TransMedics at Baird Global Healthcare Conference: Aiming for 30,000 Transplants

On Tuesday, 09 September 2025, TransMedics (NASDAQ:TMDX) presented at the Baird Global Healthcare Conference 2025, outlining an ambitious strategy to double its organ transplant targets by 2030. Despite anticipated seasonal fluctuations in Q3, the company remains optimistic about its year-end performance, driven by innovations in organ transportation and an expanding aviation network.

Key Takeaways

• TransMedics aims to achieve 20,000-30,000 transplants by 2030, having surpassed its initial target of 10,000.
• The company is developing a new OCS technology for kidney transplants, expected by early 2027.
• Ground transportation for organ delivery has increased to nearly 40% of missions, enhancing efficiency.
• TransMedics maintains a competitive edge with no price increases for the past seven years.
• International expansion is a strategic focus, with interest from Europe, the Middle East, and Australia.

Financial Results

• Exceeded internal target of 10,000 organs; aiming for 20,000-30,000 by 2030.
• Q3 expected to experience seasonal volatility, but strong year-end performance anticipated.
• Prices have remained stable for seven years, emphasizing cost-effective transplants.

Operational Updates

• Ground transportation now accounts for nearly 40% of total missions, reflecting improved organ preservation.
• Approximately 20% of aviation needs are outsourced, with plans for opportunistic jet acquisitions.
• OCS technology transforms procedures from emergent to semi-scheduled, allowing multiple daily transplants.

Future Outlook

• Developing kidney OCS technology, targeting early 2027 for clinical implementation.
• Heart and lung trials projected to drive growth in 2026.
• Liver market penetration at 40-45%, with room for expansion.

Q&A Highlights

• Addressed Q3 seasonality concerns, emphasizing a transient impact.
• Highlighted shift to ground transportation for greater efficiency.
• Viewed Terumo’s acquisition of Organox positively, reinforcing the organ transplant market’s value.

For a detailed understanding, please refer to the full transcript below.

Full transcript - Baird Global Healthcare Conference 2025:

Patrick, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Hi, everybody. Welcome and thanks for joining. Welcome to the first day of the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference. So, very excitedly for important disclosures, morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. That’s very exciting.

And I’m very excited today to have TransMedics with Rob Welly, who is Founder and CEO and Vrado’s CFO here. So, really appreciate the time that’s coming. We were just saying how thematically appropriate having staying alive on the soundtrack was for an organ transplant company, so it kind works well. I guess, so maybe starting kind of big picture. It’s been a strong year.

There’s a lot in the pipeline. Sitting here today and you have that original target of 10,000 organs and how are you feeling about thousands of view, the world and where the business is today, just big picture? We feel great. We as far as we said a few weeks back, we are already past the 10,000 target internally. We’re already setting our eyes at 20,000, 30,000 transplants by 02/1930.

Yes, we feel great and we’re looking forward to just continuing to execute. If you think of the journey that you guys have been on, getting to where you are now, is there anything that sort of surprised you, any relative strength of liver versus heart or how the aviation network integration trend versus how you originally envisaged the business? Does it look today like you thought it would? It’s a very interesting question. From where we are as a leader in the market, from a market share, from an impact on organ transplant, it could not be more exactly the same as we envisioned.

However, the path to get there, we accelerated the NOP five years compared to what we originally planned. The vertical integration of aviation and logistics, again, we accelerated that quite a bit. So from an impact, it’s exactly what we envisioned. How we got there? We got there a lot quicker with NOP and the vertical integration than what than we originally planned.

Yes, makes sense. Q3 always has some seasonality associated with that, that’s just always how it is. And I’ll ask a sort of slightly new question. As you know, people sometimes track flights and that’s a dangerous thing to do. But there’s an argument out there that that’s been fairly soft.

On the other hand, it hasn’t escaped people’s notice that you made a fairly sizable investment in transmedic stock yourself very recently. How should we think about Q3 seasonality in the context of those things? That’s an excellent question. We’ve always said Q3 is transiently choppy, underscore the word transiently. We’re not concerned about it.

Obviously, the data is clear. Yes, we’re quarter to quarter, it appears that national transplant volume is down. But when you look at the first half of the year this year versus the first half of the year last year, we’re actually doing great nationally. So as we stated publicly, we expect seasonality in Q3. We expect that TransMedics will be impacted by that.

