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In its Q1 2025 earnings call, Safran SA reported a robust revenue increase of 16.7% year-over-year, driven by strong performance across its business segments. The company, currently valued at $2.19 million in market capitalization, has maintained a strong financial position with an overall health score of 2.88 (rated as GOOD) according to InvestingPro analysis. The stock remained stable with no significant change in its trading price post-announcement, though it has delivered an impressive 150% return over the past six months.
Key Takeaways
- Safran achieved a 16.7% increase in Q1 2025 revenue, reaching 7.26 billion euros.
- The propulsion segment led growth with a 16.4% organic increase.
- Safran revised its spare parts revenue growth guidance to low teens.
- The company is confident in reaching the high end of its full-year targets.
Company Performance
Safran’s overall performance in Q1 2025 demonstrated significant growth across its core segments. The propulsion segment, a major contributor, saw a 16.4% organic revenue increase, reflecting strong demand in civil aerospace and defense. The company’s equipment and defense segment reported an 11% increase, while aircraft interiors revenue rose by 14%. These gains underscore Safran’s competitive position in the aerospace industry.
Financial Highlights
- Revenue: 7.26 billion euros, up 16.7% year-over-year
- Propulsion Revenue: 3.7 billion euros, up 16.4% organically
- Equipment and Defense Revenue: 2.8 billion euros, up 11%
- Aircraft Interiors Revenue: approximately 800 million euros, up 14%
Outlook & Guidance
Safran has revised its guidance for spare parts revenue growth to the low teens, reflecting strong market demand. The company expects a 15-20% increase in LEAP engine deliveries and remains confident in reaching the high end of its full-year targets. With a beta of 0.9, the stock shows lower volatility compared to the broader market. Tariff impacts are currently excluded from the guidance, but the company plans to pass these costs onto customers. Investors should note that the next earnings announcement is scheduled for April 28, 2025, just 4 days away, as reported by InvestingPro.
Executive Commentary
Olivier, an executive at Safran, stated, "We are confident to reach the high end of the guidance," highlighting the company’s strong market position and robust backlog. Pascal, the CFO, emphasized the company’s proactive supply chain and foreign exchange management, which are crucial for navigating potential tariff impacts.
Risks and Challenges
- Potential tariff impacts could affect profitability if not fully passed to customers.
- Fluctuations in foreign exchange rates may impact financial performance.
- Supply chain disruptions could hinder production and delivery schedules.
- Market saturation in certain segments might slow growth.
- Geopolitical tensions could influence defense sector demand.
Safran’s Q1 2025 performance reflects its strategic initiatives and strong market demand, positioning it well for continued growth despite potential challenges. For deeper insights into Safran’s financial health, valuation metrics, and growth prospects, access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available exclusively on InvestingPro, part of their coverage of over 1,400 top stocks.
Full transcript - Safran SA (SAF) Q1 2025:
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: I’m here with Pascal, and let us go straight to the key highlights. We had a strong start to the year with a very solid momentum across both civil, aerospace and defense. Revenue was up 17% year on year, nearly 14% organically, reaching €7,300,000,000 Growth was once again driven by a robust demand for aftermarket across the board. In particular, on CVD engines, sales of spare parts were up by 25%, exceeding our expectations, and sales of services increased by close to 18%.
On the strategic front, we have made good progress toward the acquisition of Collins Actuation and Flight Control activities with the attention of the European Commission approval, subject to ongoing analysis on the divestment of North American electromechanical actuation business and Woodward suitability as a purchaser and the close of the consultation period by the CMA in The UK on this divestment. Decisions are still pending. Our current performance and the strong momentum we are seeing in our markets give us high confidence in meeting our full year targets, while keeping potential tariff impact out of the equation. Let us turn to Slide four, highlighting strong momentum across our Civil and Defense and Space activities. CFM got additional orders from Malaysian Airlines as well as Olimpo Airways.
