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Michael Ashton

www.enduringinvestments.com
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 6

I am a risk manager, both literally and figuratively. Literally, since whether it is with our own funds and strategies or allocations for individual investor clients, or with my trading book back when...
I’m changing the way I do the monthly CPI analysis. Doing it live for an audience was always stressful, especially with the inevitable data issues from time to time.Of course, as an inflation...
Late last year, I was asked on a podcast what one fear I had for 2023 that was out-of-consensus and not expected by markets, but a non-zero probability which if it came to pass would have a huge...
The bungee jumper doesn’t just bounce once.Stated in a more high-falutin’ way, perturbed systems normally don’t converge straight back to equilibrium. Obviously, the 2020-2021...
Where Inflation Stands in the Cycle
By Michael Ashton - Nov 08, 2023
It’s important, I think, that I occasionally remind readers of a fact that is supported by overwhelming quantitative evidence, and yet virtually ignored by a wide majority of economists (and...
Now that we have our first estimate of GDP for Q3, we also have our first estimate of M2 velocity for the third quarter. Because there is an amazing amount of uninformed hypothesis out there, I...
Two weeks ago I pointed out one of the effects of higher interest rates is that leveraged return strategies get swiftly worse as rates rise. Today, I want to talk about another result of higher...
What Happens if CPI Isn’t Released?
By Michael Ashton - Sep 27, 2023
One thing I’ve stopped worrying very much about is a government shutdown. It could even be a good thing, given the bloated deficit, except for the fact that the government basically keeps...
One of the biggest stories of the past week has been the synchronized strike by the United Auto Workers (UAW) against the Big Three auto makers in Detroit. Although so far only 13,000 workers out of...
A couple of months ago, in this article, I argued that one characteristic of higher-inflation environments is that the volatility of inflation numbers is also high.While it does not automatically...