But we think this is a transient impact and that we will finish the year strong and we’re still focusing on executing the plan and the guidance as we outlined it at least as of today. We see where the quarter ends. There’s still several weeks to execute. Even trying to find Doxy Vacation at some stage, right? Exactly.

And as far as tracking the tail, it’s an interesting way for someone who doesn’t have much to do, but we are moving as more and more people getting comfortable with how long organs could stay in OCS. We shifted ground transportation from 20% or lower to now approaching 40% of the total NOP emission. So yes, it’s a secondary measure, but it doesn’t tell the full story. Also, we still have 20% of the aviation requirement done by third party. So again, I’m not saying Q3 is not going to be impacted.

I’m just saying that it is not the be all end all. It’s not the gold standard indication of how the business is doing. We still are a transplant company and that cases are the number one priority for us, not necessarily the logistics piece of it. How do you think about the it’s obviously very different from organs in totality, but the existing, let’s say, waitlist backlog, how do you want to can we get to a point where we make really meaningful progress pulling that back with DCD organs and DVD organs and just the whole infrastructure getting a lot better. Yes.

Patrick, we’re doing that today. We’ve been doing that for the last few years. We’ve seen many, many big institutions that wipe down the waitlist and they revisit again. As we’ve always said, it will happen. When we deliver more organs, the waitlist is a dynamic picture that gets replenished because the demand for organ transplant is not slowing down.

It’s growing. It’s just the waitlist is you do not want to give false hope to patients in need. So that weakness gets replenished as it gets depleted with additional organs. But we’re still early in the journey of really flexing the capabilities of OCS to deliver more organ transplants in The U. S.

And we’re now beginning to expand outside of The U. S. To do the same thing. To your point, how many of the missions end up being the NOP missions end up being sort of longer dated versus however you want to define it, but shorter distance in that way proportionally? I need to refresh my memory with the exact numbers, but we are we do both missions because it’s not just about how far the donor is anymore, it’s about how the OCS has transformed the timing of the surgical procedure.

So we get called for missions that the donor is an hour away and we get called for missions like this week, we got called for donors in Hawaii and Alaska for recipients in the East Coast. So I would say fifty-fifty, thing that is so transparent and so obvious that OCS now is transforming the timing of the surgical procedure from being a middle of the night emergent procedure to a more semi scheduled procedure in the morning hours. And that’s again, it’s early innings and it’s going to continue to grow and we’re hoping that we can bring that success that we’re experiencing in liver for heart and lung as well with our next generation clinical programs. This might be a sort of off the wall question, but the ability to have the surgery is just functionally a little bit more planned. There are other efficiencies for the hospital side that that enables like fast turnaround, kind of thing.

You know what mean? Of course, there’s several. Shifting organ transplantation to a morning procedure has huge impact on hospital financial resource management rather than paying double time or more in the middle of the night, they pay regular time. Two, it gives the hospital the ability to do more than one transplant a day, which used to be something unheard of because you’re doing it in the middle of the night and you can’t have the team working around the clock. Today we’re seeing our centers doing two, three, sometimes four for a large volume center and doing them between seven in the morning and seven at night.

That is huge, huge value. And that the hospital administrators are recognizing. It’s not just about work life balance of the clinical staff, It’s really about better quality of the surgical procedure and better financial management to the hospital. I mean, on the topic of financial management for you guys, as the ground missions proportionately have gone up a little bit because you have more flexibility on the organ transplantation time, How should we think about that capital investment spend the aviation network and the spend on that side?

Vrado, CFO, TransMedics: To get to our 10,000 transplant coal and beyond, we certainly will need an additional fleet. We are running our double shifting program where it’s going to help us to really right size the fleet. And based on that we’ll be opportunistic, right? I mean, if we see jets that are at the right price, we’ll move forward. Otherwise, we’ll hold on when we find the right opportunities.

But we will need to get more depth to get to the 10,000 and beyond.

Patrick, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: And I would just to build on what Farragua said, I don’t want the community to misunderstand what we’re saying. There will always be the majority of the audience will always be flying, especially with OCS because we can go further distance. But we just saw that interesting shift from 20% to 40% or near 40%. We wanted to highlight that, but the majority still is flying. And the more the OCS will take more of the lion’s share of the market, we will fly more as we continue to expand the outreach, the reach of transplant programs to reach donors and organs across the country and across the world.

