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Alfonso Peccatiello

Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 5

There have been some positive surprises in economic data recently, and markets are busy trying to digest what this means for the Fed. Terminal rates are now priced at over 5% in the US and around 4%...
Most macro commentary focuses on the US. But over the last few months, the real golden kid has been Europe.Recently, the euro has appreciated 10%+ against the US Dollar, macro data seems to suggest a...
There is a time to be long, a time to be short, and a time to go fishing.As inflation skyrocketed and the Fed turned hawkish, bonds were kryptonite for investors for most of 2022: it was time to be...
The YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd is back with a vengeance.Over the last month, we have seen nearly bankrupt companies rallying 100%+ in a single day, and companies reporting awful earnings staging...
Our base case remains negative EPS growth and a higher unemployment rate from May/June 2023.In other words: a recession. But what if we are wrong?Labor HoardingDuring the pandemic, companies...
Last week, FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) became the prevailing market narrative.As data seemed to further validate the soft landing narrative and central bankers became ‘’data...
The Fed intends to drain liquidity at a rapid pace in 2023.And while the pace might be more friendly for the next months, don't get distracted. Banks, the repo market, and Wall Street will soon start...
The soft landing crew is increasingly taking over. No, the bond market’s base case is not a recession - it’s immaculate disinflation. Getting this call right is crucial...
Have a look at the last US inflation report; Answer the big question: Powell pivoted in 2019, is he going for it again in 2023? Analyze what’s priced in for bonds and equity markets: a...
The two main forces driving global macro and markets are the rate of change of (nominal) growth and the monetary policy stanceReal-economy money creation and leading macro indicators inform us on the...