this theme of China excess capacity. When will they address it? When will they take measures to structurally reform the industry, to balance domestic capacity with domestic demand, in an effort to restore the industry to health, to reasonable levels of profitability, reasonable margins, etc., etc.? To your question, there have, of course, been lots of headlines and suggestions that steel could be one of the beneficiaries of the anti-pollution theme in China this year. The reality is that we really have not seen any changes in the impact that China is having in external markets. They continue to have weak prices, very weak margins. Generally, there is a substantial proportion of the industry operating on a loss-making basis.

They continue to export at extremely elevated levels, run rates of 120, 130 million tons annualized. Those negative domestic dynamics have then been translated into other regions through those exports. I guess my answer to your question is, until we really see strong evidence of change, and that would be through improved prices, improved margins, improved profitability, and most importantly, through reduced exports, nothing is really changing. That just puts even more emphasis on the requirement for governments to take appropriate actions to ring-fence those domestic industries from these negative impacts of excess capacity in China. Jamie was just talking about the strong progress that we are making in Europe. We talked earlier about what is happening in Brazil. It is clear that the best way to deal with this issue is by putting appropriate protections in place.

Okay. Thank you.

Great. I think that’s our last question, Jamie. I’ll hand back to you for any closing remarks.

Genuino Christino, Group CFO, ArcelorMittal: Thank you, everyone. Before we close, let me briefly reiterate the key messages from the start of the call. First, our results continue to demonstrate structural improvements. The fact that we are posting such improved results at what we believe to be the bottom of the cycle for this, well, for when conditions normalize. Secondly, our underlying business continues to generate healthy cash flows. Looking behind seasonal working capital movements shows that we continue to generate good underlying free cash flow. This is after having invested close to $1 billion in our strategic growth projects. These projects are delivering structurally high EBITDA, and this will continue in 2026. Finally, the outlook for our business has clearly improved over the past three months. The newly proposed trade deal, combined with an effective CBAM, provides a foundation for our new business to earn its course of capital.

Together with the actions being taken in other regions like Brazil and Canada, this continues to point towards a more regionalized and better protected steel industry in which our semi-metal can thrive. With that, I will close today’s call. If you need anything further, please do reach out to Daniel and his team. I look forward to speaking with you soon. Stay safe and keep those around you safe as well. Thank you very much.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.