The Tariff discount is over - maybe it will reappear - but markets appear to think a return to punitive tariffs is over. We have the Nasdaq leading the way. For the Nasdaq, the rally off its low managed to slice through all major moving averages, with the next challenge its February high. Technicals are net positive and extremely strong, with volume surging in net accumulation.
The rally in the Russell 2000 stalled out at the March high, and below the 200-day MA. While the volume trend is positive, trading volume has returned to its pre-April panic level of capitulation. The index is underperforming relative to the Nasdaq, but it’s not a bad thing.
The S&P 500 made it past its March swing high, like the Nasdaq, but is underperforming the S&P 500. The buying volume is strong, and having managed a new swing high, I suggest any retest of the April swing low is highly unlikely. This leaves a break from the February high as the only next step.
Breadth metrics are more positive. The percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above their 50-day MA has surged well past highs of the last six months. Expectations would be for the parent index (Nasdaq) to do likewise, so this metric is very bullish.
It’s a similar story for the Nasdaq Summation Index and Bullish Percentages, both of which have broken their bearish trends.
The only one to slowly turn is the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 200-day MA. It reached March swing highs on net positive technicals, but still has a long way to go before challenging the January highs.
Markets are looking far more positive than they have in quite a while, even from before Trump’s announcement of his tariffs. Short term, things are looking a little too toasty, but any downside should be viewed as a buying opportunity.