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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 8

The Fed has been running QT for a while and yet there is still abundant liquidity in the financial system.Fed’s bond holdings are down $1.3 trillion from their peak (due to QT), yet only half of...
Let me get straight to the point: our models show inflation is on its way to undershoot (!) Central Banks targets in 2024. Inflation is often a monetary phenomenon: print real-economy money too...
The Pivot Is Here - But It May Mean Less Than You Think
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Dec 14, 2023
We just got our January 2019 moment: the Powell dovish pivot is here.Contrary to popular belief, a dovish pivot doesn’t mean the Fed is already cutting rates. Instead, it means the necessary...
As macro investors, we are often inundated with flashy headlines, and recently Japan has been front and center.Yet with all this noise, it’s easy to miss the forest for the...
Who are the biggest whales in the bond market?If you go around and ask this question, most people would tell you that’s either the Fed or foreign Central Banks like the Bank of Japan or the...
Forget inflation predictably floating around 1.5% as in the last decade.Does this mean this paradigm shift will see inflation consistently print at 4% going forward? Not necessarily. But it sure means...
After years of zero interest rates, such an abrupt tightening is bound to break something.The main questions are: what, when, and where does something break? When rates are low credit is cheap and so...
There is a rare and powerful trend occurring in bond markets.History shows that if left unchecked, it can cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy. Over the last 3 months, US bond...
The ECB hiked interest rates to 4% and I think they made a policy mistake.Lagarde keeps throwing fuel on the fire as the European economy is already feeling the tightening much harder and faster than...
What's Behind the Surge in 30-Year Treasury Yields?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Sep 08, 2023
Over the last few weeks, bond markets have been on the move: 30-Year Treasury yields have rapidly surged from below 4% to almost 4.50% catching many by surprise.Yet understanding why and what drives...