Swisscom profit drops 23% as Vodafone Italia costs weigh on results
Bpost NV reported stable operating income for the third quarter of 2025, maintaining €1,030 million year-on-year. However, the company faced a decline in adjusted EBIT, which fell by €16.3 million to €3 million. Despite these challenges, Bpost confirmed its full-year EBIT outlook at around €180 million. The company’s stock reacted negatively, dropping 7.39% to €1.87 in pre-market trading, reflecting investor concerns over the declining EBIT and ongoing transformation efforts.
Key Takeaways
- Bpost’s Q3 operating income remained stable at €1,030 million.
- Adjusted EBIT dropped by €16.3 million to €3 million.
- Stock price fell 7.39% in pre-market trading.
- CapEx guidance revised downward to €140 million from €180 million.
- Domestic mail volumes decreased by 9.4%, while parcels volume grew by 2.8%.
Company Performance
Bpost NV demonstrated resilience with stable operating income in Q3 2025, despite facing a challenging logistics market. The company is transitioning from traditional mail services to becoming an international logistics and parcel operator. This strategic shift is reflected in its growing parcels volume and increased cross-border revenue in Europe. However, the decline in adjusted EBIT and domestic mail volumes highlights ongoing challenges.
Financial Highlights
- Operating Income: €1,030 million (stable year-on-year)
- Adjusted EBIT: €3 million (down €16.3 million)
- Net Cash Outflow: €16 million (improved from previous year)
- CapEx Guidance: Revised to €140 million from €180 million
Outlook & Guidance
Bpost maintains its full-year EBIT outlook at approximately €180 million and expects Q4 EBIT to range between €80 million and €85 million. The company is preparing for the peak season by hiring 4,100 seasonal workers. Despite potential revenue declines in the Radial US segment through 2026, Bpost continues to focus on expanding its Radial FastTrack and optimizing 3PL operations in Europe.
Executive Commentary
Philippe Darcis, CFO of Bpost, emphasized the company’s strategic transition, stating, "We are shifting firmly toward becoming an international logistic and parcel operator." He acknowledged the long-term nature of this transformation: "It’s a long journey. It’s not a one- or two-quarter journey." Darcis also highlighted the company’s aim to reduce dependency on large customers requiring significant investments.
Risks and Challenges
- Declining domestic mail volumes could impact future revenue.
- Ongoing EBIT decline poses a challenge to profitability.
- Potential European levies on Chinese parcels may affect cross-border operations.
- Revenue decline in Radial US could continue through 2026.
- Market volatility and competition in the logistics sector remain significant concerns.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the decline in Radial US revenue, which decreased by 25% organically. Bpost addressed its integration and optimization strategies for TASCI and discussed the potential impact of European parcel levies on its operations. The company reiterated its commitment to transforming its logistics business model to adapt to evolving market conditions.
Full transcript - bpost NV (BPOST) Q3 2025:
Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, hello and welcome to the bpost Group Q3 2025 analyst conference call. On today’s call, we have Mr. Philippe Darcis, CFO. Please note, this call is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your line will be on listen only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call. This can be done by pressing #5 on your telephone keypad to register your question. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial #6 on your telephone keypad. I will now hand over to your host, Mr. Philippe Darcis, CFO, to begin today’s conference. Please go ahead, sir.
Philippe Darcis, CFO, bpost Group: Thank you very much. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to all of you, and thank you for joining us. I’m pleased to present to you our Q3 result as CFO for the bpost Group. Chris, our CEO, could not make it today, and I have with me Antoine Lebecq from Investor Relations. We posted the materials on our website this morning. We will walk you through the presentation, and then we’ll take your questions. As always, two questions each will ensure everyone gets a chance to be addressed in the upcoming hour. I’ll start with the quarterly financial, then move on to our financial outlook, and provide an update on our key transformation initiatives for 2025.
As you can see on the highlights on page three, our group operating income for the third quarter amounted to EUR 1,030,000,000, remaining broadly stable year-on-year and almost at constant scope, as TASCI has already contributed for two months in the same period last year. As usual, the summer quarters show some seasonal softness. Beyond this, we saw a mix of different factors. At Radial US, we continue to see the expected impact from the 2024 contract termination, but even more this time, the materialization effect of those announced earlier this year. As a reminder, these are the same ones that led us to take an impairment at the beginning of the year. Altogether, those elements more than offset the extra months of TASCI contribution in the quarter. At the same time, we continue to see good volume growth in Asian cross-border activities.
