Earnings call transcript: Dorian LPG Q1 2025 misses earnings expectations

Dorian LPG Ltd reported its Q1 2025 earnings, revealing a significant miss in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company posted an EPS of $0.27, falling short of the anticipated $0.73, resulting in a 63% negative surprise. Revenue also lagged behind expectations, coming in at $84.2 million against a forecast of $88.4 million, marking a 4.75% shortfall. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 7.26% in pre-market trading, with shares priced at $26.70. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a P/E ratio of 12.38 and currently appears overvalued based on its Fair Value analysis.

Key Takeaways

• Dorian LPG’s EPS and revenue fell significantly short of forecasts.
• The stock price dropped 7.26% in pre-market trading.
• The company distributed a $0.60 per share dividend, totaling $25.6 million.
• Operational improvements include 16 scrubber-fitted vessels and a focus on energy efficiency.
• The company faces geopolitical tensions impacting trade routes.

Company Performance

Dorian LPG’s overall performance in Q1 2025 was below expectations, with a notable decline in both EPS and revenue. Despite these challenges, the company maintained a strong free cash balance of $278 million and continued its commitment to shareholder returns with a substantial dividend payout. The company’s debt management remains robust, with a debt balance of $543.5 million and a debt to total book capitalization ratio of 34.4%.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $84.2 million, missing the forecast by 4.75%.
• Earnings per share: $0.27, significantly below the forecast of $0.73.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $38.6 million, adjusted to $49.5 million excluding bonuses.
• Free cash balance: $278 million.
• Dividend: $0.60 per share, totaling $25.6 million.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Dorian LPG’s Q1 2025 earnings fell short of analyst expectations, with a 63% negative EPS surprise and a 4.75% revenue shortfall. This marks a significant deviation from previous quarters, where the company had shown more consistent performance. The magnitude of this miss is notable and has likely contributed to the sharp decline in stock price.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, Dorian LPG’s stock price fell by 7.26% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor disappointment with the company’s financial results. The stock is trading at $26.70, closer to its 52-week low of $16.66 than its high of $37.99, indicating a challenging environment for the company.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking forward, Dorian LPG remains optimistic about the market for the remainder of the year, with expectations of limited new build deliveries and continued improvements in energy efficiency. The company anticipates further enhancements in carbon intensity metrics, aligning with its strategic focus on sustainability.

Executive Commentary

• "Our dividend of $0.60 per share totaling $25,600,000 reflects our commitment to returning capital to shareholders," stated John Hajmataris, CEO.
• "We are committed to continually enhancing our energy efficiency," said John Lecouris, Head of Energy Transition.
• "The VLGC market reacted quickly to the shock, enabling the recovery in freight rates," noted Tara Rasmussen, VP Chartering.

Risks and Challenges

• Geopolitical tensions impacting trade routes pose a significant risk to operations.
• The company’s high spot market exposure could lead to volatility in earnings.
• Fluctuations in LPG demand, particularly from China, could affect revenue.
• Macro-economic pressures and regulatory changes in emissions could increase operational costs.
• The potential impact of shifts in the ethane carrier market remains uncertain.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the strength of the market driven by US NGL production and the improvements in terminal capacity. There were also discussions on the potential impact of shifts in the ethane carrier market, highlighting concerns about future demand and strategic positioning.

Full transcript - Dorian LPG Ltd (LPG) Q1 2026:

Leo, Conference Operator: Good morning and welcome to the Dorian LPG First Quarter twenty twenty six Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

Additionally, a live audio webcast of today’s conference call is available on Dorian LPG’s website, which is www.dorianlpg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, Mr. Young. Please go ahead.

Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer, Dorian LPG: Thank you, Leo. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us for our first quarter twenty twenty six results conference call. With me today are John Hajmataris, Chairman, President and CEO of Dorian LPG Limited John Lecouris, head of energy transition and Tara Rasmussen, vice president chartering. As a reminder, this conference call webcast and a replay of this call will be available through 08/08/2025. Many of our remarks today contain forward looking statements based on current expectations.

These statements may often be identified with words such as expect, anticipate, believe, or similar indications of future expectations. Although we believe that such forward looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that any forward looking statements will prove to be correct. These forward looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors as well as general economic conditions. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today. Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the quarterly period ended 06/30/2025 that were filed this morning on Form eight ks.

We expect to file our 10 Q on 08/05/2025. In addition, please refer to our previous filings on Forms 10 ks where you’ll find risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward looking statements. Finally, I would encourage you to review the investor highlight slides posted this morning on our website. With that, I’ll turn over the call to John Hajibateras.

