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Michael Ashton

www.enduringinvestments.com
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 3

What Makes a Stablecoin Stable?
By Michael Ashton - Oct 31, 2024
The early growth of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency space was originally stimulated by the mistrust of centralized control of monetary policy and financial institutions. While Bitcoin is a fiat...
First, a review: last month, August’s report missed higher. But the miss was mostly due to the quirky jump in Owners’ Equivalent Rent. Outside of that, CPI had been okay – not great, but moving in...
Why Aren’t Home Prices Falling?  
By Michael Ashton - Sep 24, 2024
From time to time, I like to point out errors that we make because we think in nominal space, or because we had 25 years of inflation being so low that we didn’t have to think about it very much. I...
Let me start with the punch line, which I think will not be a very common take: this report does not stop the Fed from easing 50bps next week, and honestly doesn’t really even hurt the chances very...
Let me introduce you, for those who aren’t already acquainted, to the Unidad de Fomento. The Unidad de Fomento (UF) is an almost-unique currency in the world.[1] It was established in 1967 by Chile...
It was only a few months ago (with the March CPI report in April) that I was talking about a ‘Potential Pony Situation’ in my podcast when, after an unsettling Core CPI, I pointed out that the Median...
The Effect of Time on Trump’s Win Likelihood
By Michael Ashton - Aug 01, 2024
Not everybody is an options trader, but during an election year there is at least one binary option that most of us care quite a bit about and that’s the option on the US Presidency. There are ways...
In May, core CPI printed at +0.29% and +0.25% on Median. But a lot of that, most of it, was core goods and the question was whether that month was a one-off due to be reversed at some point, or if...
From time to time, you will read that the Federal Reserve is trying to “thread the needle” on rates. That is, they don’t want to keep rates too high for too long, lest they sink the economy, nor...
Inflation Deceleration Continues – But Not Enough
By Michael Ashton - Jun 18, 2024
Core and Median inflation continue to decline. This is not really a surprise; since early 2023 the clear direction has been to lower inflation. The debate has not been about whether inflation was...