While in Belgium, the domestic mail volumes declined, this was partially compensated by a decent volume growth in parcels. Our group adjusted EBIT came at EUR 3,000,000, representing a year-on-year decrease of EUR 16.3 million, mainly driven by Radial US, where, despite sustained margin action, the revenue shortfall due to the anticipated churn and seasonal softness did not allow full absorption of fixed costs in the quarter. More broadly, at bpost Group level, the results we are presenting today are in line with our expectations, and we reconfirm our EBIT outlook at around EUR 180,000,000 for the year 2025. On slide four, you will note that the EUR 14,000,000 decline in net profits mirrors the EBIT evolution, as in the same period last year, the acquisition debt was already on balance sheet, and the financial result remained broadly stable. Let’s move now to the details of our three segments.
I’m on page five with the last-mile segment. We see that the revenue declined by EUR 9 million, amounting to EUR 512 million. Domestic mail recorded around EUR 16 million decline in revenue, of which EUR 10 million stemmed from transactional and advertising mails, and EUR 6 million from press. Excluding press, mail volume contracted by 9.4% in the quarter compared to only 6.7% last year, which had benefited from the election uplift in September 2024. The decline in mail volume had a negative revenue impact of around EUR 20 million, of which was partially compensated by half through a positive price and mix effect of EUR 4.7 million, or roughly EUR 10 million. As a result, domestic mail revenues were down by 4.6% or minus 10% year-over-year. On parcels, revenue increased by EUR 4 million, or 3.2% year-on-year, reflecting a volume growth of 2.8% and a slightly positive price mix effect of 0.5% in this quarter.
On the volume side, the reported 2.8% actually corresponds to an average growth of 4.4% per working day. Over the past months, this momentum has been mainly supported by the outperformance of marketplace, notably boosted by sales events and continued strength in the apparel segment. Let’s move to the P&L of last mile on page six. Including some higher intersegment revenues from inbound cross-border volumes handled in the domestic network, our total operating income was slightly down by 1.4%, or EUR 8 million. At the same time, on the cost side, our OPEX, including D&A, remained broadly stable and mainly reflects two effects. Lower FTEs resulting from lower volume and efficiency gain, notably from the reorganization of our distribution rounds and retail offices, which are progressing in line with plan. On the other end, higher salary cost per FTE, around up to 2% year-over-year, following the March 25 salary indexation.
In contrast with the first half of the year, when EBIT had contracted sharply by almost EUR 64 million year-on-year, mainly due to the end of the press concession in June 2024, we see that despite structural mail decline, parcel growth, and initial projects of. Effects of our reorganization are helping to attenuate EBIT erosion. Moving on to 3PL on page seven, 3PL revenues were broadly stable overall, as two offsetting events came into play. First effect, 3PL Europe, where revenue increased by EUR 62 million, we benefited from one additional month of TASCI revenue in the quarter. Along with continued commercial expansion of Radial and Actiw in Europe. That said, from existing customers, or the famous same-store sale, remained soft and even negative in certain geographies during the quarter. As a side note, since we are one year after the acquisition of TASCI, there will be no further consolidation impact going forward.
As we are now advancing in the integration of TASCI, Radial Europe, and Actiw, we’re really starting to operate as one single business unit, as explained at our capital market day in June. Our P&Ls are being increasingly managed together. This means that from now on, we will only report on 3PL Europe as one single business, and gradually phase out standalone reporting from individual entities. Second effect, in 3PL North America, revenue decreased by EUR 58 million. At constant exchange rate, this corresponds to a decrease of 24%. Mainly driven by revenue churn from contracts announced in 2024, and even more so from those announced early 2025. Partially offset by in-year contribution of new customers, around 60% of which are Radial FastTrack customers, as we presented to you at our capital market day. While we are seeing positive and encouraging signs on that front.