We are pleased to welcome MTU Dallas as our sixth LEAP Premier MRO partner, further expanding the LEAP open MRO market, a key point of our strategy that we presented during our last Capital Market Day. Our Helicopter engines offering is meeting success with the selection of our RH2E engine on the Airbus H140 and our IL-2W engine on the new Robinson Air eighty eight helicopter. In Defense and Space, we achieved a significant milestone with the successful first commercial flight of Ariane six. The Finnish Defense Forces selected our Geonix Advanced Inertial Navigation System and we secured a contract with Bell Textron to support The US future long range assault aircraft with testing solutions and antennas. Our new mobility, the engineers have been selected by Assandance in France for their VTOL aircraft.
This illustrates the strong dynamism of our global activities. On Slide five, let me now say a word on tariff. It reflects the latest known situation which remains very fluid. As you know, the global aviation sector has long operated in a tariff free regime for the benefit of all parties on both sides of the Atlantic. Implementation of tariff will result in additional cost for the industry and for the final customers.
To mitigate any economic impact, we are leveraging available regulatory mechanisms, such as duty drawback, USMCA exemption, use of free trade zones, of bundled warehouses, along with other strategies such as modifying logistical flows. Before those actions, which are already largely underway, we expect to reduce significantly our gross exposure. We are now engaging into commercial discussion with our customers, OEM and airlines. And from there, we expect to reduce further the impact. Our teams are fully dedicated to executing these operational actions.
Although, some actions will take time to materialize. At this stage, given the level of uncertainty, it is too early to quantify the impact. As a result, our 2025 outlook excludes any potential impact from tariffs. In addition, while the broader environment is uncertain, we are closely monitoring secondary effects on consumer confidence and air traffic data. Today’s demand remains strong, and we are operating from a position of strength given the robust backlog.
I will now let Pascal provide further comments on our Q1 figures.
Pascal, CFO, Safran: Thank you, Olivier. Good morning, everyone. Let’s start with an update on FX on Slide seven. The macro uncertainty mentioned by Olivier has resulted in the depreciation of the dollar against the euro since early April. The euro dollar is now trading around 1.13, one point one four, which compares to an average of 1.05 in Q1 twenty twenty five.
Our hedge portfolio is composed of options, some of which may be deactivated if a CAO barrier is reached. Our trading floor is working to reduce any immediate risk of deactivation. By the way, the latest fluctuation did not lead to any deactivation. In any case, we have secured a hedge rate of 112 this year. Notwithstanding any risk of deactivation, as of March 2025, our hedge book stands at €54,100,000,000 mostly unchanged from the December.
Turning to page eight, Q1 20 20 five revenue reached €7,260,000,000 up 16.7% year over year. We delivered €1,000,000,000 of additional revenues compared to Q1 last year with strong organic growth of nearly 14%. Services led the way with nearly 20% organic growth, more than twice the OE rate. Currency had a supportive impact of 2.3%, reflecting a more favorable euro dollar spot rate of 105 compared to 109 a year ago. This translates into a positive impact on sales of nearly €140,000,000.
ENSCOP contributed a modest 0.5% notably from the acquisition of Predigence an Air Liquide Oxygen System in 2024. Let me now provide a few details per activity. Propulsion revenue reached €3,700,000,000 up 16.4% organically year over year. LEAP OE deliveries were down 13% year over year with three nineteen engines delivered. However, the favorable customer mix did more than offset the volume impact.
Civic aircraft engines aftermarket continued to benefit from a high level of demand with spare parts up 25.1%, boosted by demand for both CFM56 and high thrust engines, which is a combination of price and volume, and specifically on high thrust engines, heavier work scope. Services were up 17.6%, mainly driven by the LEAP contracts. Strong demand in spare parts is reflected in the revised assumption of our full year guidance. Military aftermarket activity has been robust, with strong growth on spares and services, notably on the M88 engine. Helicopter tubing services increased as well, supported by both volume and pricing.
Equipment and defense, its revenue grew by 2 to €2,800,000,000, up 11% year over year. We saw strong growth in OE deliveries, especially from nacelles and continued strength in avionics on SADAC and actuators. On defense and space, we had good momentum with robust growth in satellite communication systems, land systems like optronics, missiles propulsion, guidance systems, and aerospace inertial navigation. Services activity was up, supported by spares and landing gear, wheels and brakes, and nacelles. Aircraft Interiors performed well as well, with revenue reaching close to €800,000,000 up 14% and now and for the first time exceeding its Q1 twenty nineteen level of sales by 8%.
