Yesterday, stocks finished lower as implied volatility surged ahead of Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) earnings. The VIX 1-day jumped to roughly 19.5, significantly higher than Tuesday’s level of 13. There’s not much more to add, except that volatility is likely to drop sharply today, potentially providing a slight morning boost to futures. However, I wouldn’t expect this to result in a significant market move.
I could see the index rising to or above the 5,920 level, given that we saw that sell-off into the close.
In terms of Nvidia, it was a messy quarter with plenty of “could-haves” and “would-haves.” Only in the stock market does one get rewarded for that, because in real life, when we say we could have done this or that, it’s usually because we didn’t, and the outcome wasn’t favorable.
If I could only sing, I would have been a rock star. If there were no export exemptions in China, we could have had more revenue in the second quarter.
The after-hours market is focusing on these hypothetical scenarios and what might have happened without restrictions. For now, the critical point is whether the bulls can hold the $140 level, which is the call wall. IV will undoubtedly drop significantly tomorrow, causing many calls to lose considerable value.
I’m not sure if the stock will hold above $140, as it’s currently trading at around $140.50. If it breaks below $140, we’re likely looking at a potential decline below $130. Unfortunately, we might not have clarity on this until today’s close.
There is a sizable gap to fill at $131, and below that, there is essentially no support until you reach the gap at $116. So in my view, $140 is of the utmost importance. Nobody is suggesting that anything happens in a straight line or all at once, but rather a destination over time.
More importantly, at this point, the results probably don’t change any of the main themes in the market that I have been focusing on.
Finally, I don’t think President Trump is a fan of TACO Tuesday, now that he knows investors are laughing at Trump Always Chickens Out.
We will see what happens today.