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By Benjamin Schroeder The 10-Year UST yield is closing in on the 4% mark as if a weak jobs report tomorrow was a given. But underlying is also a further slide of inflation expectations. The front end...
By Benjamin Schroeder The fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless...
By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic Garvey Financial conditions eased markedly through November, as market rates fell and credit spreads tightened (record month for bond returns). The recessionary...
Investors are increasing their collective bets that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates – a bet that went into overdrive this week and ignited the strongest rally in bonds in 40...
By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic Garvey The rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today's eurozone release, but finally seemed to pause after more...
By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin Schroeder Rates continue to push lower after a soft 7-year US Treasury auction as Federal Reserve officials offer little pushback against the market's pricing of rate...
By Benjamin Schroeder Markets are clearly eyeing the turn of the rate cycle, but amid central banks’ 'high for longer' messaging and data releases, volatility remains elevated. Add to that the...
By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic Garvey While the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...
By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin Schroeder How convinced are we that the Fed has peaked? You can never be 100% sure on this, but the odds firmly favor the view that they’re done. That places...
Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Monday, Nov. 13. The average yield for global risk assets ticked up to...
By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic Garvey The tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide...
By Padhraic Garvey The US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...
By Padhraic Garvey As we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...
Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting. As noted earlier: “On Wednesday, Jerome...
By Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin SchroederThe Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening AcceleratingOverall, we have now seen a drop of close to 30bp in 10-Year and longer yields over...