This was driven by nearly tripling business class seat deliveries, highlighting improved industrial performance and continued momentum in the business class seats market. Services also grew mainly on cabin spares with strong demand, especially from airlines in Middle East And Asia. Let me now walk you through our latest actions regarding debt management and share repurchases. First, on the Ocean 2028 early redemption. We executed a soft call on April 1 on the EUR730 million worth of twenty twenty eight Oseans.
More than 93% of these convertible bonds were converted into existing shares that had been previously repurchased. The remaining bonds were reimbursed at par for a total cash out of EUR49 million. The early redemption improved our net cash position by EUR673 million. Moving to the share repurchase program for cancellation. Between Jan and April, ’1 point ’5 million shares were repurchased for cancellation purpose and there are €350,000,000 first tranche program.
In addition, 200,000.0 shares originally acquired to meet conversion needs and Safran convertible bonds were reallocated for cancellation. This amount for a total of 1,700,000.0 shares for cancellation to date. And as a reminder, Safran will propose to its shareholder vote a dividend per share of €2.9 for fiscal year twenty twenty four to be paid early June. Olivier, back to you.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Thank you, Pascal. As already mentioned earlier in the call, our current performance and the strong momentum we are seeing in both Civil Aerospace and Defense sectors give us high confidence in meeting our full year targets, excluding any potential tariff impact. The only adjustment refers to spare part revenue growth now expected in the low teens compared to our previous high single digit plus forecast. Thank you. We will now answer your question.
Conference Moderator: Thank Thank you. We will now take our first question. This is from the line of Ben Heelan from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Ben Heelan, Analyst, Bank of America: Yes. Good morning, guys. I hope you both are well. First question for me is on tariffs. So we’ve seen estimates from a number of the global peers now.
Can you can you talk a little bit about what your exposure is and and where the exposure is divisionally? Thank you.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Hello, Ben. As you know, the situation is very unsettled, and the tariff situation can change and evolve very quickly. As a as an evidence of it, yesterday night, China has decided to exempt from tax any deliveries of engines, nacelles, landing gears, or parts to China. So you see the assumptions are changing every week, sometimes every day. This is why we are reluctant to communicate on the quantification of the impact because this is totally relying on changing assumptions.
There’s a ninety day pause, as as as you know. We don’t know yet what’s going to be the outcome of the negotiation between the EU and the US administration. So we know that it’s not going to stay like it is today, and we could expect and we should expect a retaliation from Europe. So this is why, basically, we we are cautious and don’t want to communicate on, the quantification because that would be like chasing a moving ball and we don’t want to enter into that game. So what we are focusing on are the real mitigation actions.
And our teams are focused on mitigating basically our exposure. As we said, we are optimizing logistical flows. So anytime, you know, we have a flow of parts or whatever that are going to step by The US without any modification or with a very slight modification, transformation typically, we can change the flow and go directly from country A to country B without stepping by The US if it is not necessary. Why should we do that? So optimizing the logistical flows, relying on USMCA anytime it is applicable and we basically, our team have worked a lot to maximize the coverage of our parts in Mexico, which are covered by USMCA.
So we’ve been working hard on certificate of origins and so on and we have optimized and maximized the coverage of our parts manufactured in Mexico. We are going to leverage also on duty drawback anytime it is applicable. We are implementing free trade zones and bonded warehouse anytime it is practicable. And of course, we are going to activate any favorable close in our contracts that we can activate with our customers. So we are very confident that through all those physical actions, if you wish, we can, let’s say, significantly reduce our gross exposure.
There will remain a net exposure. And this net exposure is very simple. We are going to we are engaged with customers, OEM and airlines, and we won’t be shy. We will apply a tariff surcharge to the airlines and to our customers. There is no mystery.
At the end of the day, this tariff situation is creating inflation, so be it. So we are going to impose tariff surcharge to our customers, and we won’t be shy.
Ben Heelan, Analyst, Bank of America: Olivier, a quick follow on from that. Is it fair then to say, given the USMCA compliance that I think you have across equipment and interiors that most of the net impact that you mentioned there is going to lie within propulsion? Is that a fair comment?