There’s some areas of healthcare that I’ve seen over the years get maybe unfair, undue amounts of how to put it emotional political attention like nursing homes, dialysis and to some degree organ transplants, right? It just gets that extra focus because there’s an emotive quality associated with it. There’s been a few articles in the press not connected to you, but to the DCD area in general. How do you feel about that? Do you think that has any impact at all there or what should we think about when we read some of those articles?

Sure. Again, what we’re seeing in the press is really a poor reflection of what really happened in the field. These cases happened two years ago in the early days of implementing DCD donation. There’s a lot that we can talk about to improve, but these two cases are not really the be all, end all. We think that DCD donation is here to stay.

The community is sophisticated enough to understand that these were in the early days when these OPOs were just trying to implement DCD programs and with anything new, there’s always some missteps. So we’re not seeing a significant negative impact as we were afraid that it might result in because it’s old and now DCD is here to stay and it’s growing and you can see it in the national numbers. DCD is nearly 50% of the donors in The United States. So we hope that doesn’t change. So think there’s an adequate understanding of the system of the administration that those organs, which ended up mostly saving lives wouldn’t just not have been used before.

That well understood? I think it’s very well understood. And I think the specifically on the HRSA and CMS side, they definitely understand that. And what they’re trying to do is just to bring higher level of accountability that didn’t exist in the transplant system in The United States. And it’s something to be applauded, but we got to be careful not to throw the baby with the bathwater and make sure that yes, there are some areas of improvement, but our transplant system in The United States is one of the best in the world.

And that remains to be a fact. When you’re thinking about the industry, the capital industry as a whole, obviously, was a fairly big bit of news flow recently with Tremo coming in and buying one of your peers. What did you think when you first saw that news flow? What about what was the instinct of hearing on your end? Well, as I stated before, I mean, first, congratulations to the team from Organox and the team from Peromo in this great deal.

The three points that we thought about is, well, great, this proves that that space that was very not well understood in the early days of TransMedics. Now, we created a multibillion dollar global opportunity that Trumo and others are focusing on. Two, it proves how undervalued TransMedics stock is today and justifies the investments I made personally in the TransMedics stock. And three, it shows that transplant is living a period of renaissance. And again, it proves that we’re in the early innings of this.

This is really going to continue to grow and we are fully committed to continue to innovate and be on the front end of this and drive the field forward as the pioneers that invented that field from Holocaust. So we were very excited to see this. And again, we welcome Terumo to the field and it keeps us honest from a competitive dynamic standpoint and it will invest innovations into this field that we love. Still a lot of DCD organs end up not getting used. Does it help having another player actively pushing?

Because people always focus on the cannibalistic nature of the decision, but there’s also one growing market. How do you think about that into play? Yes, there’s a lot of DCBs that are not being used, but we’re not waiting for anybody to come in and allow them to be used. We’re not stopping guys. We are investing a lot to continue to innovate and we are going to be the company that delivers innovations to continue to grow organ transplants.

We’re not waiting for Taruno or anybody else to tell us how to do the things we developed to make them be interested in the field. But obviously, keeps us always on our toes and it’s a healthy competition and we love it. But we’re not waiting for another company to show us how to do it. We’re investing in our own programs to deliver more organ transplant, more DVD, better outcomes, more DCD organs and continue to innovate on that front. If I think about the one of things that distinguishes you one of the things is the aviation network and it’s been what eighteen months, two years since you really started that post.

Two years. Yes. Yes. I remember the first one. And how has that gone versus your expectations?

Also where are we on the journey? Because there’s definitely looks like scale network effect of number of aircraft and number of missions the liquidity of the capacity that you have. Like where are we at on that journey? We are I would say we’re in, I would say the early phases of that journey. We’re very excited that we finally have critical mass to be able to operate with a network effect in The United States.

Now as Faradu said, we are experimenting with double shifting the planes or portion of our planes to really maximize the utilization of our fixed assets before we invest in more fixed assets or more aircraft, which we know we have to do. The question is do we buy 10 more or five more? And the double shifting will give us the answer to that. What’s exciting about this is the success of the NOP logistics and NOP clinical services in The U. S.