I’ll come back to that in a moment, we are still feeling the impact, as expected, of the churn. We continue to execute our sales development plan, and we are confident that these efforts will pay off, but it needs a bit of patience. Let’s move on to the P&L of 3PL on slide eight. With this, the total operating income slightly increased by 1.1%, while our operating expense and D&A increased by 4.8%. Primarily driven by in-Europe TASCI consolidation impact and one-off reorganization costs, including site closures and relocation of customers, to further accelerate 3PL Europe integration and cost structure optimization. In North America, lower variable OPEX in line with the revenue development at Radial US and sustained variable contribution margin close to record high level.
The EBIT evolution at Radial US is certainly one of the key highlights of this quarter performance, and also the main reason for the gap versus market’s expectation. Despite one additional month of TASCI contribution, the minus EUR 30 million EBIT decline in 3PL from EUR 1.7 million last year indeed clearly reflects the situation at Radial US. After three consequential years of contraction, revenues are now about 45% below their peak level in Q3 2022. In this quarter, the combined effect of churn and seasonal softness limited our ability to fully absorb fixed costs. Despite strong VCM discipline and tight cost control, ironically, we are now at a point where revenue has reached their lowest level ever, yet our VCM margin stands at all-time high. Looking ahead, the solution lies in top-line recovery, and on that front, we are executing our plan and making good progress.
Moving on to cross-border on page nine. Cross-border Europe revenue increased by EUR 11 million, or plus 14% year-over-year. This growth was driven by strong volume increase from Asia across all major destinations, notably Belgium, fueled by large Chinese platforms and US. At cross-border North America, Landmark Global continues to face the broader tariff environment that is weighing on existing business and delaying new opportunities. However, this was offset by strong domestic volume in Canada, resulting in an overall plus 1.4% revenue increase for North America, including a 6% negative FX impact. Overall, our cross-border operating income increased by roughly EUR 12 million, or 8.7%. As shown on page ten, our OPEX and D&A increased at the same time by 9.6%, mainly reflecting higher transportation costs linked to the volume growth I just mentioned. EBIT slightly increased to above EUR 17 million, with a margin of 11.5%, reflecting a slight dilution from commercial product.
Moving on to corporate segment on page 11. Adjusted EBIT improved by EUR 1,000,000 to minus EUR 9,000,000, as cost containment measures across spend categories helped offset higher payroll driven by more entities and March 2025 salary indexation. We move to the cash flow on slide 12. The net cash outflow for the quarter amounts to minus EUR 16,000,000, representing an improvement of EUR 275,000,000 year-on-year, mainly reflecting the acquisition of TASCI last year, which was partially funded in cash for a bit less than EUR 300,000,000. Besides that, the remaining items to flag are the following. Cash flow from operating activities before change in working cap stood at EUR 71,000,000 and decreased by EUR 7,000,000 year-over-year, mainly reflecting higher corporate tax payment. Change in working capital and provision amounted to EUR 17,000,000. The plus EUR 16,000,000 variance is primarily explained by the settlement of some terminal dues and some client balances.
The net cash outflow from investing activities totaled EUR 28 million, driven by our CapEx for international e-commerce logistics, parcel stockers, and capacity expansion. Also, our domestic fleet was considered into this EUR 28 million. This item constitutes the main variation in our free cash flow. The net cash outflow for financing activities amounted to minus EUR 76 million and mainly consisted of lease liabilities outflows, while we had on top of the acquisition debt last year. This brings us now to the outlook and our strategic priorities of 2025. Outlook 2025, we presented our group EBIT outlook of the range EUR 150 million-EUR 180 million back in February, and during the Q2 result in August, we indicated that we were targeting the upper end of the range. With a year-to-date EBIT of EUR 97 million, the results we’re presenting today are broadly in line with our plan, now allowing us to confirm our full-year outlook at around EUR 180 million.
This implies achieving an EBIT of around EUR 80 million-EUR 85 million in Q4, compared with EUR 80 million in the same quarter last year, sorry, compared to EUR 84 million last year. Which we are cautiously optimistic about. Based on current assumptions and expectations, we believe this is achievable. Particularly thanks to our preparation and readiness for an efficient peak execution across the group. In North America, we validated client volume capacity plan. We have secured hiring over 4,100 seasonal workers to ensure full-site coverage and put peak incentive plans in place. In Ben and Last Mile, beyond the usual measures, we have implemented additional productivity initiatives, including tracking performance at each distribution office and site. And setting up a national tool to further optimize interim and reinforcement of the planning.