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Propulsion could be a a meaningful part of our remaining exposure. And here, we we are on on the same boat as our partner GE. We and so in our, let’s say, partnership, we share the cost of transportation, tariff of the modules that are delivered to the assembly lines, both sides of The Atlantic. And we are aligned on our strategy going forward and our engagement with our customers, OEM and airline customers. So yes, we are confident to be able to pass through most of our net exposure.
Ben Heelan, Analyst, Bank of America: Okay, very clear. Final quick one for me. Can you comment on the supply chain and how the supply chain has reacted to the tariffs. Obviously, we’ve seen the news around Calmette and the potential, the timing of force majeure. What is the situation in the supply chain?
Is stuff still moving generally, in terms of supply chain? And what sort of support are you in that kind of offering to some of your suppliers? Thank you.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Yes, Ben. Thank you for that question. As you know, the supply chain has been heavily fragilized post COVID. And we basically, the supply chain has progressively recovered. So we were getting to a situation where we were close to normalization end of last year.
So now what’s happening is, you’re right, we see some signals and ringing here and there from suppliers telling us that basically they have inflationary cost because of the tariff. And therefore, basically, there are some of them telling us that basically they would like us to absorb the extra cost and even some of them threatening to stop deliveries. So of course, we are monitoring this situation very carefully containing the impact, but the fact is that the tariff situation creates a new element of potential disturbance in the supply chain. But we are going to remain focused on making sure we can deliver to our airframers and airline customers.
Ben Heelan, Analyst, Bank of America: Okay. Great. Thank you.
Conference Moderator: Thank you. We’ll now take our next question. This is from Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Christophe Menard, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I had actually two questions. The first one on your guidance and excluding tariffs quite obviously. Would you say that the better performance of Q1 puts you more at the high end the guidance in terms of free cash flow and EBIT?
The second question is more linked to the LEAP delivery performance. Can you comment a little bit more on the mix? What was the percentage of spare engine in Q1? And how confident are you in terms of, well, delivering that increase in the full year? Obviously, you confirm the guidance, but what are the means?
What are the what was in place to actually achieve that guidance? Thank you.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Christophe, on the guidance, yes, indeed. We are confident to reach the high end of the guidance.
Pascal, CFO, Safran: So it gives, Christopher, it gives room for maneuver in case we have to experience any impact on tariffs because clearly, the Q1 quarter was really strong. So it helps.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: On LEAP, yes, we had a slow start in Q1. We are confident we will be able to recover in Q2 and Q3. And so we confirm our guidance to a plus 15% to 20% increase compared to 2024. Relating to the mix of spare engines, as you know, we have already communicated on that. We are in the low double digit situation, mixed of spare engines compared to the overall, let’s say, delivery of engines.
By the way, I’ve looked at basically the numbers since the start of LEAP of the LEAP program. And if I go back and see what happened since the start of the program, we are at low double digit, in fact, since 2016. So we are there and but the mix in Q1 was even way above that average. This is just the reflection of, let’s say, the fact that we have prioritized LEAP deliveries to Airbus at the end of last year. And so we had to reprioritize airlines at the beginning of this year.
That was an impact. Now what the mix that we have seen in Q1 was extremely good of spare engine versus installed engines, but it’s not a reflection of the full year. So the spare engines deliveries are going to be mainly front loaded.
Christophe Menard, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Okay. Thank you. And is it a number above 20%, for instance? Or
Pascal, CFO, Safran: It’s up year over year and it’s slightly down quarter on quarter. It’s it was a good number, a good ratio in Q1, but we won’t comment further.
Christophe Menard, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Okay. Thank you very much.
Pascal, CFO, Safran: Thank
Conference Moderator: you. We’ll now take our next question. This is from Chloe Lemarie from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Chloe Lemarie, Analyst, Jefferies: Yes, good morning. I limit myself to one today. So just one follow-up on tariffs. Could I maybe ask a bit more details on where you need to share those costs at the CFM level versus what would be your responsibility? And would it be fair to assume that the CFM level tariffs would only be a fraction of the $500,000,000 impact disclosed by your partner this week?