John Hajmataris, Chairman, President and CEO, Dorian LPG: Hello, and thanks for joining us. My colleagues, Ted, John, and Taro, will provide you detailed comments on our financial results, our emission reduction and operational progress, and our market outlook. But first, I’d like to highlight the following. Our dividend of $0.60 per share totaling $25,600,000 reflects our commitment to returning capital to shareholders in a manner that’s aligned with market conditions and our policy of distributing earnings prudently. This will be our sixteenth dividend payment, bringing total dividends distributed to over $665,000,000 and total capital of more than $900,000,000 returned to shareholders.

In the second quarter of the year, the market proved resilient. Freight risk strengthened, supported by healthy arbitrage economics and geopolitical tensions in The Middle East. Uncertainty caused by tariff escalation displaced ships from The US Gulf to the Middle East and sent more cargoes to India. While a US mediated ceasefire between Israel and Iran in late June brought some stability, charterers remained cautious. US LPG exports continued their multiyear growth trend facilitated by ongoing expansion at US fractionation plants and export terminal capacity, as well as high NGL output.

Middle Eastern exports were also higher following the partial unwinding of OPEC plus quotas and increased production from new regional gas projects. Taro will elaborate on the fundamentals of the VLGC market and on our outlook. On the operational side, we completed 10 of our 12 dry dockings planned for 2025. John L will provide an update on our initiatives and our decision to convert some of our VLGCs to facilitate the carriage of ammonia. I’ll now pass you on to Ted for our quarterly financial overview.

Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer, Dorian LPG: Thanks, John. My comments today will focus on our unaudited first quarter results, our financial position, liquidity, and of course, allocation. For the discussion of our first quarter results, you may find it useful to refer to the investor highlight slides posted this morning on our website. Remember that my remarks will include terms such as TCE, available days and adjusted EBITDA. Please refer to our filings for the definitions of these terms.

Looking at our first quarter chartering results, we reported a TCE per available day of 39,726, which was a good result despite our heavy drydock schedule during the quarter that resulted in some one hundred and ninety five days that were not available for revenue generation. I would note that our June results were much stronger than the previous two months, which is indicative of the stronger market environment in which Tara will elaborate. Also, the Q1 results were sequentially stronger than the March. The Helios Pool reported spot rates for the quarter of about 37,700 and approximately 38,900 across the pool, underscoring the strength of our charter out portfolio in the pool. On page four of our investor highlights materials, you can see that we have two Dorian vessels on time charter within the pool, indicating spot exposure of just over 93% for the 29 vessels in the pool.

The forward bookings for the quarter ending 09/30/2025 reflect a strong increase in rates since late May into June. We currently estimate that we have fixed approximately 70% of the pool’s fixable days in the quarter at a TCE in excess of $67,000 per day. The rate includes spot fixtures and time charters in the pool. As you know, loading dates, DIS port options, and COAs can all cause the estimates we quote during these calls and the rates actually realized to vary. Daily OpEx for the quarter was $10,108 excluding dry docking related expenses, which was down marginally meaningfully rather from the March $11,001 Spares and stores costs led the decline.

This quarter saw an over $1,300 per day difference between reported OpEx that includes expense drydocking amounts and our preferred measure of OpEx that excludes those costs. The non capitalized dry docking expenses totaled about $2,600,000 and equated to 6¢ per share for the quarter. Our time charter in expense for the four TCs and vessels came in right around $29,000 per day, which compares favorably to our fleet wide TCE for the quarter, showing the profitability of our charter in program. Dorian recently chartered in the Crystal Asteria, a dual fuel DLGC that will trade in the Helios Pool. Going forward, we anticipate the quarterly TCN expense will be approximately $14,000,000 to $15,000,000 Total G and A for the quarter was affected by bonuses booked during the quarter of $8,300,000 or 19¢ a share.

Excluding the bonuses and the non cash compensation expense, cash G and A was around 6,500,000.0. For the September 30 quarter, we estimate that non cash compensation expense will increase by roughly $3,000,000 over this quarter to reflect the impact of new share grants. Again, that amount is only for the coming quarter. Our reported adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 38,600,000.0, but adjusting further for the bonuses and the expense dry docking amounts, it would have been 49,500,000.0. Total cash interest expense for the quarter was 7,100,000.0, which is marginally down sequentially from the prior quarter, and you should note that we capitalized 500,000 of interest expense on our new building, which reduced the amount on the face of the P and L.