Of course, we remain vigilant amid challenging market conditions, notably as volume development and the phasing out of end-of-year peak volumes in Belgium and internationally remain uncertain and partially beyond our control. To wrap up on our outlook, we are also updating our CapEx guidance with a downward revision from EUR 180 million to EUR 140 million. This reflects our disciplined approach to spending in Belgium and in the US and a strategic phasing towards 2026. Overall, we remain focused on prioritization and value creation, ensuring that every euro invested is where it has the highest impact in the group. Finally, as we usually do, I’ll take a few minutes to walk you through the progress we’ve made on our transformation plan for the last months as part of our Reshape 2029 journey we presented to you at the capital market day.
When it comes to the update on the strategic initiative, bpost continues to accelerate its transformation, shifting firmly toward becoming an international logistic and parcel operator. Let me walk you through the tangible progress we’ve made across our segment. I’ll start with Ben and Last Mile. Following two successful pilot phases, we launched our nine-delivery service on October 15 as a new B2B service consisting of a nine-time delivery solution targeted at technicians and field workers that helps eliminate detours from two central depots and saves up to one or one and a half hour, sorry, one and an hour and a half per day for these technicians and field workers. In practice, parcels are collected by bpost until 6:00 P.M. on working days, sorted overnight, and then delivered before 7:00 A.M. to selected parcel lockers of our network across Flanders, Brussels, and Wallonia.
The service is exclusively available for B2B shipment. Internal deliveries or business-to-business exchanges requiring high levels of reliability. Meanwhile, still in Belgium, our BBBox network of parcel lockers continues to expand strongly. We have now around 2,000 active units with 800 more contracted. Most of them located in prime locations and high-traffic venues like supermarkets. As announced recently with Lidl, we target to have 240 lockers by the end of this year, which represents nearly 10% of the targeted APM capacity. We currently install up to 12 new lockers per day, and by the end of this year, we intend to have 2,500 lockers installed in Belgium. On our future operating model, one of the pillars is bulk rounds. Consisting of dedicated parcel rounds in bulk serving pickup and drop-off points, including lockers.
Here as well, after a successful pilot phase, this model is now fully operational across all sorting centers, servicing 26 distribution offices and handling over 12,000 parcels a day. Before end 2025, we will extend to 29 offices with a capacity close to 21,000 parcels a day. This bulk model is set to become a cornerstone of our 2026 peak strategy, capable of managing nearly half of the out-of-home volumes. Let’s shift to 3PL Europe. We are entering into a new chapter in leadership, with Reiner Kieffer taking over as CFO of 3PL Europe and TASCI Americas as of January 2026. Succeeding Thomas Mortier, who announced earlier this year his intention to step down at the end of the year and will move into a part-time advisory role starting January 2026.
Reiner brings extensive experience from DSV and DB Schenker, with a strong track record in transformation and scaling across Europe. This appointment reflects our ambition to accelerate the transformation of the 3PL business, strengthen our European footprint, and drive value creation across the full spectrum of contract logistics, fulfillment, and omnichannel solutions. With Thomas supporting this transition and Reiner taking the helm, we are confident that the business is well positioned to execute the next phase of our growth strategy. In parallel, the integration of TASCI remains firmly on track. As cost synergies start to materialize in the second half of the year, we expect to overdeliver on our 2025 synergy targets, and the 2026 targets are already secured, fully in line with what we presented to you at the capital market day. In 3PL US, our Radial FastTrack rollout is ahead of our plan.
Sixteen customers are already live, and two more are set to launch in the fourth quarter 2025, each contributing an average ACV between EUR 4 million-EUR 5 million. The in-year revenue from FastTrack is already exceeding internal targets, providing strong momentum in the US and validating the scalable potential of the model. As Chris mentioned it last time, there’s still a lot of work ahead of us, and the first results are not always immediately visible in the P&L. This is notably the case this quarter in the US. That said, we are confident that we are on the right track and focused on doing the right things to deliver sustainable results. We are now ready to take your questions. Again, two questions each will allow every one of you to be addressed in the upcoming hour. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you’d like to ask a question or contribute on today’s call, please dial #5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial #6 on your telephone keypad. Please also ensure your line remains unmuted locally. You will be advised when to ask your question. The next question comes from Frank Clawson from Degroof Petercam. Please go ahead. Yes, good morning, gentlemen. Good morning. My two questions. Good morning. First of all, on Radial, minus 25% organically in Q3, could you split minus 25% between, let’s say, the negative same-store sales and the impact of the churn? And is this, let’s say, and what can we expect going forward? Is this the bottom, or do you expect an improving trend in the coming quarters? That is my first question.