Thank you.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Hello. As as I said, on on CFM, as part of the partnership, we share the burden of transportation and tariff cost on the final assembly module. So any module that we ship to The US for assembly in The US, within the g factory. Basically, those tariff and those transportation costs are shared. And basically, it goes the same way on the reverse side.
So any transportation costs, including potentially tariff sent by GI Aerospace to our final assembly line in France for deliveries to Airbus, those costs are shared, transportation cost and and tariff cost. Now, as you know, within the partnership, everyone is responsible for its own cost and its own supply chain cost. So the, let’s say, the potential supply chain inflationary cost, which are basically the result, which could be the result of the tariff, will have to be managed by each other partner separately. So this is a situation. Now, it means that most of our exposure relating to the CFM56 and the LEAP engines are shared between GE Aerospace and us.
And, of course, this is a meaningful part of what, our partner has communicated, I guess.
Chloe Lemarie, Analyst, Jefferies: Very clear. Thank you.
Conference Moderator: Thank you. We’ll now take our next question. This is from Ian Douglas Pennant from UBS. Please go ahead.
Ian Douglas Pennant, Analyst, UBS: Thanks for taking my question, and thanks for all the helpful commentary on tariffs. Just to continue the conversation, pleased to hear you talking about a temporary surcharge to your customers to cover the costs of any tariffs. How should we think about the offset and the risk of an increase in engine retirements that results from that? And therefore, to what extent is this potential temporary surcharge dependent on continued strong macroeconomic environment? And the second question I have is, I I just wanna ask you directly, please, if if you’re willing to recognize the quantification that GE gave yesterday.
Do you think that, that €500,000,000 number that they communicated could be translated to your business? Thank you.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Jan, on your question relating to offset and potential impact on engine retirements, we don’t expect an impact on engine retirements today, we don’t expect that. As you know, today the situation is such that airlines are still starving from getting aircraft. And so this is a good situation for us because the demand for aircraft capacity is still higher than basically the supply and the ramp up of new aircraft. So we don’t see today, we don’t expect, let’s say, sort of acceleration of aircraft or engine retirement. But we are monitoring the situation, of course.
On your second question relating to the $500,000,000 that has been communicated by GE, no comment, I would say.
Pascal, CFO, Safran: Yes. What we can say, Jan, is that so far it’s a different business mix. We are not only in propulsion, but also in equipment, defense, interiors. We can have also different geographical flows with respect to supply chain or on the footprint. And when you look to what was communicated by GE and RTX, they are not comparable numbers because their underlying assumptions about what tariffs apply to these scenarios was different to my understanding.
So the $500,000,000 mentioned by GE and $850,000,000 mentioned by RTX do not use the same assumption with respect to what could be the country by country rate starting early July. So you see putting out a number is quite dangerous because people think about the number, but what were the underlying assumptions? Absolutely. So that’s why we believe it’s pointless to develop scenarios and quantify today that will be disproven the next day. So please don’t look at numbers in isolation.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: You always need to link the numbers that have been communicated by our peers with the underlying assumptions. This is critical.
Ian Douglas Pennant, Analyst, UBS: Thank you. Appreciate the insight.
Conference Moderator: Thank you. We’ll now take our next question. This is from the line of Milan Kerner from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Chloe Lemarie, Analyst, Jefferies: Yes. Good morning, Olivier, Pascal and Armel. Pascal, just coming back on your Slide seven, could you help us understand a little bit more the barrier option dynamic from your hedging strategy? And there is two to that question. Firstly, what happens to the size of your hedge book if the dollar is above $1.15 for the rest of the year as your knockout starts at 1.15?
And then secondly, what could be the targeted hedge rate for 25 in that scenario? Thank you.
Pascal, CFO, Safran: Good morning, Milan. So I will enter a bit into technical details. We have indeed in part of the options in our portfolio what we call knocked out barriers. But there are different kinds of KO barriers. Some are called American KO, meaning that for an option to be deactivated, it could happen at any time between now and the expiration of a given option.
Then we have other options with European KO barriers, meaning that we will only look at the options the day it expires. So for example, if you have an option expiring, I don’t know, in September, it’s only in September that we will look if the same day the spot rate is above or not the KO barrier. And then we have some other options with window KO barriers, meaning that even if an option is expiring, let’s say in December, we will only look in a given period of time, let’s say, September, October, if the spot rate is above the k o. So there are variety of options inside our book. So even if, you know, the spot rate goes beyond one fifteen, one 15, or one seventeen, it’s not a given that options will be deactivated.
