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On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs analyst Ryan Nash reaffirmed a Sell rating on Bread Financial Holdings (NYSE:BFH), with a steady price target of $56.00. While Nash highlighted Bread Financial’s solid credit results, noting that delinquencies (DQs) and net charge-offs (NCOs) performed better than seasonal expectations, InvestingPro data shows that 7 analysts have recently revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period. The company, currently trading at $55.13 with a market cap of $2.58 billion, appears slightly undervalued according to InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis.
Nash’s analysis pointed out that DQs decreased by 22 basis points month-over-month to 5.74%, surpassing the anticipated seasonal decrease of 20 basis points. This marks a year-over-year improvement of 28 basis points, slightly better than the 31 basis point improvement seen in March. NCOs also showed a favorable trend, dropping 16 basis points month-over-month to 7.83%, which is significantly better than the expected seasonal increase of 21 basis points. On a year-over-year basis, NCOs are down 77 basis points, compared to a 63 basis point decrease in March. These improvements align with the company’s GOOD overall financial health score from InvestingPro, which offers comprehensive analysis of 1,400+ US stocks through its Pro Research Reports.
Despite these positive credit outcomes, end-of-period (EOP) loan growth did not meet seasonal expectations, with a modest underperformance. EOP receivables saw a slight month-over-month decline of 0.5% to $17.7 billion, falling short of the long-term seasonal expectation of flat growth and marking a 1.0% year-over-year decrease.
Nash suggests that the overall credit performance continues to exceed expectations, likely benefiting from the reversal of delayed tax payments. This trend was evidenced by a significant deviation from seasonality in February, followed by substantial improvements in March and April. The consistent decline in both year-over-year and month-over-month loans since the beginning of the year was also noted.
Given the improving credit conditions, Nash anticipates that the market will respond favorably to Bread Financial’s recent results. The market has already shown positive momentum, with the stock delivering an impressive 11.62% return over the past week. Despite Goldman Sachs’ cautious stance, the company maintains a P/E ratio of 9.59 and offers a 1.56% dividend yield. For deeper insights into Bread Financial’s valuation and growth potential, InvestingPro subscribers can access exclusive financial metrics and expert analysis.
In other recent news, Bread Financial Holdings reported robust financial results for the first quarter of 2025, surpassing Wall Street expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.86, significantly above the forecasted $2.28, and generated revenue of $970 million, exceeding predictions of $957.48 million. Additionally, Bread Financial disclosed a decline in both net loss and delinquency rates, with the net loss rate improving from 8.6% to 7.8% and the delinquency rate decreasing from 6.0% to 5.7%. The company attributed some of these improvements to strategic actions, such as freezing delinquency progression in hurricane-affected areas. Analysts at Citizens JMP maintained a Market Perform rating on Bread Financial’s stock, highlighting the company’s improved capital management strategies but noting competitive challenges, particularly from Buy Now, Pay Later services. Bread Financial also announced new partnerships, including a card program with crypto.com, which aligns with their focus on strategic growth and technology modernization. Despite these positive developments, the company remains cautious about near-term growth due to macroeconomic uncertainties, such as potential inflationary pressures.
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