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Michael Ashton

www.enduringinvestments.com
  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 7

Three Pertinent Inflation Observations
By Michael Ashton - Aug 24, 2023
I have three items to discuss in this week’s post.The first item is an announcement made by the BLS on Tuesday regarding upcoming changes to how the CPI for Health Insurance will be...
It’s ironic that I had planned this column a couple of days ago and started writing it yesterday because the very concerns I talk about below are behind the overnight news that Fitch is lowering...
How the Fed Saved Structured Note Issuance
By Michael Ashton - Jul 25, 2023
There’s an aspect of the higher interest rate structure we are now blessed/cursed with that hasn’t gotten as much airplay, but which is great news for dealer desks and also a good thing...
In the course of this inflation cycle – and I do think this is a cycle, and not necessarily a one-off, although the subsequent peaks may not surpass this year’s peak in Median CPI for some...
High Interest Rates Won't Solve Inflation Conundrum
By Michael Ashton - Jun 22, 2023
One of the things which alternately frustrates and fascinates me is the mythology surrounding the idea that the central bank can address inflation by manipulating the price of money, even if it...
Today we are going to geek out on inflation derivatives a little more. Since early 2022, just after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 10y US CPI swaps have fallen from about 3.15% to around 2.50% (see...
Don't Bet Against Inflation Yet
By Michael Ashton - Jun 01, 2023
I am not the first person to point out that the stock market, at outlandish multiples, is not behaving consistently with commodities markets that are flashing imminent depression. If we insist on...
Food Inflation Served Hot and Cold
By Michael Ashton - May 04, 2023
Well, the Fed is done raising interest rates. They aren’t quite done tightening yet, because the Federal Reserve is going to continue to shrink its balance sheet slowly. That’s...
So, I suppose the good news is that policymakers have stopped pretending that prices will go back down to the pre-pandemic levels. My friend Andy Fately (@fx_poet) in his daily note today called to...
Who’s Afraid of De-Dollarization?
By Michael Ashton - Apr 20, 2023
Do we need to worry about the end of the US dollar dominance in international trade – the de-dollarization of global finance?There is widespread discussion and concern in some quarters as China...