It depends on the mix of American chaos, European chaos, or window chaos, Paris. So sorry to enter these details. So what the trading floor is doing now is to remove the American chaos options in our portfolio. So what we do is to extend the lifetime of these options in order to translate the American KO barrier into European or window barriers, so in order to avoid any deactivation. And as an evidence of that, last Monday, spot rate went above one fifteen.
It did reach one fifteen eighty, and we had no option deactivated in our portfolio. So we try to manage our portfolio in a very proactive manner. Then regarding 2025, there is no risk at all to be away from the $1.12 per euro hedge rate because this is already firm in our our book. So the only risk we carry should the spot goes to 01/20, ’1 ’20 ’5 or 01/30 is to maybe change our long term guidance for the edge rate in 2028 or 2029. But we are far from that and we do anything we can to avoid that.
And again, as an evidence as well, back in 2018, ’20 ’19, we had part of our portfolio being deactivated at that time because there was a lot of fluctuation in for hedge book, and we have maintained our guidance each and every year on the hedge rate. So there is no immediate threat. We are monitoring very closely and actively our portfolio.
Chloe Lemarie, Analyst, Jefferies: Thank you, Pascal. Very clear even if it’s not a clear subject.
Conference Moderator: Thank you. We’ll now take our next question. This is from David Perry from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
David Perry, Analyst, JPMorgan: Yes. Hi, Olivier and Pascal. Hope you’re So, I’m just gonna ask Melen’s question again to be a bit annoying. I don’t understand derivatives. Far too complicated for me.
Are you essentially saying whatever the FX rate is, you are guaranteed to get the one twelve for 25, 20 6, 20 7? Because that seemed to be what you’re saying, which
Pascal, CFO, Safran: Yeah.
David Perry, Analyst, JPMorgan: To me means you may as well not tell us there’s knockouts just without the explanation.
Pascal, CFO, Safran: The the answer is yes to to make it simple.
David Perry, Analyst, JPMorgan: Okay. And what I mean, but let’s okay. So what happens if we went to one thirty or one thirty five for argument’s sake in the next month because something terrible happened? You’re completely guaranteed 25, 20 six, 20 seven. But what would happen ’28, ’20 ’9 onwards?
Pascal, CFO, Safran: Yeah. And the average will go up for sure because all the new options that we will implement will take into account, you know, the new spot rates. Let’s assume it’s one thirty. So, with time, we will move away from the one twelve to a higher number. And you know that we have hedge book of more than $50,000,000,000, which more or less hedges our exposure for the next three to four years.
So it’s only in 2028 or 2029 that we will start to see a change in our one twelve hedge rates that we that we currently have in our book. So it will be only with time that we will see a change. So no panic for the next two, three years. It’s already in
David Perry, Analyst, JPMorgan: the book. So one more from me, on this. So let’s let’s imagine a scenario where you’re locked into one twelve for 25, 20 six, 20 seven, but you faced a cliff edge of one thirty, 20 eight, 20 nine. Wouldn’t you try and smooth it? Wouldn’t you try and restructure the whole book so it was a more phased impact rather than have a cliff edge?
Pascal, CFO, Safran: No. It won’t be a cliff edge. I mean, it will be phased. So, you know, I have not simulated it, but I would assume it could move from one twelve to one fifteen to you know, there would be steps of a couple of cents before we we go we converge to the spot rate. There is a lot of latency in our hedge book.
So there can be a cliff of, you know, $5.10 cents from one year to the other. This is all about our strategy to hedge three, four years in advance and with quite a complex strategy around options with barriers, KO, but also a knock in barriers. And we are used since fifteen years now to manage such kind of risk, which proves to bear the benefits when I compare to what our European peers do. I guess we can be proud of one twelve hedge rates, you know, for the next three, four years.