Now is catalyzing a lot of international interest that was dormant for a long time thinking that TransMedics is only selling medical technology. Today, when we see the success of TransMedics that TransMedics achieving in The United States and the ability to manage turnkey service, we’re getting a lot of interest from international markets that wanting us to replicate that in their local geographies. I definitely want to touch on The U. S. In a second.

When we think of like missions in the middle of the night, think you’re always thinking about the surgeon and how difficult that is then. How easy is it to find and hire pilots? Because again, they’re also having to do on the one hand, they’re saving lives rather than flying billionaires around, which is kind of cool. But then it might also be the middle of night. How hard is that?

Listen, our pilots, we love our pilots. They’re very proud of their mission and mission of TransMedics. You can see them on LinkedIn. We were concerned about that dynamic. Today, we’re approaching close to 150 pilots and growing rapidly.

They’re very, very motivated by the mission and we can’t speak highly enough of our pilots. We know it’s not for everybody. We’ve been very transparent with our crew from day one when we made the acquisition of Summit that this is different than flying high network individuals. But to our pleasant surprise, the mission is resonating well with our pilots and we are not having knock on wood, we’re not having any issues retaining them. Also, are very competitive in our compensation package and I promise our crew that they will be one of the top because of the demand, they’re going to be one of the top compensated crew in the industry and we’re delivering on that promise.

Where are we at because obviously NOP not rolled out, it’s basically full coverage now. Where are we at in terms of the concept of pricing? I don’t mean the absolute price level, mean the distinguishing between service and products actually just becoming an end to end thing when the customers are really thinking about it as just I need more than this is just the price rather than distinguishing between OCS and NLP. I want to remind everyone that TransMedics is very unique in the fact that we have not increased our prices for the last seven years, really since before the FDA approval. We intentionally priced NOP service at a nominal price to what the value we’re delivering because we did not want that to be an impediment for adoption.

And we have to charge fairly and actually we are the most efficient pricing on logistics. So the total combination now we feel very strongly to my original statement a few calls back that we are delivering we believe wholeheartedly that we’re delivering the most cost effective transplants in the world because the technology cost has not grown by a dime. We’re delivering high, high value for fair pricing. The clinical service is appropriately priced and logistics is the most competitive pricing that we can do because we’re managing the network. I feel now it’s not an issue for the centers that are adopting NOP.

It’s just they’re ordering the service across all three levels. There’s no distinguish between, oh, I only want the clinical service, but not the logistics or not the logistics, the clinical service that obviously that won’t fly. Yes. So it will all combined anyway. Okay.

That makes sense. And we obviously we can also have Medicare works. We understand how that the mechanics there and the coverage, but the bit that we will get much less visibility on is the commercial side. How are most of those contracts typically structured mechanistically? And where is the pricing relative today for newer contracts versus Medicare?

Yes. I think for anyone who’s tracking organ transplant, as you know, you may know that transplant contract is one of the most coveted secrets in every major transplant institution. And every institution thinks that they have the most generous, most competitive contacts in the planet. That’s a fact. They think that way.

From our side, the only comforting comment that we can offer is we wouldn’t be here. We wouldn’t show the success and the adoption rates and the revenue growth that we have if the commercial payers don’t understand the value of OCS. And we started with this, if you remember, from the early days of NOP, we reached out to every commercial payer in The United States to make sure they understand what we’re doing, why we’re doing and a potential economic impact on their network and they all get it, including CMS by the way. CMS gets value in space and every interaction we have with the CMS team, they bring up when are you coming with the kidney. Kidney is very important for us.

There’s hundreds of billions of dollars being spent that we need to make sure that we get similar outcomes from OCS and the kidney that could change transform the financial profile of kidney transplant in The United States. So that gives us comfort and gives them confidence in what we’re doing. But we’re continuing to keep open dialogue, not just with payers, but also hospital administrators to make sure they understand the economic value. But they’re are clearly doing a great job reaching out to their third party commercial payers and the contracts are being appropriately scaled. Otherwise, we wouldn’t see the adoption and the scale of adoption that we’re seeing.

