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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 5

It's time to talk about Bond Vigilantes. How Does a Proper Bond Vigilantes Trade Work? Contrary to popular belief, a true bond vigilantes trade doesn't only require bond yields to go up. Bond yields...
Last week, heavily leveraged bond trades were unwound in a spectacular fashion.And while the worst might be behind for now, I don’t see a structural fix to this bond market imbalance.There are two...
’There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen’’ – Vladimir Lenin. Markets were sleepwalking into April 2nd before we had a decent sell-off in US stock markets...
The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like...
Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US. We expect core PCE to annualize at or below 2% in H1 2025. Our Leading Inflation Indicator...
How to Prepare for Tariff Day
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jan 20, 2025
This week will be crucial for markets as Trump is set to announce (or disappointingly not announce) tariffs. In this piece, I will highlight the rationale behind my base case scenario and its impact...
What to Buy for a Macro Portfolio in 2025
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jan 11, 2025
A deep look at tariffs and the most attractive macro asset classes to kickstart 2025. What if tariffs end up being non-inflationary and negative for growth? And what if Trump focuses on short-term...
Have We Seen Peak 'Trump Trade' Already?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Dec 01, 2024
Trump is back slashing (or should we say: threatening) tariffs left, right and center. The more gradual approach suggested by his inner circle is nowhere to be seen. It seems like this Trump...
Term Premium Is Back - So Are the Bond Vigilantes?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Nov 10, 2024
The Bond Market is saying “This Time is Different”. The Term Premium is on the rise, and it now sits close to the highest level for the last 10 years. But What is Term Premium? An investor looking...
Macro clouds remain on the horizon. Wherever you look at, you see unsustainable economic models: we are either relying on debt-fueled growth (US), trying to squeeze exhausted growth models (China),...