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Michael Ashton

  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 2

A couple of weeks ago, I presented a blog post called “Trump Era Volatility: The Impact on Portfolio Allocations,” in which I pointed out that the effect of increasing volatility generally is to...
I am constantly amazed at certain articles of faith among the economics community. In my line of expertise, one of the most amazing to me is the absolute conviction with which the economics community...
We finished 2024 with a slightly soft reading, but we began 2025 with a hot reading. Now, my admonition last month about the volatility of December data applies also to January data, although less so...
I am continually fascinated by how many second-order ‘understandings’ are missed, even by those people who have a really good first-order understanding of finance. For example, every financial...
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, aka AOC, recently railed against the President when he threatened Colombia with tariffs if they should refuse to accept their citizens being deported back to...
The ever-increasing cost of homes obviously causes a lot of people a lot of angst. Chief among those groups, naturally, are the people who are planning to buy a home but do not yet have one; and,...
It is important – and I say it every year – to remember that when we are looking at economic data from December (and in many data series such as Employment, January as well) there are massive error...
There is so much to talk about, since it has been such a long time since I posted, that it is a little hard to know where to begin. So let’s begin 2025 with a few quick notes about inflation markets...
Last month’s CPI had set up an uncomfortable situation for the FOMC, where too-high inflation was colliding with a Fed that had launched too soon into ease mode – for what appears to be mostly...
I said two months ago that I didn’t think the Fed should ease, but they would anyway. And they did, by cutting overnight rates 50bps. Then last month I said: “Getting rates back to neutral, around...