In the US, permanent job losers are on the rise.
The most recent US non-farm payroll report showed the labor market didn’t fully crack under the uncertainty from tariffs.
Yet some fragilities are appearing under the surface.
For example, as the chart below shows: if you are unemployed in the US, it’s getting harder to find a job.
If you’ve been fired and couldn’t get a job for a while you are classified as ‘’permanent job loser’’ in the US.
And the share of permanent job losers as a % of the labor force has been steadily growing for months.
At 1.17%, the absolute number isn’t scary but the direction of travel isn’t positive.
Previous episodes where we were sub-1% and saw this number steadily increasing were recorded in early 2001 and in 2007.
Not exactly friendly macro periods.
Firms aren’t actively laying off much for the time being.
Yet the demand for labor has also materially slowed down.
Voluntary quits are low, as people are not optimistic about the job market.
And if you’re out of a job, it’s very hard to get a new one.
Do you think Trump is right in calling Powell ’’Mr. Too Late’’?
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