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On Friday, Bernstein analysts adjusted their outlook on Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) shares, increasing the price target from $465.00 to $548.00, while maintaining a Market Perform rating. The upgrade follows Deere’s second-quarter earnings, which surpassed expectations in several key financial metrics.
The company’s earnings per share (EPS), net income, and Equipment Operations operating profit each beat expectations by 19%. Despite fiscal year guidance being in line to moderately reduced, Bernstein analysts pointed out that the implied second-half exit rate by segment indicates potential growth into 2026.
Analysts noted that new inventories are well-managed, with new inventories of >220 horsepower (HHP) tractors and combines in North America showing a significant year-over-year decrease, evidencing the effectiveness of Deere’s recent underproduction efforts. However, used inventories continue to pose a challenge, with an increase in late-model year tractors, although combine inventories have improved and are now below the 10-year average.
Management at Deere has effectively ring-fenced the impact of tariffs, sizing the fiscal year tariff impact at $500 million, with $100 million of that figure having been absorbed in the second quarter. The company’s actions to mitigate costs, qualify components under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and implement pricing actions are expected to help recover lost profits by around 2026. More than 75% of Deere’s exposure to Mexico has been mitigated through USMCA qualification, with the remainder expected to be addressed by the end of the fiscal year.
Lastly, the second-half guidance from Deere suggests weaker than normal decremental margins, which could be interpreted as a conservative estimate. This outlook hints at a potential sharp recovery from the cycle’s bottom, according to the Bernstein analysis. Despite the conservative outlook, Deere maintains strong fundamentals with a P/E ratio of 25.39 and has demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining dividend payments for 55 consecutive years. InvestingPro data reveals 17 additional key insights about Deere’s financial health and market position, helping investors make more informed decisions.
In other recent news, Deere & Company reported impressive second-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, exceeding market expectations with earnings per share (EPS) of $6.64, surpassing the forecasted $5.56, and achieving revenue of $12.76 billion against a projected $10.98 billion. DA Davidson and Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James both highlighted the company’s strong performance, with DA Davidson maintaining a Buy rating and a $542 price target, while Raymond James raised its price target from $530 to $560, maintaining an Outperform rating. Truist Securities also increased its price target for Deere to $619, citing the company’s strong sales and improved margin performance.
The Production and Precision Agriculture segment was particularly noted for its strong performance, contributing to higher-than-expected equipment operating profits. Despite facing approximately $400 million in tariff-related costs expected in the second half of the year, Raymond James noted that Deere’s integrated model and sourcing strategy have minimized the impact on its largest segment. Truist Securities mentioned that despite a downward revision of net income forecast due to tariffs, Deere’s order book remains full through October, indicating a stable demand outlook.
Analysts at Raymond James adjusted their fiscal year 2025 EPS estimate to $19.25, with a projection of $21.80 for fiscal year 2026, expecting volume growth across all operating segments. The firm also expressed optimism about recovery prospects in agricultural segments, with potential legislative changes that could benefit the sector. Deere’s strategic focus on precision agriculture technologies and cost management has been crucial in maintaining strong margins, despite challenges in its Construction & Forestry segment, which did not meet sales and profitability expectations.
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