David Perry, Analyst, JPMorgan: So so last one on this, I promise. You’re saying the worst case scenario, even if spot was one thirty in the next month, is you stay at one twelve, 20 five, 20 six, 20 seven, but then you would progressively phase in whatever increments of $3.04, 5¢ from ’28, ’20 ’9 onwards. Is that what you’re saying in all scenarios?
Ian Douglas Pennant, Analyst, UBS: Yes. Correct.
Pascal, CFO, Safran: Yes. Correct, David.
David Perry, Analyst, JPMorgan: Okay. Thank you. And one more, please, maybe for Olivier. Can you just give us a bit more color on the LEAP deliveries? Obviously, a very weak start to the year.
It was somewhat expected. You need a big, big improvement to make the full year targets. Can you just give us an update on what’s going on in the supply chain there and how what the cadence will be and your confidence in hitting the target? Thank you.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Hello, David. Yes. We’ve seen a strong improvement on the supply chain side, especially on those items that were pacing our 24 deliveries. And so, basically, I can say now that we are rightly fed, in our assembly lines, to recover, the slow start of the year.
David Perry, Analyst, JPMorgan: Any any any additional color apart from just telling us it’s okay? Because, you know, it’s a massive issue. But
Pascal, CFO, Safran: No. So don’t don’t I have to say
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: I have to say that we, we also have, basically seen a strike, in our facility, in France for a few weeks. This is behind us now, but it has also slowed down a bit our deliveries in Q1. But this strike is now behind us.
David Perry, Analyst, JPMorgan: So then on your own supply
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: exceptional an exceptional an exceptional situation that occurred in in in March, and, basically, that has been part of the slow start.
David Perry, Analyst, JPMorgan: And in terms of the supply chain, you’re happy with all the performance there in The US and Europe on LEAP only?
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Yes. We’ve seen, let’s say, a recovery. And and so, again, it gives us confidence in our ability to meet our guidance for LEAP deliveries this year, 1515% to 20%.
David Perry, Analyst, JPMorgan: Thank you, David. Thank you.
Conference Moderator: Thank you. We’ll now take the next question. This is from Ken Herbert from RBC. Please go ahead.
Ken Herbert, Analyst, RBC: Yes. Hi. Good morning.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Good morning, Ken. Olivier or Pascal,
Ken Herbert, Analyst, RBC: for the spare parts sales in the quarter, can you talk about the mix of price versus volume in terms of driving the 25% growth? And as we look at the guidance range for spare parts, how do we think about the main driver of the increase in the guidance, whether it be pricing or or volume on spare parts?
Pascal, CFO, Safran: Okay. Now on spare parts, as you remind, it’s a combination of LEAP, CFM 56, and ISRS engines, typically the the g 90. So we we’ve seen different growth rates in in q one on these three categories of engine. The high performer was high thrust engines. Okay?
And it was a combination of price, volume, and heavier work scope. On CFM, it was slightly above what we expected driven by price and and volume. So typically volume because price was already as a consequence of what we did last August. So volume was slightly better than expected. And LEAP was performing, I would say, as expected.
So going forward, it’s it’s more a question of volume for for CFM 56, depending, obviously, on the indirect consequence we can have from tariff, and we’ve already discussed discussed that. But we are pretty confident that we will be now in the in the low teens. Remember that we have already upped our guidance back in February from what we’ve told you at the the CMD. So we will see we’ll see going forward. And then next August, we will pass again, you know, mid to high single digit gross pricing to to airlines.
This is, without the surcharge that may apply depending on the situation of tariff, but the usual price escalation of the capital of this price should be in the mid to high single digits.
Ken Herbert, Analyst, RBC: Okay. Very helpful. And just with some of the incremental cautious commentary from some airlines on capacity growth in the second half of this year in particular, have you seen any airlines look to defer shop visits on engines or push out or otherwise lower maintenance spending as a result of any of the potentially a slower capacity growth?
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Ken, we we’ve not seen that yet. We’ve not seen that yet. And remember, there has been comments on the fact that our revenue growth on spare parts was more constrained by some supply chain issues or, let’s say, MRO capacity issues. So we don’t expect, unless the context is changing radically, but we we don’t expect, let’s say, a slowdown, coming from lower demand for MRO coming from the airlines.
Ken Herbert, Analyst, RBC: Great. Thank you very much.
