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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 2

I think this is the most important macro chart in the world right now. The chart shows the 120-day rolling correlation between EUR and SPX. This is a key correlation for big asset allocators such as...
Almost nobody owns this asset class, which could produce strong returns. The chart below displays a study from Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) that looked at the actual allocation towards Emerging Market...
Let’s start this macro piece with a little game. Below you find two tables representing 3 consecutive prints of core CPI in the US including its subcomponents: core goods and core services (with a...
The -80% NIIP: A Ticking Time Bomb for the US Dollar
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jun 18, 2025
Investors need to focus on this crucial macro indicator going forward. I am talking about the Net International Investment Position (NIIP).What is it, and why will it matter?The NIIP shows whether a...
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) recently passed the House, and it’s now awaiting Senate scrutiny. Most analyst coverage focused on the bill piling up further government spending on existing...
The Trump administration will soon unleash their real bazooka. This is the biggest move from the Trump administration, and almost nobody is talking about it. I am referring to banking...
The just-released US inflation report for May 2025 shows core CPI only increased by 0.13% MoM. The print was below all (!) the estimates presented by top economists surveyed by...
The just-released US inflation report for May 2025 shows core CPI only increased by 0.13% MoM.The print was below all (!) the estimates presented by top economists surveyed by Bloomberg.Importantly,...
In the US, permanent job losers are on the rise. The most recent US non-farm payroll report showed the labor market didn't fully crack under the uncertainty from tariffs. Yet some fragilities are...
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) recently passed the House, and it’s now awaiting Senate scrutiny. Most analyst coverage focused on the bill piling up further government spending on existing...