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Alfonso Peccatiello
Joined: Feb 17, 2019- Information
- Articles
- Analysis & Comment
Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 7
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 7
What's Behind the Surge in 30-Year Treasury Yields?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Sep 08, 2023
Over the last few weeks, bond markets have been on the move: 30-Year Treasury yields have rapidly surged from below 4% to almost 4.50% catching many by surprise.Yet understanding why and what drives...
U.S. Credit Rating Downgraded: How Will It Impact Your Investments?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Aug 02, 2023
Are we back in 2011 or what?After the US debt ceiling drama earlier this year, we just witnessed a rating agency downgrading the US exactly like in 2011 – back then S&P, this time...
Earnings Growth, Not Fed Policy, Drives Stock Market Returns
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jul 24, 2023
This is one of the most popular and yet misleading charts in macro.People like simple narratives: the Fed is ''pumping money'' into the ''system,'' and that's why equity markets go up.
That’s...
How Not to Suck at Trading
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jun 22, 2023
‘’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55 percent range.
That means you’re going to...
Fed Anticipating the Mother of All Soft Landings
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jun 15, 2023
Imagine you are about to pause a hiking cycle, and in the run-up to the event, you have stock markets pushing higher and animal spirits running loose: what do you do?You still deliver the pause you...
Macro Investors Must Prepare for Upcoming Disinflation
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jun 06, 2023
The pace of the upcoming disinflationary impulse is likely to surprise many: most of our TMC models and leading indicators confirm our call for US core CPI to be in the 3% area by December, and to...
U.S. Debt Ceiling Deal Nears: What's Next for Liquidity?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - May 30, 2023
Assuming no last-minute surprises, it seems like we might be getting a debt ceiling deal in the US, which means you should be prepared to get overwhelmed by financial commentators' takes about...
How Currency Fluctuations Affect Your Portfolio
By Alfonso Peccatiello - May 29, 2023
The FX market is one of the biggest and most liquid in the world.Fluctuations in currency valuations also greatly affect investors’ portfolios: for instance, a US investor buying Japanese...
Will the U.S. Default?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - May 23, 2023
The US is dangerously close to triggering its debt ceiling limit, yet markets seem very relaxed.The 2011 episode shows us how political incentive schemes can instead drag negotiations until the very...
Real Yields Are the Real Deal
By Alfonso Peccatiello - May 15, 2023
Our economic system is ultra-financialized and dependent on leverage.That’s why understanding the incentive scheme for investors and borrowers is an important step to piecing together the global...