Bonds Analysis & Comment

At a time of increased uncertainty about inflation, the relatively elevated real yields available in inflation-indexed Treasuries offer a partial antidote of certainty for anxious investors. Using...

Inflation concerns continue to lurk, but the US bond market is holding on to its rally so far this year, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (Feb. 19). The investment-grade benchmark for...

The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rebounded sharply in January, rising to its highest level in nine months, based on a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com....

Yields on most assets around the world have edged higher this year. The increase reflects a range of concerns, including sticky inflation risk and greater uncertainty for global trade flows. The...

Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US. We expect core PCE to annualize at or below 2% in H1 2025. Our Leading Inflation Indicator...

President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market, a relative calm prevails. This could change, of course, but...

We have repeated several times the importance and implications of rising/falling interest rates. And today we come back to this theme while discussing long-term US treasury bond yields. Above, we...

Is this the calm before the storm? Or has the danger passed? The bond market is focused on news and data in the days and weeks ahead that will provide context for answering these key questions....

Interest rates continue to dominate our recent research. And rightfully so. Big swings in interest rates have ramifications for the domestic and global economy. Whether it is falling bond...

In just 4 years, the trend (and investment theme) of low interest rates has been turned on its head. During this time, home and auto loan rates have gone from consumer-friendly to unfriendly. Quite...

Inflation risk is topical again, as I’ve been discussing this week. As a result, the bond market is demanding a higher yield premium to compensate for the possibility that inflation will be higher...

The backup in bond yields since mid-September did not surprise us. But it has surprised lots of other financial pundits, who are warning that this could be bad news for stocks. It could be,...

The risk of reflation has been bubbling for several months and yesterday’s economic news on prices in the services sector fueled new concerns. The bond market is paying attention, or so the renewed...

The question asked of us most often recently: “Why are bond yields rising?” After verbally answering it plenty of times, it’s time to put our answer in writing for everyone to see. The answer will...