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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 2

Macro (BCBA:BMAm) 101: What’s R*, the real equilibrium interest rate? When setting interest rates, Central Banks aim to achieve price stability (and in some cases also maximum employment like the...
This chart is insane. The amount of $ spent in data centers is now almost bigger than what the US spends in office construction. Just to give you a reference: in 2022, $ spent on office construction...
This is how the Treasury General Account (TGA) will soon impact liquidity. At the July QRA, the US announced its intention to replenish the Treasury General Account (TGA) up to $850 billion by the...
The US economy and markets might face a double negative whammy over the next 2 months: a large reduction of the fiscal impulse and the aggressive rebuild of the Treasury General Account (TGA).A...
Is a Warp-Speed ‘Run It Hot’ Policy Coming in 2026?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Aug 13, 2025
I believe the US economy might be entering a temporary slowdown (’’Run It Cold’’ now), which will allow the {{Fed}} to cut a few times right before the 2026 ’’Run...
Pay attention to what's about to happen in the US. The US is about to face a fiscal tightening over the next 3-4 months. Yes, you read it correctly: a fiscal tightening. How is this possible? The US...
Has Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Skewed Jobs Data?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Aug 04, 2025
President Donald Trump's immigration policies are starting to weigh on the US labor market. The recently released NFP numbers caught many by surprise: after revisions, the US is now adding only...
President Donald Trump just announced a deal with the EU. Trump and Von Der Leyen announced they reached a deal which will see the US impose 15% tariffs on EU exports including cars. Europe also...
US companies and consumers are paying for tariffs. Piper Sandler shared an excellent piece of research which shed light on a key macro question: who is paying for US tariffs so far? The US has been...
US stock markets have been such a bad investment lately (''What? Did Alf have a pizza indigestion?''). Not really, I am just looking at data. The chart below shows the relative performance of the...