I’d love to pivot actually to some of the individual organs. Maybe starting with kidney. Kidney is obviously a little bit different because there’s a known donor component to kidney relative to, I’m assuming, liver one. And so how much of that market do you think is just site to site known donor versus like it’s going to have to be transported somewhere? And connected to kidney as well, President Trump had previously been a big supporter of increasing kidney donations on the record in his first term.

I covered the dials. That play into how successful do you think it will be to get more donor registry? So, kidney is a huge giant in organ transplant. It’s the largest transplant organ by volume. The living donor kidney program, which you’re focusing on, only represents about 20% of the total volume.

In The United States, there’s approximately 23,000 to 25,000 deceased donor kidneys being transplanted every year. Those are the ones that we’re targeting and that’s what gives us the focus on our kidney program to focus on those 20,000 to 25,000 deceased donors. Why are we doing a kidney program with OCS today? Because today, the kidneys have two major problems that are at all time high. The post transplant clinical outcomes are now approaching fifty percent to fifty five percent delayed graft function rate, which means the kidneys that aren’t transplanted are not functioning well and the patient is back on dialysis.

It’s costing significant amount of dollars and frankly comorbidities to the patients. Two, the kidney utilization is at all time low. We’re only utilizing kidneys at a rate of about sixty percent. When I started TransMedics, the kidney utilization was ninety percent. So we need newer technologies that can better protect kidneys to maximize utilization of kidney and reduce the post transplant, delayed graft function.

If we can achieve these two, there’s no doubt in my mind that we will be a gold standard for preserving kidneys in The United States and around the world. And that’s the target for the OCS kidney program. Guess dialysis is like 90,000 to $100,000 a year for a Medicare patient. So take on payback on having better transplants on that side. Okay.

Does that makes a ton of sense? When you’re thinking about kidney and the rollout, would there be incremental investment? Like is there anything different about that market that you would then have to do to activate it relative to what you’ve already done in lung and liver? Yes. It’s a much bigger market.

Yes, the technology will be completely different. In fact, we always said the kidney device will be the front edge of Gen three OCS technology and I’ll leave it at that because we haven’t talked about it publicly yet. And, we’re working very hard right now to finalize the design and get that kidney device ready for clinical implementation, by early twenty twenty seven. So 2026 is going to be a very busy year for our kidney team in TransMedics from a development standpoint. Maybe then pivoting in towards liver, obviously a critical, critical win for you guys.

How are you finding things? Have you seen anything from incremental competition? How is the base market looking? How do you feel about the liver franchise? We feel very good about the liver franchise.

I think the market perceives anything that moves and does anything in the kidney as the case of death for transplant franchise. Guys, we are the lion’s share of the kidney of the liver market in The United States, especially in DCD and the DVD segment is growing. Competition is competition. You need to remember that this competition existed in the market from day one when we started. The reason why we’re taking market share and maintaining market share is the outcomes.

If we don’t have better outcomes, we wouldn’t be here. Our rate of utilization is the highest reported in the entire history of liver transplant compared to the known competitors out there with their our rate is ninety seven point six percent. Their rate is somewhere between fifty percent and sixty five percent. Our rate of the most complicated, the most costly post liver transplant complication is two point one percent. Their rate is just announced at the WTC at fifteen percent, anywhere between ten percent and thirteen percent depending on the way they cut the data.

So yes, there are competitors, but they’re much inferior to the OCS with inferior outcomes and that’s why they’re priced at a lower price. So we’re not concerned about competition. We welcome competition, but our results speak for themselves. We’re not threatened by any competitor. Sometimes we actually encourage centers that they bring up the price and say, if I buy this X device, it’s 5,000 or $10,000 cheaper than OCS.

We say go, try it, experience the outcome, you will come back. And that’s exactly what happens. We need to be patient. We need to remember that we’re early in this. We’re only at 40%, 45% penetrated in the liver market.

We still have a long way to go and we’re growing the top line in that market. So we just need to be patient and stick to our knitting and continue to support our technology and continue to invest in innovation in that field because you said earlier, Patrick, we’re still losing 50% of the BCD livers today. We want to be the company and the technology that can improve that rate of BCD donation. That will add significant top line growth to the liver transplant market as well. Do you see a difference there?

Absolutely the same. I guess the with transplants as well, the netting of outcomes are much more visible for the surgeons and putting a TAVR valve in and fifteen years later it degrades. It’s more immediately discernible. So to a point around switching, they’re a little more sensitive maybe. Yes, that’s interesting.

