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Alfonso Peccatiello

The Macro Compass
Joined: Feb 17, 2019
  • Analysis & Comment

Alfonso Peccatiello's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Alfonso Peccatiello's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 11

Contagion Risks: A Level-Headed Assessment
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Mar 14, 2023
If a couple of regional banks were so bad at managing their interest rate risk and deposit outflow risk to blow up in a few hours, how can we really be sure other banks won’t face similar...
Nope: It's Just a Lot of Noise
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Mar 01, 2023
There have been some positive surprises in economic data recently, and markets are busy trying to digest what this means for the Fed. Terminal rates are now priced at over 5% in the US and around 4%...
Most macro commentary focuses on the US. But over the last few months, the real golden kid has been Europe.Recently, the euro has appreciated 10%+ against the US Dollar, macro data seems to suggest a...
Is it Time to Buy Bonds?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Feb 22, 2023
There is a time to be long, a time to be short, and a time to go fishing.As inflation skyrocketed and the Fed turned hawkish, bonds were kryptonite for investors for most of 2022: it was time to be...
To YOLO or Not to YOLO?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Feb 17, 2023
The YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd is back with a vengeance.Over the last month, we have seen nearly bankrupt companies rallying 100%+ in a single day, and companies reporting awful earnings staging...
Our base case remains negative EPS growth and a higher unemployment rate from May/June 2023.In other words: a recession. But what if we are wrong?Labor HoardingDuring the pandemic, companies...
Can You Smell the FOMO?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Feb 07, 2023
Last week, FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) became the prevailing market narrative.As data seemed to further validate the soft landing narrative and central bankers became ‘’data...
The Fed intends to drain liquidity at a rapid pace in 2023.And while the pace might be more friendly for the next months, don't get distracted. Banks, the repo market, and Wall Street will soon start...
Recession or Soft Landing?
By Alfonso Peccatiello - Jan 23, 2023
The soft landing crew is increasingly taking over. No, the bond market’s base case is not a recession - it’s immaculate disinflation. Getting this call right is crucial...
Have a look at the last US inflation report; Answer the big question: Powell pivoted in 2019, is he going for it again in 2023? Analyze what’s priced in for bonds and equity markets: a...