Earnings call transcript: Heritage Insurance Q4 2024 beats EPS forecast

Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. (HRTG) reported its Q4 2024 earnings on March 11, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66, compared to the forecasted $0.33. The company also exceeded revenue expectations, reporting $210.26 million against a forecast of $208.37 million. Despite these positive results, the stock fell by 5.26% to $11.88 in the subsequent trading session. According to InvestingPro data, the company trades at an attractive P/E ratio of 4.9x, with three analysts recently revising their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period. The stock currently sits near its Fair Value based on comprehensive analysis.

Key Takeaways

• Heritage Insurance exceeded both EPS and revenue forecasts for Q4 2024.
• The company reported a full-year net income increase to $61.5 million in 2024.
• Stock price declined by 5.26% following the earnings release.
• Heritage is focusing on expanding its commercial residential business.
• Projected pretax net catastrophe losses for Q1 2025 are between $35-$40 million.

Company Performance

Heritage Insurance Holdings demonstrated robust financial performance in 2024, with a significant increase in net income to $61.5 million, up from $45.3 million in the previous year. The company’s strategic focus on expanding its commercial residential business contributed to this growth, with premiums in this segment rising by 13%. Heritage’s ability to maintain profitability despite $105 million in pretax catastrophe losses underscores its effective risk management strategies.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $210.26 million in Q4 2024, surpassing the forecast of $208.37 million.
• Earnings per share: $0.66 in Q4 2024, above the forecast of $0.33.
• Full Year 2024 Net Income: $61.5 million, up from $45.3 million in 2023.
• Gross Premiums Earned: $360.5 million, a 6.1% year-over-year increase.
• Return on Equity (ROE): 24.1% for the full year 2024.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Heritage Insurance’s Q4 2024 EPS of $0.66 beat the forecasted $0.33, marking a significant positive surprise of 100%. This performance reflects the company’s strong operational execution and effective cost management.

Market Reaction

Despite the earnings beat, Heritage Insurance’s stock declined by 5.26% to $11.88 following the announcement. This decline may be attributed to broader market trends or concerns about future catastrophe losses, as projected for Q1 2025. The stock remains below its 52-week high of $16.90.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Heritage Insurance anticipates meaningful rate increases in 2025 and controlled new business growth. The company projects pretax net catastrophe losses of $35-$40 million for Q1 2025. Heritage continues to focus on technological infrastructure and enhancing shareholder value. With a market capitalization of $336 million and a beta of 1.0, the company shows moderate market sensitivity. InvestingPro subscribers can access additional valuable insights, including 6 more ProTips and detailed financial metrics that help evaluate the company’s growth trajectory and risk profile.

Executive Commentary

CEO Ernie Garite emphasized the company’s resilience, stating, "Our ability to not only maintain our profitability, but also deliver healthy earnings and returns in the face of significant catastrophic losses is a result of a multi-year effort." CFO Kirk Lusk added, "We continue to maintain a robust level of reinsurance coverage," highlighting the company’s strong risk management framework.

Risks and Challenges

• Potential for increased catastrophe losses, impacting profitability.
• Changes in reinsurance pricing could affect cost structures.
• Legislative changes in key markets may alter competitive dynamics.
• Market volatility could affect investor sentiment and stock performance.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the company’s exposure to California fire claims, with Heritage confirming 15 total loss claims and approximately 20 smoke damage claims. The company also discussed plans to expand Excess & Surplus (E&S) lines, particularly in California, and its strategy to reopen profitable territories across its geographic footprint.

Full transcript - Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc (HRTG) Q4 2024:

Conference Operator: Good morning, and welcome to the Heritage Insurance Holdings Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Earnings Conference Call. Please note today’s event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kirk Lusk, Chief Financial Officer for the company. Please go ahead, sir.

Kirk Lusk, Chief Financial Officer, Heritage Insurance Holdings: Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We invite you to visit the Investors section of our website, investors. Heritage pci dot com, where the earnings release and our earnings call will be archived. These materials are available for replay or review at your convenience. Today’s call may contain forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

These statements are based upon management’s current expectations and subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. In our earnings press release and our SEC filings, we detail material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, and we have no obligation to update any forward looking statements we may make. For a description of the forward looking statements and the risks that could cause our results to differ materially from those described in the forward looking statements, please refer to our annual report on Form 10 ks, earnings release and other SEC filings. Our comments today will also include non GAAP financial measures.