My second question on TASCI, I understand that you do not break down the EBIT anymore or give the separate EBIT, but could you elaborate on how the profitability is developing? Is it according to plan? I recall that you had a sort of guidance or, let’s say, target of 10-12% EBIT for TASCI. Is that still valid? Could you elaborate on that? Thank you. Okay. Thank you for your two questions. Let’s start with Radial. Indeed, we observe a severe decrease in the current quarter, which is mostly explained by the churn. Again, the churn coming that was announced in 2024 that has a full-year impact in 2025, and some churn that were announced at the beginning of the year, and then they are only materializing now.
I have one very specific example in mind where the customer said, "We’re going to stop one of the two warehouses in the first, sorry, in the third quarter," so meaning now. This is part of the explanation, and this is the bulk of it. Same store sale evolution is not positive, but nowhere near what we observed in the recent quarters. If you recall, we had a terrible sequence of, if it’s in 2024, minus 4 at the beginning of the year, we peaked—wrong word, but it’s a high amount, even if it’s a negative one—around 9% in the fourth quarter 2024. The beginning of the year was also in negative territories, lower than the minus 9, and now we are slightly negative. It is not what mainly explained the different impact on the EBIT. Simply why?
Because the basis on which it applies is also by far lower. This being said, very important to notice that the variable contribution margin has been extremely high, again, sustained quarters after quarters, which is a positive sign. That is for Radial. Sorry, and there was a subset in your question about what is the trend. The trend for us is twofold. We have launched in the first quarter of this year our new product offering or service offering, which is Radial FastTrack, that aims at offering solutions which are more flexible, standardized, easy-to-onboard type of solution, also very asset-light in terms of CapEx and automation, and it is picking up. It is picking up. We have signed 16 customers. We will onboard another two between now and the end of the year. Also important to notice that.
We will be onboarding customers nearly close to the peak, which shows how flexible this solution is to onboard new customers. Historically, it was taking roughly 12 months to onboard new customers at Radial because of the high level of customization in the processes and also in the IT systems. In terms of trend, we are optimistic about the product that we have launched because we see it’s picking up. There is traction on the market. On the other end, we need to be realistic. When we are losing customers, average size between EUR 50 million-EUR 70 million, while the ACV of the FastTrack typical customers is around EUR 5 million, you can do the math as well as me. It takes time to be able to compensate this churn. We are also not aware of any new customers who have announced their departure in the near future.
That’s for Radial. For Staci, it’s going according to plan. Yes, it’s going according to plan. The EBIT margin is a bit on the low end of the range this quarter, which is mostly explained by the fact that, as I said, and again, we already announced that there is no news in that one, that we want to operate on a geographical platform as one entity, one go-to-market. We have several territories like Belgium, the Netherlands, U.K., Germany, Italy, where we’re really operating as one. The local managers there look at their portfolio of customers, what is their needs, what is the solution, the operational solution available to serve those customers, and also the footprint. Some movement has been already initiated to relocate customers where they better fit with the requirement of the customer and also optimizing the footprint.
It’s also the case in the US where one warehouse has been shut down and customers have been transferred to a new site. In Germany, the former site of TASCI Germany in Dorsten has been shut down and customers have been transferred to a former Radial site in Halle. In the Netherlands, in the Actiw portfolio, we have decided to close one of the two warehouses in Nieuwegein, and those customers have been transferred to Rosendal. These costs, these transfers demonstrate that we really want to operate at a local level as one, but it has, unfortunately, in the short term, some costs. There is cost attached to shutting down warehouses and to move customers. It’s all for the better. It’s to serve the customer the best possible way and the most efficient way on those territories. Thank you very much for the elaborate answer.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial #5 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Henk Slotboom from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Good morning, Philippe. Hello. One question from my side. We’ve been hearing a lot about levies on Chinese goods. The French want to do it unilaterally. The Dutch have already said they might follow the French, maybe already as soon as the 1st of January of next year. Now, personally, I don’t think that EUR 2 per parcel will stop the avalanche of parcels to Europe. It will simply be relocated. What does the situation look like in Belgium? I don’t know if they have similar ideas to do things unilaterally.
