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Nasdaq, S&P 500 Key Support Levels Under Threat as Semiconductors Undercut 200 DMA

Published 09/09/2024, 06:32
US500
0.27%
US2000
-0.45%
IWM
-0.30%
IXIC
0.62%
SOX
2.34%

If a precedent was set by Friday's undercut of the 200-day MA in Semiconductors, then it could be a rough few weeks ahead for indexes.

The loss of the 200-day MA after such a recent test was not surprising, but given technicals are net bearish and not oversold, then the likelihood of a further support loss of the 4,290 swing low has increased.SOX-Daily Chart

How losses in the Semiconductor Index are reflected in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the next couple of weeks remains to be seen, but a downward trend in Tech indexes has been established.

The mid-line of Stochastics was undercut by Friday's close, suggesting this is just the start of a decline, rather than the end of one.

Given the proximity of the last test of its 200-day MA, I would not look to the next test - if it was to occur in the coming weeks - as one likely to hold.

COMPQ-Daily Chart

The Russell 2000 (IWM) undercut converged 20-day and 50-day MAs on higher volume distribution as it makes its way to its 200-day MA. There is a little more for help for bulls with $200 support near its 200-day MA, before April swing lows come into play.

IWM-Daily Chart

The S&P 500 also undercut its 50-day MA on bearish technicals and higher volume distribution. Unlike other indexes, there is quite a bit of room to the next support level at 5,150 (also near the current 200-day MA), plus, Stochastics are sill in bullish territory. The index is outperforming peer indexes, so if there is an index to attract buyers, then this should be it.

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SPX-Daily Chart

Much will depend on how indexes react to losses in their moving averages this week. A quick reversal (before the week is out) would be very bullish, but if things drift, then it could be a long run out to the election and end-of-year.

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