Principal amortization remained steady. As John mentioned, looking ahead, our dry dock program is largely complete, although we expect to dry dock two more vessels this quarter. Total dry docking costs for those two vessels and remaining costs for docking is completed in the April quarter are expected to be between 6,500,000.0 and $7,000,000 We currently estimate that roughly a third of that amount will be expensed as OpEx. After that, we only have shorter in water surveys to complete. Also, we do have two remaining progress payments on our new building in September and December 2025, each roughly 12,000,000.

At 06/30/2025, we reported 278,000,000 of free cash. Cash flow during the quarter was affected by our dry docking cash outlays and the foregone revenue, but we still finished the very healthy cash balance. As disclosed this morning, we’ll pay in a regular dividend of 60¢ per share or roughly $25,600,000 in total on or about August 27 to shareholders of record as of August 12. Including this dividend, we’ve returned over $900,000,000 in cash through dividends, a self tender offer and open market repurchases. With a debt balance at quarter end of 543,500,000.0, our debt to total book capitalization stood at 34.4% and our net debt to total cap at 16.8%.

We have well structured and attractively priced debt capital with an all in cost of about 5.1%, an undrawn $50,000,000 revolver, and one debt free vessel. Coupled with our strong free cash balance, we have a comfortable measure of financial liquidity. We expect our cash cost per day for the coming year to be approximately $26,000 per day, excluding the remaining capital expenditures for dry docking and the progress payments on our new building. Including a regular dividend to be paid this month, we have paid over $665,000,000 of dividends and have generated net income of $652,000,000 over the same time period. Our BoardWays current earnings are near term cash forecast, future investment needs in the overall market environment among a number of factors in making its determination the appropriate level, if any, for our dividends.

The 60¢ per share dividend reflects a constructive market view reflecting our forward bookings, the more limited impact of dry dockings, and a somewhat more stable global trade environment. We can continue to be on the lookout for fleet renewal opportunities and will be judicious with our free cash flow, working to balance shareholder distributions, debt reduction, and fleet investment. With that, I’ll pass it over to Tara Rasmussen.

Tara Rasmussen, Vice President Chartering, Dorian LPG: Thank you, Ted, and good day everybody, and thank you for dialing in. The quarter ending 06/30/2025 witnessed dramatic impacts from the geopolitical situation for some weeks, but mostly saw steady rise in freight markets. The primary geopolitical factor creating freight market volatility, albeit briefly, was the announcement of near global tariffs by The United States. Bombing campaigns in The Middle East had several consequences, but did not rattle the VLGC market to the extent of Liberation Day. Middle East hostilities did restrict willingness of several VLGC players to call Middle East load ports and the restricted Red Sea transit has kept longer vessel transits in place.

VLGC market fundamentals remained firm despite the external impacts of tariffs and hostilities. NGL production in The United States continued to grow and the inventory build season began as expected. Other than a two week period following the tariff tit for tat, increased supply of LPG lowered Mont Belvieu prices and supported an open west to east arbitrage. U. S.

Exports of LPG on VLGCs remained stable for the quarter with monthly exports in the 4,600,000.0 to 4,800,000.0 tons per month range. Middle Eastern exports continued in line with forecasts, and LPG as a commodity continued to find outlets in the Far East despite some rumblings about petchem profitability. With benefit of some perspective, several things are notable. Firstly, the April 2 announcement of tariffs jolted many markets. The VLGC freight markets are approximately a halving in the Baltic indices within four days.

The correction was likewise swift, with most losses recovered within the next five working days. Secondly, the VLGC market reacted quickly to the shock, enabling the recovery in freight rates. Chinese LPG imports over the quarter were in line with expectations despite a dramatic fall in US origin product. The average monthly import of US origin LPG in China was about 500,000 metric tons over the quarter, compared to the average monthly import of about 1,500,000 tons in the eight preceding months back to August 2024. Imports of US origin product duly increased in various other countries, such as Japan and India.

The end June July period typically sees a low on activity with lower freight rates. This has not been the case in 2025. Adaptability by the VLGC industry in reaction to the tariffs likely preserved market profitability, helped by the inefficiencies arising from the need to recalibrate trade flows. Increasing tensions in The Middle East through June also contributed to a steady but firming freight market during the quarter. With the risk of direct hostilities increasing, fewer vessel operators were competing for Middle East cargoes.

Furthermore, the Red Sea sailing passage was again unsafe for almost all vessels after a period of looking realistic. In January through May, four to five VLGCs transited the Red Sea laden a month, but only one in June. This inefficiency added ton miles to US, Algerian, and Red Sea LPG exports. Lastly, the exemption of restrictions on ethane exports from The US to China meant that ethane carriers did not need to enter the VLGC market. Despite the brief shock to the freight market following the announcement of tariffs, the quarter ending 06/30/2025 avoided the otherwise seasonal summer low.

