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Investing.com - Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has raised its price target on Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH) to $35.00 from $32.00 while maintaining an Equalweight rating on the stock. The company, currently trading at $37.78 and near its 52-week high of $38.77, appears undervalued according to InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis.
The firm increased its 2025 and 2026 revenue estimates by approximately low single digits, citing momentum across the company’s portfolio and a favorable foreign exchange tailwind. Morgan Stanley now models Tinder revenue growth at -4% in 2025 and 0% in 2026. The company maintains strong fundamentals with $3.45B in revenue and an impressive 72% gross profit margin.
Despite the revenue adjustments, Morgan Stanley’s profitability estimates remain largely unchanged. The firm noted that better cost of goods sold than anticipated could signal positive developments if direct payment adoption accelerates.
The firm’s adjusted operating income changes are less than -1% for 2025 and approximately 1% for 2026, primarily due to the higher revenue base. AOI margin is projected at -56 basis points in 2025 and roughly flat in 2026, accounting for a new one-off legal charge.
Morgan Stanley’s new $35 price target implies 7.75 times average 2026 and 2027 EBITDA as the firm rolls its valuation to midyear.
In other recent news, Match Group reported its second-quarter earnings for 2025, revealing steady revenue of $864 million, which slightly surpassed forecasts and exceeded the high end of guidance by $4 million. The earnings per share met expectations, although there was a slight decline in operating income. Analysts have responded to these results with several price target adjustments. JPMorgan raised its price target on Match Group to $33, citing early signs of a turnaround in the Tinder app and increased advertising revenue. Evercore ISI increased its price target to $38, describing the earnings as a "modest beat and raise," aided by favorable foreign exchange conditions. Goldman Sachs also raised its price target to $42, maintaining a Buy rating and highlighting ongoing product initiatives to enhance the Tinder app and strong performance in Hinge, especially in international markets. These developments reflect a cautious optimism among analysts regarding Match Group’s strategic initiatives and financial performance.
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