You did also mention earlier OUS. And I know it’s less of a priority for frankly all of us for many reasons, at least for your market. But I’d love to hear like which markets you feel would be particularly suited and the national systems that have reached out to you to help? I will keep it high level. I think Europe is very important for us.

The Middle East is very important for us. Australia is very important for us and I’ll leave it at that. And stay tuned. We want OUS to be a meaningful enough revenue that this group here focuses on, but we still have some work to do. How much does geography matter?

I can’t imagine the policy could take a little from Switzerland to Germany. You know what I mean? Like the national borders, is it just like large landmass or are we just coming at it the wrong way and actually all these countries have DCD organs that need to be used and they’re not getting used? All of the above. Many of the countries except Germany have DCD organs, but we need to remember that they’re not using.

But we need to remember one important fact. European donors are a lot more challenging than U. S. Donors. The average donor age in Europe is at least ten years older.

The complication of the donor dynamic with the high rate of smoking and high rate of hypertension, it’s much more challenging donor environment. So utilization rate is lower, the post transplant outcomes are a lot worse than The United States and the management of transplant logistics is a lot more complicated because we don’t have the critical mass to manage this. I was just in Italy and meeting with the head of the equivalent of UNOS and he’s telling me, Omid, every organ for me is a national allocation. I need planes. I need a logistics network like the NOP you have in The United States because I’m losing organs every day because I don’t have access to transportation.

So TransMedics and NOP can help many of the European geographies. One point you mentioned, Patrick, which is the sharing of organs among member states or non member states, this is actually something that’s happening today. And if the OCS and NOP would to be active in Europe, that will increase sharing of organs across member states or non member states in Europe. It’s something that’s already happening because they want to maximize every organ to be transplanted because just the utilization rate is much lower than The U. S.

I’ve got a slightly hedge fund question for you guys including on the guide, which is basically you’ve obviously got the heart of lung trials that are ongoing. And the numbers aren’t small in terms of number of patients. How do we think about those volumes relative to your existing outlook and guide? Because are they incremental? Would they have been patients that you would have, to your mind, collected anyway?

Do you see what I mean? It’s not a small number of Yes. They’re not impacting the guide for this year. They’re impacting the growth for next year for sure. Just the timing is not going to really make any meaningful impact in 2025.

But yes, the numbers are large and they should impact growth for 2026. And no, we’re not cannibalizing our existing market because if you look at the two trials, the lung is a complete it’s literally, we’re resurrecting the lung completely. So every organ is an incremental organ. On the heart, the bulk of the heart trial is an indication that we currently do not have in The United States. So these are incremental organs.

I just want it on paper. I always ask everybody this, but I feel like especially for your company like the market focuses on very specific areas and very specific topics. I won’t ask what you think people focus on too much because I think I already know all the answers to that. But instead, it will be like what do you focus on and you’re surprised that other people don’t bring up? Do you mean like what doesn’t get the attention that you think is worth it?

I think listen, if you’re going to focus on every month to month liability, quarter to quarter variability in organ transplant, you should really you should not hold TransMedics stock. Seriously, it’s about looking at the long term. Look at TransMedics at 20,000 or 30,000 organs under our wing in The United States alone and doubling that worldwide. That’s what we’re building in TransMedics. And yes, there will be seasonality, there will be variabilities.

There is a reason why TransMedics doesn’t announce the full penetration except at year end, because we know there’s variability. We’ve said that from day one. That’s number one. Number two, we are still early. Yes, we’ve achieved significant success in a short period of time, but it’s still early.

We’ve got to allow the time for the health the transplant market to digest the level of innovation that TransMedics have injected into it in The U. S. And watch what the potential is for OUS. We’re very, very excited about where we are. And again, this is not just word-of-mouth.

My action my personal action in this quarter speaks for itself. And somebody asked me earlier today, Waleed, why now? Guys, I wanted to buy stock a lot earlier than now, but I was prohibited by corporate counsel because I made a 10b5-one transaction last October and I had to wait six months, otherwise I would trigger some bad things. Perfect, actually. Thank you so much for your time.

Vrado, CFO, TransMedics: Thank

Patrick, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: you. Appreciate it. Thank you.

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