Bonds Analysis & Comment

Will the summer rally in bonds survive the autumn? Fresh doubts are bubbling as the market reconsiders a range of risk factors, including renewed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s commitment to...

Stocks were modestly lower, but there was a clear risk-off tone throughout the day as rates rose sharply, along with the dollar. The CDX high-yield credit spread index also moved higher. Despite the...

The case for international diversification from a US-investor perspective usually centers on how to carve up a global equities allocation. The global bond footprint, by contrast, tends to be an...

The market premium for the US 10-year yield over a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in September. The smaller spread extends a downside trend in recent...

There are no absolutes in economic forecasting. Thinking otherwise eventually leads to trouble. Case in point: the recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve...

The 10yr-2yr yield curve has un-inverted; yet in the media? Crickets Slowly I toined [cue Brooklyn accent], step by step… The 10yr-2yr yield curve un-inverted last week, turning from inversion to...

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this week. The question is whether the bond market has fully priced in the start of policy easing? It’s tempting to say “yes” after reviewing...

The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in July. The market rate is still well above the model’s estimate,...

Year-to-date returns for US fixed income are skewing positive this year ahead of the Federal Reserve policy announcement this afternoon. Although the central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged...

Eurozone data continues to challenge the European Central Bank, with German economic contraction and sticky CPI complicating matters. Meanwhile, the Germany 10-Year-United States 10-Year spread has...

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this...

A month ago it was reasonable to wonder if the worst was over for fixed-income securities writ large. Four weeks later, Treasury prices are slightly higher, but the debate continues as investors...

When stocks are in a bull market, we tend to see assets like growth stocks and junk bonds perform well as investors are in “risk-on” mode. And oftentimes, these are the assets to start...