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Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has upgraded Slovenia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to ’A+’ from ’A’ with a Stable outlook, citing strengthened credit fundamentals and continued government debt reduction.
The upgrade reflects Slovenia’s fiscal consolidation efforts that have led to a broadly balanced primary budget position. Government debt declined to 66.6% in 2024 from a peak of 80.2% of GDP in 2020, approaching pre-pandemic levels and narrowing the gap with the ’A’ median of 57.6%.
Fitch projects Slovenia’s debt will further decrease to 62.3% by 2027 and reach about 60% by 2029, representing one of the largest debt reductions among ’A’ rated peers since the pandemic. The country maintains substantial central government deposits of approximately 15% of GDP, among the highest of regional peers.
Slovenia’s fiscal performance in 2024 exceeded both Fitch’s forecast and government targets, achieving a primary surplus of 0.4% of GDP with an overall deficit of 0.9%. Despite GDP growth slowing in the first half of 2025, Fitch maintains its fiscal deficit projection for 2025 at 1.6% of GDP, below the ’A’ median of 2.9%.
The rating agency noted progress on key reforms addressing aging-related pressures, including recently adopted pension reform aimed at stabilizing pension expenditure around 10% of GDP. A public-sector wage reform effective from 2025 seeks to reduce disparities and clarify indexation.
Slovenia’s economy has demonstrated resilience to external shocks, with real GDP 10.4% above pre-pandemic levels by the second quarter of 2025. The country has increased its global export market share while maintaining one of the EU’s lowest inflation rates, averaging 1.1% year-over-year in the second half of 2024 before rising moderately to 2.4% in January-August 2025.
Real GDP growth slowed to 0.1% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, down from 1.7% in 2024. Fitch forecasts growth of 0.9% in 2025, accelerating to 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, supported by rising real disposable income and solid investment.
Slovenia’s current account surplus was 4.4% of GDP in 2024 but narrowed to about 2% in the first half of 2025. The country shifted from a net external debtor position in 2012 to a net external creditor position of -13.9% of GDP in 2024, compared to the ’A’ median of -6.0%.
Fitch considers Slovenia’s political environment relatively stable, supporting medium-term fiscal planning and structural reforms. Parliamentary elections are expected in the first half of 2026, but Fitch sees low risk of a marked shift in macro-fiscal policy.
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