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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 6

The Chinese real estate market is de-leveraging very hard. Economists estimate Chinese households have suffered $10+ trillion of wealth losses as a result. There is now a strong urge to stop the...
The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on. The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within. And we should pay...
The Fed Is Behind the Curve and Playing With Fire
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Sep 10, 2024
We are observing a true regime change in markets. And for macro investors, it’s incredibly important to stay vigilant and on top of our game at this stage. It all starts with this: the Fed is behind...
When markets are calm (read: boring), it’s easier to take a step back from the daily noise and ask ourselves the big picture questions like Yes, but what’s the Macro EndGame? It often feels like the...
The Fed hiked rates above 5%, and yet the US economy didn't break. Back in 2022 already, the yield curve inverted and it has stayed inverted ever since. The lags looked relatively short, and the US...
Yield Curve Patterns: Is a Recession Around the Corner?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - May 10, 2024
When the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry.But it’s when a recession hits, the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens that you become s**t scared. Yield curve dynamics...
Last week was big for macro and markets.Today’s piece is going to cover: The Fed’s dovish announcement: a sizeable tapering of their Quantitative Tightening program; A potential upcoming...
Here is a trillion (dollar) reasons why the US economy is likely to hold up until elections: between now and then, Yellen is likely to drain the Treasury General Account (TGA) and unleash a wave of...
If you have been around for the last 10 years as a global macro investor you have experienced a situation where the US stock market was pretty much the only game in town.Since 2010 US stock markets...
Beware: Animal Spirits Are Running Loose Again
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Mar 11, 2024
Animal spirits are running loose. Bitcoin just hit all-time highs; NFTs of penguins and monkeys selling for over $500k; Virtually bankrupt stocks like Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) rallying to the...