Bonds Analysis & Comment

The previous article discussed the potential ramifications related to policy actions that China and Japan might take. These large U.S. Treasury bondholders could temporarily upset the Treasury market,...

“China, Japan, inflation, deficits, and QT, oh my!” – The chant of bond traders watching yields creep higher.Despite the highest yields in 15 years, some bearish bond traders think...

The last time you could lock in a real (inflation-adjusted) yield with inflation-adjusted Treasuries (TIPS), the world was still cleaning up the mess from the financial crisis. A lot has changed since...

Rising interest rates are beginning to spook investors. And rightfully so.It’s been the fastest rise in rates in decades. And just when we thought interest rates were easing, they pushed higher...

For much of the year, the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have peaked or were about to peak. The underlying logic centered on the...

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade at a level well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the gap suggests that further increases in the benchmark rate are facing...

Global bonds rocked by Bank of Japan changes, Fitch downgrade, and Fed's outlook. Long-term bond market sees rare turbulence. Investors split: Buffett and Musk optimistic, Ackman bearish. A triple...

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise,...

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak...

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different?Have the forty-year pre-pandemic...

The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by...

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months.This all comes after a...

I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had...