Deutsche Bank downgrades BASF stock to Hold on challenging industry outlook

Published 24/11/2025, 10:36
Deutsche Bank downgrades BASF stock to Hold on challenging industry outlook

Investing.com - Deutsche Bank downgraded BASF SE (ETR:BAS) stock rating from Buy to Hold on Monday, while lowering its price target to EUR45.00 from EUR51.00.

The German chemical giant has outperformed European cyclical chemicals by 21% year-to-date, but Deutsche Bank expects challenging industry conditions to persist into 2026.

The bank forecasts just 3% EBITDA growth for BASF in fiscal year 2026, which sits 4% below consensus estimates. Deutsche Bank notes that extrapolating the seasonally adjusted second-half 2025 run rate to fiscal year 2026 actually implies an EBITDA decline and 11% downside to consensus.

BASF currently trades at 7.8x 2026E EV/EBITDA, a premium to peers that Deutsche Bank considers fair given the company’s superior liquidity and better positioning within its peer group.

The downgrade reflects Deutsche Bank’s view that positive news catalysts are already behind BASF, including coatings disposals and share buyback announcements, while the bank has also cut its 2026-2027 EPS estimates by 10%.

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