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EUR/USD edges lower amid trade deal reports & ahead of the ECB rate decision. FTSE hits a record high. EUR/USD is edging modestly lower after three days of gains amid optimism that the European...
We expect a hold by the ECB on Thursday, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength. Ultimately, Fed decisions will drive EUR/USD more than...
US Dollar holds steady near 98.4 as markets weigh tariffs, Fed policy, and politics. Resistance at 98.35 limits upside; bond yields and Fed clarity needed for stronger rally. Political risk and...
Central banks just love to cut rates in gradual, 25 basis-point chunks, don't they? Nobody knows why. And frankly, it doesn’t always make much sense, writes James Smith. Should the ECB cut rates next...
With the June decision to cut the main policy interest rate to 2%, the ECB thought it was in a ‘good place’, hoping for some typical wait-and-see monetary policy over the coming months. We had also...
Yesterday’s US inflation failed to validate dovish bets on the Fed and triggered a bounce in the oversold US dollar. We see more room for hawkish repricing in the coming weeks, and accordingly,...
EUR/USD extends correction as Fed hawkish tone keeps dollar supported ahead of key CPI data. Traders await inflation prints to gauge likelihood of a September rate cut by the Fed. Eurozone inflation...
Are markets too confident in a September Fed rate cut? Yes. But are central banks too nervous about another inflation wave? Also, yes, argues James Smith. He’s got a bone to pick this week, as the...
A fifth straight decline in initial jobless claims places even more emphasis on Tuesday’s CPI data to vindicate markets' residual bets on a September Fed cut. The consensus view has now emerged: a...
The US dollar downtrend is pausing for breath. Fresh updates on US tariff levels are having a diminishing marginal impact on FX markets, and instead, macro factors are making a comeback. Here, we...
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