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Michael Ashton

  • Analysis & Comment

Michael Ashton's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Ashton's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 9

Another week, another upside surprise on an inflation indicator. Core CPI reached a fresh y/y high for the move, marking at least the third time we’ve been expecting the peak to be in—and,...
Last week, I reminded readers that high-inflation environments are associated with lower equity multiples, all else being equal, and that that phenomenon has been true for more than a hundred years....
Stepping into the spooky month (from a historical market perspective, of course) of October, we need to take administrative notice of the fact that the S&P 500 has fallen more than 8% in three of...
This week, we will again get several opportunities to reconsider the received wisdom that when mortgage rates rise, home prices must fall. Last week, median home prices in the Existing Home Sales...
This week we will again get several opportunities to reconsider the received wisdom that when mortgage rates rise, home prices must fall. Last week, median home prices in the existing home sales...
Weekly Inflation Outlook: Hold Your Horses
By Michael Ashton - Sep 12, 2022
Everyone take a deep breath. It isn’t quite time for a victory lap yet.This week, we get the latest installment of the CPI report. Judging from market commentary and pricing, here is what...
More inflation means more unionization. More unionization likely makes inflation stickier. Unemployment is likely to continue to rise; lower stonks ahead Today is Labor Day in the United States when...
Weekly Inflation Outlook: Until The Job Is Done
By Michael Ashton - Aug 29, 2022
Powell’s speech led to a sharp decline in markets Fed Chair seems to suggest that Fed still using ‘anchored inflation expectations’ Shrinking balance sheet is needed but market...
High and still-rising core inflation across developed countries Focus on Jackson Hole meeting starting Thursday Fed has not been challenged yet, but eventual crisis is likely Against that backdrop,...
Weekly Inflation Outlook: Bean Loaf Ahead?
By Michael Ashton - Aug 15, 2022
CPI report was a positive surprise, but Median CPI rose at a 6.3% Surprise caused by large moves in small ‘tail’ items rather than a broad lessening of pressures More stories about how...