Conference Moderator: Thank you. We’ll now take our next question. This is from Robert Stallard from Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Robert Stallard, Analyst, Vertical Research: Thanks so much. Good morning.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Good morning. Good morning, Corbin.
Robert Stallard, Analyst, Vertical Research: Maybe just to follow-up on Ken’s question. We have seen US airlines in particular, seeing a slowdown in their domestic market, and, a couple of them talking about retiring some older aircraft. Does that flow through in any way to, the dollar value of shop visits they’re planning for the second half or starting to destock spares in any form or another? And then secondly, on the interiors business, you obviously saw a very big increase in business class seat revenues, in Q1. How are you managing the demand that’s coming from the OEMs versus the retrofit market?
Thank you.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Robert, on yeah. We we’ve we’ve seen the communication of some of The US airlines. And and once again, we we are monitoring the situation. But as we speak today, we we’ve not seen any signal of any decrease of of the dollar value of future shop visits. We have a a good visibility on what’s going to come in q two, and we’ve we don’t see any any impact there yet.
On interiors, you’re right. Basically, we have experienced a strong demand both on line fit aircraft and retrofit aircraft, And for sure, we have to manage that very carefully. And this is why we are now cautious. Okay. Cautious.
We are we are, yeah, taking into account our overall capacity, be it engineering capacity as well as manufacturing capacity for responding to any new request from airlines. So we have now a very,
Pascal, CFO, Safran: let’s say,
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: strict process to look whether we respond positively or negatively to any new demand for interiors because we don’t want to overcommit and under deliver.
Robert Stallard, Analyst, Vertical Research: Very much.
Chloe Lemarie, Analyst, Jefferies: Thank you.
Conference Moderator: As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one and one We will now take our next question. And this is from Olivier Brochet from Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.
Pascal, CFO, Safran0: Yes. Good morning, Olivier and Pascal. Thank you for taking my questions. I would have, like, three, if I may. The first one is on the HPT blade upgrade for the LEAP-1B.
Has anything changed there? The first question. The second one is on SPS. Any update on the situation on your side on that thing? And the third one is on the assembly of LEAP between The U.
S. And France. Is there any specificities in terms of variant? Or are you able to just manage that with indiscriminately? Thank you.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Hello, Olivier. HPT blade upgrade for the 1B is expected this year. As already communicated, it is already implemented on the LEAP-1A. So any new LEAP-1A delivered to either the airlines or Airbus add the new HPT blade. For the LEAP-1B, we are expecting the certification by the end of this year.
SPS, there’s there is an impact for us mainly on wheels and brakes. So we we are basically managing the situation, working on alternative for fasteners, nuts and bolts and so on. We, of course, our priority is to protect the assembly line of our airframe of customer. And so we don’t see an impact before, I would say, June or July as we speak, and we are working hard to push out such an impact. But we are going to protect.
This has been our this is our policy. We are going to protect the assembly line of our airframe of customers to the to the, would I say, to the expense of of temporary, to the expense of of MRO and aftermarket, temporarily. So so prioritization to the assembly line to avoid any impact to our customers.
Pascal, CFO, Safran: Okay. We’ll take maybe a
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: last Sorry. And your last question is on assembly. So, basically, the scheme today is the LEAP one a for Airbus and the LEAP one c for Comac are assembled in France, whilst the LEAP one b is mainly assembled in The US, but we are also assembling some of them in France in order to have a global equilibrium between GI Aerospace and Us. But we can have flexibility. I mean, we are able in France to assemble one a and one b, and g, aerospace could be easily also, able to assemble both one b and one a.
I hope it answers your question.
Pascal, CFO, Safran0: It does. Thank you very much.
Pascal, CFO, Safran: Thank you. We’ll take last question, if any.
Conference Moderator: Thank you. In fact, there are no further questions at this time. So I would hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Olivier, Executive (likely CEO), Safran: Okay. Thank you. So looking forward to getting together July. As we said, we are highly confident in the strength of our underlying business and reaching our guidance excluding tariff. And as we have discussed, we are monitoring very actively the situation on tariff.
And here as well, we are confident to manage adequately the situation. Thank you. Thank you.
Conference Moderator: Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.
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