The reconciliations of and other information regarding these measures can be found in our press release. With me on the call today is Ernie Garite, our Chief Executive Officer. I will now turn the call over to Ernie.

Ernie Garite, Chief Executive Officer, Heritage Insurance Holdings: Thank you, Kirk. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Over the course of 2024, we experienced numerous destructive hurricanes that impacted communities across the Southeastern United States and in 2025, we’ve seen devastating wildfires affecting residents of California and now New York. Our thoughts continue to be with those impacted by these devastating catastrophes that have left millions with significant damage and loss. In this time of crisis, our employees have worked tirelessly to provide support for our policyholders as they recover from these catastrophic events.

I am proud and appreciate our talented and dedicated employees and the resilience that our company has demonstrated after these catastrophic events. The company is performing well, which is not only evident in our support of our customers and communities, but also our financial performance. Our fourth quarter results clearly demonstrate the results of our strategic efforts over the last several years to attain rate adequacy, manage exposures and enhance our underwriting discipline. Our ability to generate profits in each of the last two quarters where we incurred significant losses associated with three hurricanes demonstrates the transformation that has occurred at Heritage. For the full year 2024, we achieved net income of $61,500,000 or $2.01 per share, representing a strong increase from the full year twenty twenty three’s net income of $45,300,000 or $1.73 per share.

Additionally, we grew our tangible book value per share 30% to $9.5 at 12/31/2024, as compared to year end 2023, while achieving an ROE of 24.1%. These are notable results given that we were impacted by 105,000,000 pretax from 2024 hurricanes. Our ability to not only maintain our profitability, but also deliver healthy earnings and returns in the face of significant catastrophic losses is a result of a multi year effort where we have focused on executing our underwriting and rate adequacy initiatives. From an underwriting perspective, we continue to strategically reduce our exposures in over concentrated and unprofitable areas, while increasing our presence in profitable geographies and products. As we have discussed in prior earnings call, we expect a declining policy count to moderate over the next few quarters as we open territories for new business given the improvements in the quality of our Boca business.

We have also maintained a stable indemnity based reinsurance program at manageable costs through our policy count and exposure management initiatives, while also proactively engaging with our reinsurance partners. In fact, I was in Bermuda, Europe and The U. S. In February meeting with many of our reinsurance partners who all expressed their support for Heritage and were encouraged by our improved performance. I would like to thank our dedicated reinsurance partners who have supported our business throughout multiple catastrophic events over the last several years and look forward to their continued partnership as we work to further expand the company.

Our rate adequacy initiative had resulted in significant and appropriate rate increases, which are earning through our portfolio in 2024. Looking to 2025, we anticipate an even more meaningful amount of rate to earn through our portfolio, which we expect will provide a healthy tailwind to our financial results. Additionally, we have selectively started writing new personal lines business anchored by a continued focus on risk management and stringent underwriting. Our expectation is that our new business growth will be controlled, but will begin to accelerate through 2025. As we discussed last quarter, recent legislative changes in Florida are having a positive impact on the economics of writing new profitable business in the State of Florida.

In fact, we have seen a market decline in frivolous lawsuits. We believe that the impact of this necessary legislation will be favorable to the consumer. We expect the reinsurance market will see the tangible benefits of the legislation as Hurricane Milton claims mature through this year and into next year, which may reduce reinsurance pricing. Our E and S business continues to provide options for our product offerings as we continue to write this business in California, Florida and South Carolina. We also plan to continue to evaluate more states for E and S opportunities as we focus on our controlled growth strategy.

