ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Some calm is returning to FX markets after another day of trade-driven volatility. The 90-day pause in the US-China trade war has allowed the US dollar to recoup some losses, although we doubt it...

Oil prices moved higher following a pause in tariffs by China and the US. However, supply dynamics are likely to continue to generate headwinds Energy – Tariff Pause Provides Short-Term...

Oil and metals prices rose after the US and China said they will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products, with the US reducing its levies on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China...

Markets are anxiously awaiting today’s update from Secretary Bessent on the content of initial US-China trade talks over the weekend. We think the market baseline is for tariffs to be cut to 60%, and...

Markets have welcomed the first US trade deal since Liberation Day, although the British-American agreement is hardly a game-changer for either of the two countries. The US dollar is benefiting from...

The US dollar started the day a little stronger after last night's FOMC meeting, which was read as an acknowledgement of the risk of stagflation (no early Fed cuts). Also, helping the dollar is the...

Another hold from the Federal Reserve with an acknowledgement that uncertainty has increased with more upside risk for both inflation and unemployment. This suggests little inclination to move until...

It was a sea of red across commodities as news that the Federal Reserve left US interest rates on hold, and signs it's likely to remain there, overcame enthusiasm about US-China trade talks Energy -...

One might have thought that news of formal trade talks between the US and China would have seen the US dollar bid better. In fact, the dollar is struggling to hold a 0.5% rally against the big...

Commodity markets are trading firmer amid news that US-China trade talks will kick off later this week. Energy: US-China Trade Talk Hopes Push Oil Higher News that the US and China will start trade...

The massive rally in the Taiwanese dollar over the past two sessions is raising concerns of US Dollar-rich Asian countries being the catalyst for the next broader USD decline. That may be premature,...

We expect today’s US payrolls to be at 110k, below the 138k consensus but, in our view, not low enough to trigger concerns about employment by either investors or the Fed. The dollar’s recovery trend...

US equities have now erased almost 90% of their losses seen in the aftermath of 'Liberation Day'. The mood music on trade has improved slightly, and a US-Ukraine minerals deal helps, too. The next...

Crude oil extended its fall in the early trading session today as broader market concerns have weighed on the complex, while the latest inventory numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API)...

Consensus has shifted to -0.1% QoQ annualised for today's 1Q US GDP print following a wider than expected trade deficit for March. Details of the report, especially on consumer spending, will be...

Oil prices extended their declines this morning on a clouding demand outlook amid ongoing US tariff uncertainties and OPEC+ plans to increase output. Energy – Oil Slides on Weakening Demand...