Could it be the case that you benefit from it if stuff is not flown at Schiphol, Amsterdam Airport, but at Liège or Brussels instead, provided, of course, that there are no drugs over there? Thank you for the question, Henk. Indeed, the situation in Belgium is that the government is thinking of putting a EUR 2 per parcel levy. It leads to a lot of questions. There is also who is going to collect these EUR 2, which is a very practical problem. There is no answer to that. Of course, we are not. We are there to carry the parcels. We are not there to collect this kind of surcharge or taxes, levies, whatever you name it. There will definitely be a question of implementation. Interestingly enough.
We had a discussion yesterday with one of our board members who’s coming from the Nordic, who faced a bit the same situation, and it took more than 12 months to find the technical solution to implement it. It is still an intent at this stage. There is no implementation date decided. Indeed, it will be difficult to implement. Your comment about, of course, if other countries are deciding for these levies, let’s say in the Netherlands, France, Germany, it could lead to additional volumes in Belgium, but anyway, it would only be a temporary solution. At this stage, it’s a very good question, but it’s a big question mark when it comes to the implementation date and also the practicalities behind it. Can I also add on to that, Philip? Sure. If I look at, for example, Austria Post or Polish Post and that sort of things.
They’ve been entering alliances with, for example, Temur and Schein, who want to move part of their logistics, and then I’m talking about warehousing and that sort of things, to Europe. You have a fantastic network of fulfillment centers with Radial Europe, with Actiw, with Staci. Is anything there being discussed with the large Chinese platforms? Again, a very good question from you, Henk, as usual. There are movements, indeed. We see the Chinese are coming closer to Europe. They’re also thinking of implementing themselves in Turkey, which is also close to Europe. Indeed, it’s a movement that we see in the market, but I will not comment any further at this stage. Okay. Respect that. Okay. Thank you very much, Philippe. Welcome. The next question comes from Marco Limite from Barclays. Please go ahead. Hello, Marco. Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I’ve got two follow-up questions.
One is on Radial US. Do we have to think about Q4 as the last quarter of year-over-year decline in revenues, and therefore we should expect growth from next year? Is the first question. And second question, on TASCI Europe. I mean, if I look at the Q3 numbers, it feels like that most of the decline year-over-year is coming from Radial US. At the same time, we’ve got one month more of Radial Europe in the base now. We basically have got 3PL Europe being flat despite growth and despite an additional month. On top of that, you’re also talking about synergies being ahead. Just the math doesn’t work for me why year-over-year things are flat despite tailwinds from synergies and an additional month. If you can clarify. Thank you. Good. I start with Radial. No.
In 2026, there still might be some decline in top line because there will be the full-year impact of the customer’s churn that we observe in 2025. Of course, the one announced in 2024 will be over in 2025, but there are some of them. That will have an impact in 2026. This being said, what is really important for us to look at is the profitability and the cash generation profile and the quality of the portfolio. I really want to remind what we said at the capital market day. Not only do we want to go for the mid-market, not to have big customers dependent on. Too big customers who are requiring huge investment in terms of customization of system, high automation, we want to move out of that one, and they will be gradually phased out.
We want to reinforce ourselves, our presence in other types of customers. ACV of Radial FastTrack is in the range of €5 million, so totally different. Also, and equally important in my eyes, is the portfolio itself in terms of the number of verticals where we want to operate in. In the past, it was focused on only two. We really want to broaden that one. We see first signs of positive results going into that direction. Again, as I said, and again, I’m also repeating what we said at the time of the capital market day, it’s a long journey. It’s not a one- or two-quarter journey. It’s a long journey to move from big anchor customer focused or very capital-intensive and focused on two verticals to something which is more nimble and flexible going forward. Again, the math.