What makes this business so attractive is that we can adjust our rates and coverages to the changing dynamics state by state to ensure we continue to earn appropriate risk adjusted returns for providing consumers in those states with needed insurance protection. Looking forward, we remain resolute in maintaining a balanced and diversified portfolio as no single state represents over 30% of our total insured value. We believe this selective diversification will help reduce performance volatility and ensure our long term stability, which we believe will be reflected in the value of our company over time. We believe we have the foundation in place to deliver solid profitable growth in 2025 as we continue to execute our strategy aimed at fostering shareholder value. To conclude, I would like to reiterate our dedication to navigating the complexities of our market with a strategic focus that prioritizes long term profitability and shareholder value, driven by our dedicated workforce.

Kirk, I will now turn the call over to you.

Kirk Lusk, Chief Financial Officer, Heritage Insurance Holdings: Thank you, Ernie, and good morning, everyone. Starting with our financial highlights, we reported net income of $20,300,000 or $0.66 per diluted share in the fourth quarter compared to $30,900,000 or $1.15 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. The decrease in net income was primarily driven by higher catastrophe losses in the quarter. Additionally, a higher effective tax rate caused the provision for income taxes in the current year quarter to be proportionally higher compared to the prior year quarter. Our fourth quarter results continue to demonstrate our successful efforts to improve our portfolio as we remain profitable despite having incurred $57,000,000 pretax of catastrophe losses, which includes reinstatement premiums.

Our one objective of our strategic initiatives has been to remain profitable in a quarter with a significant catastrophe. We have now delivered on that goal two quarters in a row, which is a real validation of the successful execution of our plan and provides optimism for the earnings power of the company moving forward. Gross premiums earned rose to $360,500,000 up 6.1% from $339,600,000 in the prior year quarter, reflecting our strategic focus on rate adequacy and organic growth in our commercial residential and surplus lines business. Net premiums earned increased to $199,300,000 up 12.2% from $177,700,000 in the prior year quarter reflecting growth in gross premiums while ceded premiums were relatively flat. Our strategic focus on expanding profitable products and markets includes the organic growth of our commercial residential business for which we selectively increased the premiums in force by 13% compared to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, while total insured value only increased by 8.7%.

The commercial residential business tends to have a lower attritional loss ratio while generating material higher average premium. This segment now accounts for 20% of our in force premiums compared to 18.8% in the prior year period. Our net investment income for the quarter was $8,500,000 an increase of 27% from $6,700,000 in the prior year quarter. The increase reflects our actions to align the investment with the yield curve while maintaining high quality portfolio of short duration assets. Our total revenues for the quarter were $210,300,000 up 12.5% from $187,000,000 in the prior year quarter.

This improvement was driven by the increase in net earned premiums and investment income. Our net loss ratio for the quarter increased to 54.7%, a 3.7 increase from 51% in the same quarter last year, reflecting higher net losses and LAE driven by Hurricane Milton in the current year quarter. The impact of higher net losses in LAE from Hurricane Milton was partially offset by lower attritional losses and higher net earned premiums. Additionally, the net loss ratio was impacted by net unfavorable loss development of $3,800,000 during the quarter of twenty twenty four compared to net unfavorable loss development of $1,800,000 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. Other weather losses were $5,600,000 in the fourth quarter compared to $11,000,000 in the prior year quarter.

As Ernie touched on, we have continued to see favorable trends in the current year loss costs attributable to the legislative changes made in Florida and the improvements in our underlying portfolio. We continue to evaluate each state on an ongoing basis to make adjustments as necessary to maintain rate adequacy and improve our underwriting results. We continue to maintain a robust level of reinsurance coverage as noted by our $1,300,000,000 reinsurance tower in the Southeast, 1 Point 1 Billion Dollars in the Northeast and $750,000,000 in Hawaii. This combined with our strategic actions that we have taken over the last three years to mitigate losses from significant events, places us in a strong financial position. Our net expense ratio for the quarter was 35%, a 1.1 increase from 33.9% in the prior year’s quarter.

This was driven primarily by the increase in higher policy acquisition costs and general and administrative expenses outpacing increase in net premiums earned. Net combined ratio for the quarter was 89.7%, up 4.8 points from 84.9% in the prior year quarter, driven by higher net loss ratio and higher net expense ratio just described. Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total assets of 2,500,000,000 and shareholders’ equity of $290,800,000 Our book value per share increased to $9.5 at 12/31/2024, up 30.3% from the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three and up 85.2 from the fourth quarter of twenty twenty two. The increase from 12/31/2023, is primarily attributable to net income as well as $8,700,000 reduction in unrealized losses on the company’s fixed income securities portfolio.

