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Michael Ashton

www.enduringinvestments.com
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 7

Today we are going to geek out on inflation derivatives a little more. Since early 2022, just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 10y US CPI swaps have fallen from about 3.15% to around 2.50% (see...
Don't Bet Against Inflation Yet
By Michael Ashton - Jun 01, 2023
I am not the first person to point out that the stock market, at outlandish multiples, is not behaving consistently with commodities markets that are flashing imminent depression. If we insist on...
Food Inflation Served Hot and Cold
By Michael Ashton - May 04, 2023
Well, the Fed is done raising interest rates. They aren’t quite done tightening yet, because the Federal Reserve is going to continue to shrink its balance sheet slowly. That’s...
So, I suppose the good news is that policymakers have stopped pretending that prices will go back down to the pre-pandemic levels. My friend Andy Fately (@fx_poet) in his daily note today called to...
Who’s Afraid of De-Dollarization?
By Michael Ashton - Apr 20, 2023
Do we need to worry about the end of the US dollar dominance in international trade – the de-dollarization of global finance?There is widespread discussion and concern in some quarters as China...
The Phillips Curve Is Still Working Just Fine
By Michael Ashton - Apr 06, 2023
I must say that it is discouraging how often I have to write about the Phillips Curve.The Phillips Curve is a very simple idea and a very powerful model. It simply says that when labor is in short...
Homes Have Gotten Cheaper by Running in Place
By Michael Ashton - Mar 22, 2023
As the Fed started lifting interest rates aggressively in early 2022, pundits almost universally declared the end of the housing market. Taking the rather lazy approach of projecting what happened in...
The Powell of Positive Thinking
By Michael Ashton - Mar 08, 2023
Yes, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was very hawkish in his Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. He clearly signaled (again) that once Fed overnight policy rates reach a peak, they...
Over the last couple of decades, the assumption that inflation is mean-reverting to something approximating the Fed’s target level (or to where inflation expectations are supposedly –...
We Are All Bond Traders Now
By Michael Ashton - Feb 06, 2023
When I started working in the financial markets, bond traders were the cool kids. The equity guys drove Maseratis and acted like buffoons, but the bond guys drove sensible style like Mercedes and...