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Michael Ashton

www.enduringinvestments.com
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 8

What follows is a somewhat-edited version of Episode #50 of the Inflation Guy Podcast;Hello and welcome to Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy Podcast. I am Michael Ashton, the Inflation Guy, and...
I was going to write a technical column today about how the sensitivity of bonds (and consequently, lots of other asset prices) to interest rates increase as interest rates decline, and discuss the...
The Monetary Policy Revolution in 3 Charts
By Michael Ashton - Jan 18, 2023
Over the last few years, I’ve pointed out exhaustively how the current operating approach at the Fed towards monetary policy is distinctly different from past tightening cycles. In fact, it is...
There was nothing at all surprising about the Fed leaning against the exuberance of the market last week The Fed's target of a 2% inflation rate remains very far-fetched In the meantime, higher...
Core CPI is more likely to surprise to the upside than to the downside on Tuesday Still, save for an outlier inflation reading, the Fed will raise rates by 50bps on Wednesday The equity market is...
Weekly Inflation Outlook: Have We Seen the Peak?
By Michael Ashton - Dec 05, 2022
On Friday, investors freaked out a bit when the employment report showed not just a slightly-higher-than-expected growth in new jobs but also a significant miss to the high side on average hourly...
Last week, the Fed reported that the M2 money supply declined, slightly, again. The year-over-year rate of change is now down to a paltry 1.3%.Source: BloombergNot only that, but the...
Despite what you may have read last week, the downward surprise in inflation is not a sign that inflation is about to collapse, that the Fed has won, and that rates will soon be in full-throated...
The market has been pricing in a relatively rapid pivot by the Fed after this week’s expected 75bps hike However, given the persistency in inflation and the Fed’s firm stance, I believe a...
Bond market behavior last week was somewhat disturbing as 10-year nominal rates shot past 4% and 10-year real rates got as high as 1.75% before pulling back a trifle. This was despite Fed speakers...