The Eastern market improved about 46% over the quarter, and the Western market improved almost 16%. Expectations for the rest of the year furthermore remain positive, with a limited delivery schedule of new builds and roughly 13% capacity expansion at U. S. Gulf Terminals. Thank you.

I will now pass over to Mr. John Lacouris.

John Hajmataris, Chairman, President and CEO, Dorian LPG: Thank you, Tara.

John Lecouris, Head of Energy Transition, Dorian LPG: At Dorian LPG, we are committed to continually enhancing our energy efficiency and promoting the sustainability of both our operations and our vessels. Our scrubber vessel savings for the 2026 amounted to $961,000 or $813 per calendar day, net of all scrubber operating expenses. The savings were impacted by the drydocking of several vessels during this quarter as well as by the market volatility caused by global tariff announcements and geopolitical events. Fuel differentials between high sulfur fuel oil and low sulfur fuel oil averaged $55 per metric ton, while the differential of LPG as fuel versus low sulfur fuel oil stood at $71 per metric ton, making LPG economically attractive for our dual fuel vessels. We now operate 16 scrubber fitted vessels and five dual fuel LPG vessels.

Since the start of this calendar year, we completed 10 vessels special survey combined with their dry docking. We have a further two vessels scheduled for special survey and dry dock in the 2025. There are four vessels that had dry dock last year during the 2024, which are now due to pass their special survey within this calendar year. This dry docking program was structured to ensure that all necessary pairs, class surveys and retrofits were consolidated within the vessel’s mandated special survey and dry dock periods. The approach minimizes the risk of vessels requiring a scheduled dockings at a later time.

Continuous monitoring of vessel performance has allowed emerging issues to be addressed proactively during scheduled drydockings, reducing the likelihood of future interruptions. It ensures technical and operational continuity with optimized fleet availability throughout the year. As previously reported, the third VLGC vessel to carry ammonia cargo is planned to be upgraded during its dry docking slot in the 2025. Once this last vessel is completed, five VLGC vessels in our Dorian VLGC LPG fleet will be able to carry ammonia cargoes, which includes our new building VLGC VLAC vessel, which delivers in 2026. We believe the ammonia cargo capability upgrade enhances the fleet’s commercial optionality and its readiness for employment when the first ammonia projects develop and the large ammonia cargo markets are established.

Our noted fleet AR for the second quarter twenty twenty five was 8.5% better than the IMO 2025 target. We expect further improvement in the third quarter and fourth quarters as the dry dockings and the installation of energy saving devices on recently completed vessels are fully reflected. AR is the annual efficiency ratio metric, which calculates the carbon intensity of our vessels operations. The Dorian LPG fleet exceeds the IMO’s EEXI and CII regulations. CII in particular is the Carbon Intensity Index, which assesses the operational efficiency of our vessels and their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.

An in house developed decarbonization planning tool models IMO CII ratings, EU and IMO regulatory scenarios across our fleet by incorporating projected EST installations, alternative fuel mixes and differing operational profiles. Finally, we have developed a compliance cost planner for ETS, Fuel EU and the IMO Net Zero frameworks. This tool enables real time forecasting of compliance costs, penalties and carbon level impacts, supporting the creation of decarbonization strategies both at the vessel level and across the fleet. Our continued focus on energy and emission savings reflects our belief that environmental responsibility aligns with long term value creation for our shareholders. And now I would like to pass it over to John Hejipateras for his final comments.

John Hajmataris, Chairman, President and CEO, Dorian LPG: Thank you very much. Thank you for everyone who’s checked in today. I don’t think we have any questions. So if we don’t, I leave you with it and, wish you a happy rest of the summer until next time.

Leo, Conference Operator: And pardon your interruption, gentlemen. We do have a question. Yeah. Once again, you’d like if you’d like to ask a question, please press 1 on your telephone keypad. To remove yourself from the queue, you may press 2.

We’ll take a question from Omar Nokta of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Omar Nokta, Analyst, Jefferies: Thank you. Sorry about that. I hit 1 too late in the call. Thanks for the update. I did have a couple of questions just a bit more on the macro side of the business.

Clearly the market’s gotten quite a bit stronger. I just wanted to ask and you touched on this in your comments earlier, but just when we think about how the second quarter developed, it was obviously quite erratic tariffs. But we didn’t just recover in terms of VLGC spot rates, they’ve actually really strengthened and it’s almost like things have kick started into high gear. And when we compare it to say last year where you’re earning basically double last year’s spot rate at this time, Could you maybe just give a sense of what’s driving this market? What has really propelled it from where it was earlier this year?

