Landstar stock target cut to $145 by TD Cowen, maintains hold

Published 03/04/2025, 15:32
Landstar stock target cut to $145 by TD Cowen, maintains hold

On Thursday, TD Cowen’s analyst Jason Seidl revised the price target for Landstar System (NASDAQ:LSTR), reducing it to $145 from the previous $161, while reiterating a Hold rating on the shares. The adjustment comes after the company’s recent update on its expectations for the first quarter, which includes a guidance cut due to softer pricing trends and significant fraud-related costs. According to InvestingPro data, the stock is currently trading near its 52-week low of $144.13, with analyst targets ranging from $130 to $186.

Landstar, during its agent network presentation in Florida this week, outlined strategic initiatives and provided an update on its first-quarter expectations. The company noted that March’s performance is trending below typical seasonality, and management has lowered earnings forecasts, suggesting a challenging run rate heading into spring. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains strong financial health with a current ratio of 1.96 and more cash than debt on its balance sheet.

The company also disclosed a multi-year fraud effort, highlighting an ongoing battle against fraud within the industry. In light of these developments, Seidl has adjusted the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 to $5.45 and $6.90, down from the previous estimates of $6.25 and $7.65, respectively.

The revised price target of $145 is based on a continued application of a 21x multiple to the updated 2026 EPS estimate. Despite the lowered price target and the challenges faced by Landstar, the Hold rating remains unchanged, as Seidl reiterated his stance on the stock.

In other recent news, Landstar System has updated its financial guidance for the first quarter of 2025, projecting revenue to align with the midpoint of its $1.075 billion to $1.175 billion range. However, the company anticipates earnings per share (EPS) to fall between $0.90 and $0.95, down from a previous forecast of $1.05 to $1.25, due to increased insurance and claims costs. This adjustment was reaffirmed by Goldman Sachs, which maintained a Sell rating with a $150 price target. Truist Securities also revised its price target for Landstar to $150 from $160, citing elevated insurance costs impacting future earnings. The firm projects Landstar’s EPS for 2025 and 2026 at $5.40 and $6.85, respectively. Meanwhile, Benchmark has kept its Hold rating on Landstar, noting the company’s ongoing investigation into a significant supply chain fraud that could further impact earnings by $0.35 to $0.50 per share. Despite these challenges, Landstar reported a slight revenue beat in Q4 2024, with earnings per share of $1.31 missing the forecasted $1.36. The company continues to focus on shareholder returns, having repurchased approximately 386,000 shares for $60 million in Q1 2025.

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