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Michael Ashton

www.enduringinvestments.com
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 5

Recession for Me But Not for Thee?
By Michael Ashton - Mar 06, 2024
In late 2022, I often said that while I didn’t think it would be severe I figured we would have a recession in 2023 because we had never seen an energy spike at the same time that the Fed was...
So, we are back to the argument about whether we have reached a new era of permanently higher growth and earnings, and because of productivity also a permanent state of steady disinflationary...
This is the reason that serious people don’t choose a trend length that happens to fit with their narrative.For the last few months, supposedly serious economists have crowed about how the...
Here's Why TIPS Deserve a Place in Your Portfolio
By Michael Ashton - Feb 08, 2024
It is interesting to me that, with as important and liquid as the inflation-linked bond market is, the tactical allocation between TIPS and nominal bonds is at best an afterthought for most...
One of the successes the Federal Reserve can tout from the last couple of years (and the list of them is pretty short, to be fair) is that after the unprecedented policy actions during COVID caused...
I am a risk manager, both literally and figuratively. Literally, since whether it is with our own funds and strategies or allocations for individual investor clients, or with my trading book back when...
I’m changing the way I do the monthly CPI analysis. Doing it live for an audience was always stressful, especially with the inevitable data issues from time to time.Of course, as an inflation...
Late last year, I was asked on a podcast what one fear I had for 2023 that was out-of-consensus and not expected by markets, but a non-zero probability which if it came to pass would have a huge...
The bungee jumper doesn’t just bounce once.Stated in a more high-falutin’ way, perturbed systems normally don’t converge straight back to equilibrium. Obviously, the 2020-2021...
Where Inflation Stands in the Cycle
By Michael Ashton - Nov 08, 2023
It’s important, I think, that I occasionally remind readers of a fact that is supported by overwhelming quantitative evidence, and yet virtually ignored by a wide majority of economists (and...