Plays against us when it comes in terms of timing. There will be a delay between the moment we could see growth again. To be totally honest, transparent, but also totally aligned with what our forecasts are. There is nothing, no news on that one. There is no change of strategy. There is no acceleration or degradation of the situation. It is happening as we had planned to do it. When it comes to Staci. Yes. Sure. Sorry to interrupt. Can I just follow up on this one? Is there a risk that more or other large customers are going to, let’s say, leave Radial US in the future because you are moving type of strategy and type of service? The risk is always there, Marco. This being said, very interestingly enough, very interestingly, in our Radial FastTrack customers, we have.
Sixteen of them that we have are new ones, but there are also two of them that were former old solution type of customers moved to Radial FastTrack. This also demonstrates that we have now, with this solution, capabilities to address their demand. Thank you. For 3PL Europe? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I did not forget. Do not worry. On Staci, the math adds up, but there may be we need to remind all the elements of the equations. The first one, and this is the vast majority, it is all about the cost relating to the optimization of the operations in different geographies in the US, in the Netherlands, in Germany. That explains the chunk of the fact that indeed, when you do the math, you do not see a growth when it comes to Staci. There is also, but to a lesser extent, some softness in certain territories.
I’m mostly thinking about France, where the same store sale has been negative in the quarter. On the other end, as a positive note, in France, we are not seeing the departure of any customers. Okay. Very clear. Thank you. The next question comes from Mark Swartzenberg from ING. Please go ahead. Hello, Mark. Yeah. Good morning. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I also have a bit of a follow-up on Radial US because I think you mentioned you also see a significant decline still in Q4, and that fits also with the story, with the mentioning of the churn of the larger accounts. I think originally there was a sort of a guide of minus 10% to minus 20%, I believe, a bit on the full-year top line, which would indicate still, say, mid-single digit, double digit. Let’s say 15%. Maximum.
Year-on-year decline, if you plug in, say, minus 20. Is that still an applicable guidance that we’re looking at, still a double-digit decline of around 15% for Q4, just to get a bit more feel on the movement of Radial? Because it’s quite big numbers we’re talking. Okay. So, my first question. Yeah. Yeah. Please go ahead. You want me to take it immediately? So it’s more in the range. Yeah, that’s easier. Yeah. Yeah, I think it’s more in the range of 15%-20%. Q4 we’re talking about? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry, I’m writing this down quickly. Okay, thanks. That’s very helpful. Then on the parcel volumes, the working day adjusted number is plus 4.4%. That’s a slight improvement from Q2. How do you—was that stable through the quarter? How are you looking to the big season?
Do you already have a bit of an indication on the big events for Q4, what you expect there? Because I think also here the guidance was more like a mid-single digit to high single digit growth. It looks now more like on the low end of the mid-single digit. What are your thoughts there? What kind of trends do you see? In fact, there is one very important element. It’s not that it’s totally new this year, but we see—and typically in Belgium, we see more and more. Before the peak was very—excuse me, one second—very focused on one or two days. By the way, in Belgium, we have the peak, but with also Christmas and Sinterklaas. In fact, it’s the month end of November and the month of December, which are, in fact, higher months.
Unlike what we see in the US, when you see the peak, it’s a couple of days. It’s more spread all over. That period, combined with the fact that we see more and more our customers, the ones selling directly to the customers or through platform, offering throughout the year promotion, discount, and this kind of stuff. It’s very difficult to predict how it will look like. For sure, we see it’s become that higher activity is spread over more days or weeks than it was in the past. Do you see September, October trending higher than that 4.4? In that range. It’s rather stable. That’s currently the trend. Yes. That’s correct? Mm-hmm. Absolutely. Lastly, I know you’re not disclosing it, but could you give a bit of an indication of the average contribution of Staci?
Because it’s still important to model that properly also through the quarters because we saw quite a miss on the consensus on particularly the 3PL division. Whether that’s TASCI or whether that’s Radial US or whether that’s the extra cost, it would be helpful to have a bit more granularity. Can you help us there? I can help you in repeating what I told you is that the big chunk of the fact that it doesn’t grow is linked to this optimization, cost optimization, operational optimization, which is the majority of the variance and the rest coming from same sourcing. You could count on the— So TASCI had no growth on the revenue side and a bit of impact from the fine-tuning of the optimization of the warehouses. Is that how we should see it? Yes. How long will that take, that optimization of the warehouses?
