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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 3

QE Doesn’t Cause Inflation—Here’s What Really Does
By Alfonso Peccatiello - May 13, 2025
Universities and mainstream economic courses teach us that governments need money to fund their spending, Central Banks have the authority to print money we use, and commercial banks lend and...
Trump's Next Move May Shock Negative Carry Trades
By Alfonso Peccatiello - May 12, 2025
Trump caves in and slashes tariffs on China back to 30%. In his negotiation approach, Trump tends to follow a very volatile yet relatively consistent strategy.My friend Marko Papic created this...
Bond Market investors are bumping up the odds of a US recession.Everyone can see the bond market is throwing a tantrum: front-end yields have rapidly declined signaling nervousness about the state of...
If long-end bond yields spiral out of control, the Fed could start injecting liquidity again: a step-by-step guide of how it works. When a few weeks ago 30-year bond yields briefly flirted with the...
Hear, hear: the US Dollar is going down. Investors love to attach an ex-post narrative to any price action, and this time the blame was on Trump’s erratic policies, the reduced attractiveness of US...
It's time to talk about Bond Vigilantes. How Does a Proper Bond Vigilantes Trade Work? Contrary to popular belief, a true bond vigilantes trade doesn't only require bond yields to go up. Bond yields...
Last week, heavily leveraged bond trades were unwound in a spectacular fashion.And while the worst might be behind for now, I don’t see a structural fix to this bond market imbalance.There are two...
’There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen’’ – Vladimir Lenin. Markets were sleepwalking into April 2nd before we had a decent sell-off in US stock markets...
The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like...
Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US. We expect core PCE to annualize at or below 2% in H1 2025. Our Leading Inflation Indicator...