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Michael Ashton

www.enduringinvestments.com
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 4

It was only a few months ago (with the March CPI report in April) that I was talking about a ‘Potential Pony Situation’ in my podcast when, after an unsettling Core CPI, I pointed out that the Median...
The Effect of Time on Trump’s Win Likelihood
By Michael Ashton - Aug 01, 2024
Not everybody is an options trader, but during an election year there is at least one binary option that most of us care quite a bit about and that’s the option on the US Presidency. There are ways...
In May, core CPI printed at +0.29% and +0.25% on Median. But a lot of that, most of it, was core goods and the question was whether that month was a one-off due to be reversed at some point, or if...
From time to time, you will read that the Federal Reserve is trying to “thread the needle” on rates. That is, they don’t want to keep rates too high for too long, lest they sink the economy, nor...
Inflation Deceleration Continues – But Not Enough
By Michael Ashton - Jun 18, 2024
Core and Median inflation continue to decline. This is not really a surprise; since early 2023 the clear direction has been to lower inflation. The debate has not been about whether inflation was...
The CPI report for May was definitely good news. In April, core CPI was +0.29% and Median CPI was +0.35%; this month those figures were +0.16% for core and +0.25% (est) for median. That would be the...
The CPI for April came in pretty close to expectations. CPI came in at 0.31% m/m, and 0.29% on core, versus a priori expectations for 0.37% and 0.30%. This relative accuracy does not necessarily mean...
You Cannot Inflate the Debt Away
By Michael Ashton - May 03, 2024
There is a popular meme that the government has an incentive to inflate, because the same debt is worth less in real terms at a higher price level. If inflation is high enough, then the government (it...
The bad news is that the contraction in the money supply appears to be over. That’s not bad news per se (see below), but it’s bad in that the anti-inflationary work that was happening is...
This is one of my favorites, and every few years I re-blog some portion of this article. The original, I wrote in 2010. The basic question is, what is the correct way to respond as an investor to...