Until when should we pencil that in, that the margin is maybe a bit more at the lower end? I would say, in fact, the more the people will start working together and depending on the customer need, it might lead to additional ones. This one was the obvious one. I would say in the next two quarters, I’m not expecting any site closures or major site closures. Major site closures, no. It is an ongoing process. For two quarters, yeah, exactly. We will see a little bit of double running cost in the meantime. After that, we should see the efficiencies coming through. I hope it will come faster. I hope it will come faster, but it is not to be excluded that we might decide here or there to restructure on another warehouse. There is one that was already planned in the US.
By the way, it was a journey, nearly three-year journey. At the time of the acquisition of Amware by TASCI, they had looked at the portfolio, and we were totally aware of that because it was an element that was shared with us at the time of the acquisition. They knew that they had a plan to restructure three warehouses. They have done one in 2024. There is a second one in 2025, and there will be the third one in 2026. Thinking about 2026, we should see a higher EBIT than what we probably will see in 2025. Is that the path towards your long-term outlook? Do you see a higher EBIT? Do not drag me into a budget discussion and a guidance for 2026. We will come to you on that one when we publish the Q4. I give you some element.
I have the impression of painting an impressionist painting with dots of colors, some pointillism. So I’m doing some pointillism on the US, but don’t drag me where I don’t want to be dragged. Yeah. Yeah. No, it’s the time of the year and budgeting. All right. No, thanks very much for your elaborate answers. Thanks. Welcome, Mark. The next question comes from Mark Zeck from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Yeah. Good morning. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions, too, if I may. First one on. Again. Radial US. Could you give us a bit of. More color or feeling about, let’s say, the top five customers at Radial US? How much of. Sales is that, broadly speaking? And. For these customers, is there kind of a contract renegotiation period upcoming end of 2025 or early in 2026? Or are these contracts mostly locked in for.
A longer period of time? That would be my first question. The second question also on, let’s say, the broader US business. I believe we’ve seen quite a bit of pull forward buying into the US. The imports for the first nine months of the year were pretty good, I believe, into the US. We see container imports or container arrivals at US ports dropping quite sharply now in Q4. Is your business in the US mostly related to ocean freight? Should we expect a bit of a negative business development on same-store sales as well for Radial US? Are you kind of air freight exposed from a product category where we still see quite good numbers, I would say, in the overall market? That’s my two questions. Thank you. Okay. Let me start with the second one. It’s a bit of both.
Of course, all your comments are valid. We are exposed to air freight and ocean freight. I give you a very practical example. One of the customers that we have onboarded with Radial FastTrack is a fashion brand coming from Australia who wanted to be implemented in the US. They wanted to have fulfillment there. We are hearing from customers, some other customers, that they want to be in the US rather than systematically air freighting stuff. By the way, it is no different than what we are seeing with the Chinese platform now. Let’s refer to the comment or the question earlier on the Chinese who want to implement themselves in Europe to avoid tariffs. It is the same that we are seeing in the US.
We have a very practical example, as I said, of one who really has decided to come physically in the US. There, we have definitely a role to play and a good service offering. When it comes to Radial, I also want to. Do we have big renewal in the pipe for the coming quarters? The answer is no. We already have renewed some of them in the course of 2025. There, I want to reiterate something which is extremely, extremely important. In the past, what we saw at Radial, especially with the big customers, the situation was the following. They were asking for a lot of customization, a lot of automation. That typically passed on to the customer over a period of six to eight years, while we were having contracts of roughly four years.
At the same time, we had also our warehouses locked for a period of seven to eight years. In many instances, what we saw is the customer left or did not renew the contract, and we were there even if there was some provision in the contract with an amortized portion of own developments and the liability link with these warehouses. Since the last 18 months, all renewal or all new contracts signed are co-terminus with the lease of the warehouses. It is also important to look at what could be the impact of the customers. In fact, the Radial situation we are in right now is absolutely not the same as the one we saw years ago. Okay. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions, so I will hand it back to Philippe to conclude today’s conference. Thank you.
Thank you very much, guys, for your intense question session. Antoine is always there to do the follow-up with you in the coming days and weeks. Let’s stay in touch, and next time we’ll see we’ll be able to demonstrate that we have executed the peak in a qualitative and efficient way. Thank you very much. Have a good day.
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