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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 4

The -80% NIIP: A Ticking Time Bomb for the US Dollar
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jun 18, 2025
Investors need to focus on this crucial macro indicator going forward. I am talking about the Net International Investment Position (NIIP).What is it, and why will it matter?The NIIP shows whether a...
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) recently passed the House, and it’s now awaiting Senate scrutiny. Most analyst coverage focused on the bill piling up further government spending on existing...
The Trump administration will soon unleash their real bazooka. This is the biggest move from the Trump administration, and almost nobody is talking about it. I am referring to banking...
The just-released US inflation report for May 2025 shows core CPI only increased by 0.13% MoM. The print was below all (!) the estimates presented by top economists surveyed by...
The just-released US inflation report for May 2025 shows core CPI only increased by 0.13% MoM.The print was below all (!) the estimates presented by top economists surveyed by Bloomberg.Importantly,...
In the US, permanent job losers are on the rise. The most recent US non-farm payroll report showed the labor market didn't fully crack under the uncertainty from tariffs. Yet some fragilities are...
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) recently passed the House, and it’s now awaiting Senate scrutiny. Most analyst coverage focused on the bill piling up further government spending on existing...
Could Whales Be Forced to Dump Trillions of US Dollars?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - May 26, 2025
Investors love to attach an ex-post narrative to any price action, and this time the blame was on Trump’s erratic policies, the reduced attractiveness of US assets, and ‘’China dumping’’. But there...
US 30-year yields are flirting with the 5.10% area. Even in Japan, 30-year yields have surpassed the 3% level.Bond markets are on fire again all around the world.Let’s make things clear: this is not...
Moody's Downgraded the US - Now What?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - May 20, 2025
On Friday, the credit agency Moody’s downgraded the US rating by one notch to Aa1 (equivalent to AA+). By now, you’ve probably read tens of opinion pieces arguing this is the beginning of the end,...