TSX up after index logs fresh record high close
Last Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll print was once again weak, and the narrative by which the labor market looks ’’balanced’’ on low demand and low supply is getting increasingly challenged.
The demand for labor isn’t just weak - it’s almost recessionary.
The chart below shows the 3-month average Non-Farm Payroll pace after the likely benchmark revisions we will get today (~60k/month jobs deducted for year until March 2025, and extrapolating such revisions to April-August 2025).
This metric is very clear: for the first time since 2010, the US has been likely producing negative job growth for consecutive prints now.
Tariffs are acting as a big tax on US consumers and companies.
And the demand for labor has rapidly weakened.
What should the Fed do here?
***
This article was originally published on The Macro Compass. Come join this vibrant community of macro investors, asset allocators and hedge funds - check out which subscription tier suits you the most using this link.