John Hajmataris, Chairman, President and CEO, Dorian LPG: Sure. Happy to, Omar, and very happy to hear your voice. I was hoping that we’d hear you. I’m going to give you Taro to answer your question because I think he can make the case and give you, on the field feedback better than I can.

Tara Rasmussen, Vice President Chartering, Dorian LPG: Great. Thank you, John. Thank you for the question, Omar. I believe the answer lies in the fundamentals primarily with the strength of The US’s ability to produce NGLs and get it exported. Is it different to last year?

Well it’s the growth and it shows that the balance in the market is easily made positive with incremental growth and long may that continue and I think it’s a very healthy reflection of the wider market that using experiences from the past whenever there’s been trade barriers between The US and China, that industry players were able to reflect on past learnings, adapt them, and get trade going back to normal as soon as possible made all of this possible, because if the trade flows could not realign, etc, you wouldn’t be able to take advantage of the healthy fundamentals, and the last point I would make to your question, the Red Sea transit difficulties that have escalated this year, at various points, they have helped lengthen ton miles. I hope that answers your question.

Omar Nokta, Analyst, Jefferies: Thank you. It does provide some good context. I guess maybe perhaps somewhat related, I think it’s perhaps a bit more complex but just generally when we think about The U. S. Export arb, it feels like the freight rate is capturing the lion’s share of that arb versus a year ago where it was getting a much smaller piece.

What do you think has kind of changed, if you can point to it, that’s allowed the freight part to capture such a much wider part of the export spread?

John Hajmataris, Chairman, President and CEO, Dorian LPG: Yeah. It was the increased capacity of terminals. Taro, can you elaborate?

Tara Rasmussen, Vice President Chartering, Dorian LPG: Yeah. I think the last year was in many ways an anomaly. It’s been several years since we had seen such capability and strength in the terminals to absorb more value of the arbitrage that that was. I would argue driven partly last year due to reaction to weather phenomenon and the knock on effects of delays, hurricanes leading to, then concurrently upended tugboats in the Houston Ship Channel, etc, so unique it factors with a long trail of effect. This year has been more driven by other external factors in other parts of the world, and political in nature and geopolitics.

And perhaps not the full explanation to a very good question, but I hope it helps.

Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer, Dorian LPG: It does. I just would point out, Omar, that just as Taro touched on, terminalling fees are way down year over year.

Omar Nokta, Analyst, Jefferies: Thank you. And I think it’s a function of the expansion.

Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer, Dorian LPG: Taro, you wanna Expansion of

John Hajmataris, Chairman, President and CEO, Dorian LPG: the expansion of the terminal capacity, yes. Yes.

Tara Rasmussen, Vice President Chartering, Dorian LPG: Yep. With more coming online this year. Yes.

Omar Nokta, Analyst, Jefferies: Yeah. Got it. Thank you. And and final one. You had mentioned you you mentioned that the ethane part of the market which obviously isn’t necessarily LPG but the you know with that ethane now moving there was a concern initially that ethane would maybe those ethane carriers would go into other markets.

What do you think if we were to fall into an issue where ethane in The U. S. Can’t be moved and those ships now are looking for business, what do you think is more likely that they go into the VLGC trade or is it that they would make it try to make their way to the LNG trade? Have you thought about that or way to kind of think about which way those ships would go if we get into that type of market?

John Hajmataris, Chairman, President and CEO, Dorian LPG: I think we look at them as an overhang. If the ethane trade for some reason were stopped, they would be entering the VLGC market. That’s the way we’ve looked at it. I haven’t got any sense that they would go into LNG. I don’t think they’re capable of doing it, but we are also kind of confident that it won’t happen because too much of our exports are being absorbed by China and almost all of every that China gets has to come from us.

So I don’t think be, it’s gonna happen, but if it did, if for any reason, that was already the talk that we may see some ships kind of creeping into our business. Also, if you did it, then you have to get back into ethane. You can’t just keep going back and forth, ethane to LPG. You can go from ethane to LPG easily, but not the other way around.

Omar Nokta, Analyst, Jefferies: Okay. Thanks for that explanation, and and thanks, guys, for the, for the detail and update. I’ll turn it back.

Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer, Dorian LPG: Thanks, Omar.

Leo, Conference Operator: Thank you. And it appears that we have no further questions at this time.

John Hajmataris, Chairman, President and CEO, Dorian LPG: Okay. Well, thank you all again. Thank you, Omar, and have a good rest of the summer.

Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer, Dorian LPG: Thank you.

Leo, Conference Operator: This does conclude today’s conference. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day. Thank

John Hajmataris, Chairman, President and CEO, Dorian LPG: you, Mr. Leo.

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