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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 6

Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US. We expect core PCE to annualize at or below 2% in H1 2025. Our Leading Inflation Indicator...
How to Prepare for Tariff Day
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jan 20, 2025
This week will be crucial for markets as Trump is set to announce (or disappointingly not announce) tariffs. In this piece, I will highlight the rationale behind my base case scenario and its impact...
What to Buy for a Macro Portfolio in 2025
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jan 11, 2025
A deep look at tariffs and the most attractive macro asset classes to kickstart 2025. What if tariffs end up being non-inflationary and negative for growth? And what if Trump focuses on short-term...
Have We Seen Peak 'Trump Trade' Already?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Dec 01, 2024
Trump is back slashing (or should we say: threatening) tariffs left, right and center. The more gradual approach suggested by his inner circle is nowhere to be seen. It seems like this Trump...
Term Premium Is Back - So Are the Bond Vigilantes?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Nov 10, 2024
The Bond Market is saying “This Time is Different”. The Term Premium is on the rise, and it now sits close to the highest level for the last 10 years. But What is Term Premium? An investor looking...
Macro clouds remain on the horizon. Wherever you look at, you see unsustainable economic models: we are either relying on debt-fueled growth (US), trying to squeeze exhausted growth models (China),...
The Chinese real estate market is de-leveraging very hard. Economists estimate Chinese households have suffered $10+ trillion of wealth losses as a result. There is now a strong urge to stop the...
The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on. The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within. And we should pay...
The Fed Is Behind the Curve and Playing With Fire
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Sep 10, 2024
We are observing a true regime change in markets. And for macro investors, it’s incredibly important to stay vigilant and on top of our game at this stage. It all starts with this: the Fed is behind...
When markets are calm (read: boring), it’s easier to take a step back from the daily noise and ask ourselves the big picture questions like Yes, but what’s the Macro EndGame? It often feels like the...