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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 8

After years of zero interest rates, such an abrupt tightening is bound to break something.The main questions are: what, when, and where does something break? When rates are low credit is cheap and so...
There is a rare and powerful trend occurring in bond markets.History shows that if left unchecked, it can cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy. Over the last 3 months, US bond...
The ECB hiked interest rates to 4% and I think they made a policy mistake.Lagarde keeps throwing fuel on the fire as the European economy is already feeling the tightening much harder and faster than...
What's Behind the Surge in 30-Year Treasury Yields?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Sep 08, 2023
Over the last few weeks, bond markets have been on the move: 30-Year Treasury yields have rapidly surged from below 4% to almost 4.50% catching many by surprise.Yet understanding why and what drives...
Are we back in 2011 or what?After the US debt ceiling drama earlier this year, we just witnessed a rating agency downgrading the US exactly like in 2011 – back then S&P, this time...
This is one of the most popular and yet misleading charts in macro.People like simple narratives: the Fed is ''pumping money'' into the ''system,'' and that's why equity markets go up. That’s...
How Not to Suck at Trading
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jun 22, 2023
‘’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55 percent range. That means you’re going to...
Fed Anticipating the Mother of All Soft Landings
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jun 15, 2023
Imagine you are about to pause a hiking cycle, and in the run-up to the event, you have stock markets pushing higher and animal spirits running loose: what do you do?You still deliver the pause you...
Macro Investors Must Prepare for Upcoming Disinflation
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jun 06, 2023
The pace of the upcoming disinflationary impulse is likely to surprise many: most of our TMC models and leading indicators confirm our call for US core CPI to be in the 3% area by December, and to...
U.S. Debt Ceiling Deal Nears: What's Next for Liquidity?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - May 30, 2023
Assuming no last-minute surprises, it seems like we might be getting a debt ceiling deal in the US, which means you should be prepared to get overwhelmed by financial commentators' takes about...