The unrealized losses are unrelated to credit risk, but instead attributable to rising interest rates with the reduction in unrealized losses driven by lower interest rates during 2024. Carriage does not anticipate a need to sell investments in advance maturity. As such, the company expects unrealized losses to continue to roll off the portfolio as investments mature. The average duration of the fixed income portfolio is three point one years as the company has extended duration to take advantage of higher yields further out on the yield curve while maintaining short duration high quality portfolio. Our annualized return on equity for the quarter was 28.524.1% for the full year of 2024.

Turning to the first quarter of twenty twenty five, we continue to monitor the effects of California wildfires and anticipate that we will incur approximately $35,000,000 to $40,000,000 of pretax net current accident quarter catastrophe losses. In 2025, we expect our rate increases to continue to earn through our book of business, which will provide a continued tailwind for growth. I would also like to highlight that we absorbed catastrophe losses and associated reinstatement premiums in 2024 of $105,000,000 pretax or $80,600,000 after tax, which equates to $2.63 for earnings per share. I point this out to highlight the earnings trends of the company. Looking ahead, we remain focused on executing our strategic initiatives aimed at driving shareholder value.

We believe that our proactive approach to managing exposures, enhancing rate adequacy and investing in technology infrastructure will position us well for continued success. Thank you for your time today. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

Conference Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. First question comes from Carol Camille with Citizens. Please go ahead.

Carol Camille, Analyst, Citizens: Yeah. Hi. Good morning. I just have a question regarding your LA Fire claims. Can you describe the profile of the claims?

Are they mostly straightforward total loss claims or are there more complex smoke damage claims? And then also if you can maybe give a mix of the percentage of claims out of the Eaton Fire versus the Palisades Fire?

Ernie Garite, Chief Executive Officer, Heritage Insurance Holdings: So for total claims, we have 15 that are total and then the remaining 20 or so have some kind of smoke damage to that event. And most of those claims we have a couple in the Eaton Fire and then the remaining being in Palisades.

Carol Camille, Analyst, Citizens: Okay, great. Thank you. And then just one follow-up regarding the prior period development for the quarter. Can you just provide more detail as to that?

Kirk Lusk, Chief Financial Officer, Heritage Insurance Holdings: Yes. The bulk of that has to do with hurricane Irma, where we’re actually getting towards the tail out of it and have what really wound that down and have a few claims remain.

Carol Camille, Analyst, Citizens: Got it. Thank you very much.

Ernie Garite, Chief Executive Officer, Heritage Insurance Holdings: All right. Thank you.

Conference Operator: The next question comes from Maxwell Frischer with Truist. Please go ahead.

Maxwell Frischer, Analyst, Truist: Hey, good morning. I’m on for Mark Hughes. As you continue to achieve rate adequacy in most of your markets in the admitted market, how are you looking at growth in E and S? Do you continue to see the same momentum there as previously?

Ernie Garite, Chief Executive Officer, Heritage Insurance Holdings: So we do, but I think with the E and S, we’re using that in very distinct markets that gives us the ability to adapt to those market dynamics state by state. So obviously, we look at what’s going on in those markets, the regulatory environment, the ability to get rate, the ability to change coverages. I think we look at each of those markets individually and make decision whether the admitted product or the E and S product is a best fit for that market.

Kirk Lusk, Chief Financial Officer, Heritage Insurance Holdings: On top of that, I mean, all the business we ride in California is E and S and really that’s been the bulk of the growth in the E and S product.

Maxwell Frischer, Analyst, Truist: Got it. Thank you. And then you had noted how you plan to reopen profitable territories. Does this just include Florida or which geographies are

Kirk Lusk, Chief Financial Officer, Heritage Insurance Holdings: you finding most attractive at this point? No, this is including our entire footprint, Northeast, Southeast, so it’s everywhere.

Maxwell Frischer, Analyst, Truist: Got it. Thank

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.