Russia and Ukraine conflict likely to continue, says U.S. intelligence

Investing.com -- The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has been ongoing for three years, may continue as both nations appear to perceive the risks of a prolonged war as less than those of an unsatisfactory settlement, according to the latest unclassified assessment by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence. This assessment contradicts President Donald Trump’s promises of a swift resolution to the conflict.

Although both Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated a willingness to explore partial ceasefires, the assessment suggests that current leadership likely views a drawn-out conflict as a lesser evil than an unsatisfactory peace agreement. This assessment was released on Tuesday and is set to be presented at the Senate Intelligence Committee’s hearing on the annual Worldwide Threat report. High-ranking intelligence officials, including Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, are expected to testify at the hearing.

The Trump administration has been actively urging both nations to halt the fighting and is reportedly aiming to establish a ceasefire by April 20. However, this timeline is considered overly ambitious by Ukrainian and European officials, particularly in light of actions by Russian President Vladimir Putin that seem to be aimed at extending the negotiations.

According to the annual assessment, Putin’s positive battlefield trends permit some strategic patience. For Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could lead to domestic backlash and future insecurity.

The assessment also notes that both Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy likely comprehend the risks of a prolonged war. A long-lasting conflict could negatively impact the Russian economy and risk escalating tensions with the West. For Ukraine, the future of Western assistance remains uncertain.

The report also highlights that Moscow maintains momentum on the battlefield as the ongoing war of attrition aligns with Russia’s military strengths. This could result in a gradual but steady decline of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any attempts by the U.S. or its allies to impose new and greater costs on Moscow.

The U.S. intelligence community also continues to express concerns over the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia. The report suggests that Russia’s inability to secure quick and decisive battlefield victories, combined with Ukrainian strikes within Russia, continue to raise concerns that Putin might resort to nuclear weapons.

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